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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests


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15.6c to the 4th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Monthly Three players got it spot on this month. DiagonalRedLine, Leo97t and Quicksilver1989, with a further three players 0.1c out, B87, EdStone and seaside60. Seasonal Very close bet

The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm.  Based on that, the top scores for July were score _ fcst __ forecaster 10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C  9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow!  9.6 ___71.

July confirmed as 17.5c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.6c to the 4th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

In Roger's opening post it says the 61 to 90 average is 16.1, i keep guessing too far above average lately and wonder why i have done it about 5 days into it!, is it because of this i wonder?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

In Roger's opening post it says the 61 to 90 average is 16.1, i keep guessing too far above average lately and wonder why i have done it about 5 days into it!, is it because of this i wonder?

The 1961-90 average for the first 4 days of July are 15.5C and the daily mean increases till the end of July which is on average the warmest period of the year. The average of all the July days is 16.1C ?

It's all looking rather average at this stage but if we are somewhere between 0.5C and 1.0C above average by the middle of the month then those who guessed in the 17s are still in with a good chance.

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

The 1961-90 average for the first 4 days of July are 15.5C and the daily mean increases till the end of July which is on average the warmest period of the year. The average of all the July days is 16.1C ?

It's all looking rather average at this stage but if we are somewhere between 0.5C and 1.0C above average by the middle of the month then those who guessed in the 17s are still in with a good chance.

Right - that's what it is then - thanks, wrt my guess in months where there is not likely to be much deviation from the norm in the first half i always tend to go above average in an Ascending average temperature month or below average in a descending average temperature month unless there is a compelling reason not to, this month i actually thought we would have a very hot spell at the end, as i did for the last 2 months, but the Met Office seem to have poo-pooed that in their 30 dayer, got the hot spell last month right but it was too little too late and there was too much of a mountain to climb right at the end.

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Right - that's what it is then - thanks, wrt my guess in months where there is not likely to be much deviation from the norm in the first half i always tend to go above average in an Ascending average temperature month or below average in a descending average temperature month unless there is a compelling reason not to, this month i actually thought we would have a very hot spell at the end, as i did for the last 2 months, but the Met Office seem to have poo-pooed that in their 30 dayer, got the hot spell last month right but it was too little too late and there was too much of a mountain to climb right at the end.

I wouldn't worry about the 30 dayer, it's just an insight from the Met Office in their model output and can still change quickly at this range.

I also think I may have gone for a CET too high... but I don't mind Mid Atlantic highs as they may at least get rid of that annoying Atlantic cold blob in the lead up to next winter.

We seem to have reverted back to a run of more average weather, with a strong anticyclonic signal I thought it would be a matter of time before we tapped into some warmth. If the ECM is anything to go by though temperatures look rather average up to the halfway point.

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

I wouldn't worry about the 30 dayer, it's just an insight from the Met Office in their model output and can still change quickly at this range.

I also think I may have gone for a CET too high... but I don't mind Mid Atlantic highs as they may at least get rid of that annoying Atlantic cold blob in the lead up to next winter.

We seem to have reverted back to a run of more average weather, with a strong anticyclonic signal I thought it would be a matter of time before we tapped into some warmth. If the ECM is anything to go by though temperatures look rather average up to the halfway point.

im not a fan of warmth, i was talking just from the POV of the CET competition, to me the ECM looks a little above average - these are based on the ECM and the area a good representation of the CET.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/b5

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16.0c to the 5th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.2da04c78c313ffca30f35d0cb63603e6.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.7e4204b77c7b960afa19ee510dc962f0.pngimage.thumb.png.a3c0a0fdd47600e4c6ff77769a3a2b13.png   

A few more days of below or close to average weather before we get to enjoy a warm spell next for the latter half of next week. The CET never strays too far from the rolling anomaly, so a rather average July so far and for the foreseeable future.

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16.1c to the 6th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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To Rodger or Weather History, of the years with consecutive 18C summer months which years had the cooler second year.

I dont expect it but the timing of the Pacific standing wave has been pretty perfect and should keep things settled until at least the 20th.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Here is the rather short list of all consecutive years that had a summer month of 18.0 or higher ...

1975-76 (Aug 75 and Jul 76 both 18.7)

1989-90 (Jul 89 was 18.2, Aug 90 was 18.0)

1994-95 (Jul 94 was 18.0, Jul 95 18.6 and Aug 95 19.2)

(other close calls with 17.7 the minimum required)

1899-1901 (Aug 1899 was 17.8, Jul 1900 was 17.7, Jul 1901 was 18.0)

1933-34 (Jul 1933 was 17.8, Jul 1934 was 18.2)

2013-14 (Jul 2013 was 18.3, Jul 2014 was 17.7)

and if you drop the criterion to 17.6 that lets in a few more such as 1983-84 and 2003-04. 

 

 

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An above average first half to the month looks likely, but probably not more than 1 degree at the most, and a good chance might not see much of a rise in the coming days. A far cry from this time last year, when many were seeing maxes day by day above 25 degrees. It at least feels like summer, but on the back of last year, it all feels a bit lacklustre at the moment.

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Here's an arcane stat for you, the last time August was warmest month of the summer four or more times in a row was 1913 to 1916. None of them were particularly warm but July failed rather consistently in that interval. 

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16.1c to the 7th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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EWP tracker only 1 mm to 6th, probably not much added since then, and 10-15 mm on average predicted next ten days. The GFS 11-16 day maps look wetter. If you're interested in how a relatively dry 50 mm outcome would affect your scoring this is the July update using that provisional. Just speculation at this point though.

EWP20182019July.xlsx

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Was there a ground frost in sheltered parts of Scotland and north of England yesterday? We are entering the time of year when frost is least likely roughly mid July - mid August.

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16.0c to the 8th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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16.1c to the 9th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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