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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    16.8c and 84mm please.

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    Monthly Three players got it spot on this month. DiagonalRedLine, Leo97t and Quicksilver1989, with a further three players 0.1c out, B87, EdStone and seaside60. Seasonal Very close bet

    The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm.  Based on that, the top scores for July were score _ fcst __ forecaster 10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C  9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow!  9.6 ___71.

    July confirmed as 17.5c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    17.0C and 80mm, thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Slightly warmer and drier than average:

    17.1C and 45mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Working on the table of entries, have it ready to post at midnight or so ...

    These CET values are not yet taken (from 15.7 to 19.2, nothing outside that range yet except 22.0 and 13.7)

    15.8, 16.1, 16.3, 17.6, 17.8, 18.5, 18.6, 18.8, 18.9, 19.0, 19.1

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    16.9C and 91mms please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Table of entries to CET and EWP contests

    CET __ EWP __ Forecaster ________________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster

    22.0 __200.0__ Lettucing Gutted (8) __________16.9 __ 72.0 __ JeffC (14) ______________

    19.2 __ ----- __ Earthshine (39) ______________16.9 __ 30.0 __ The PIT (30) ____________ 

    18.7 __ 43.0 __ stewfox (22) ________________16.9 __ ----- __ Man with Beard (41) ______

    _______________________________________16.9 __ 69.8 __ average for 1989-2018

    18.4 __ 14.4 __ ChrisBell-notthe wxman (36) ___16.9 __ ----- __ damianslaw (32) _________

    18.3 __ 55.5 __ CheesepuffScott (7, 23.5) _____ 16.9 __ 91.0 __ Norrance (54) ___________

    18.2 __ 75.0 __ Polar Gael (12) _____________  16.8 __ 73.0 __ Let It Snow! (4) __________

    18.2 __ 34.0 __ emmett garland (21) _________ 16.8 __ 67.0 __ Stationary Front (43) _______

    18.2 __ 98.0 __ mizzle (40) _________________16.8 __ 84.0 __ Godber1 (47) _____________

    18.1 __ ----- __ matty007 (10) _______________16.8 __ 69.8 __ J10 (57) _________________

    18.0 __ 45.4 __ Roger J Smith (19) __________ 16.8 __ 71.0 __ jonboy (L1-2) _______

    17.9 __ 53.0 __ virtualsphere (13) ___________ 16.7 __ 98.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (16) ___________

    17.9 __ 57.3 __ brmbrmcar (34) _____________ 16.7 __ ----- __ summer blizzard (25) __________________

    17.9 __ 15.0 __ Big daddy 49 (49) ____________16.7 __118.0__ Blast from the Past (27) _______________

    17.7 __ 42.0 __ Feb1991blizzard (42) _________16.7 __ ----- __ Duncan McAlister (52) _________________

    _______________________________________ 16.7 __ 67.3 __ average for 1981-2010________________

    _______________________________________ 16.7 __ 64.0 __ Joneseye (L2-2) _____________________

    17.5 __ 70.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (11) _________16.6 __ 61.0 __ stargazer (33) _______________________

    17.5 __ 54.0 __ Leo97t (17) _________________16.6 __ 70.0 __ davehsug (55) _______________________

    17.5 __ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 (46) __________16.5 __ 70.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (23) ________________

    17.4 __ 48.0 __ B87 (15) ___________________16.5 __ ----- __ snowray (37) _________________________

    17.4 __ 74.0 __ Ed Stone (35) _______________16.4 __ ----- __ Jonathan F. (9) ________________________

    17.4 __ 54.0 __ seaside60 (L2-1) ____________ 16.4 __ ----- __ ProlongedSnowLover (L1-1) ______________

    17.3 __ ----- __ dancerwithwings (20) _________ 16.3 __ ----- __ Kentish Man (L2-3) _____________________

    17.3 __ 42.0 __ daniel* (51) _________________16.2 __ 60.0 __ weather-history (28) ____________________

    17.2 __ ----- __ Summer Sun (44) ____________ 16.2 __ 77.0 __ timmytour (29) _________________________

    17.2 __ 60.0 __ Don (53) ___________________16.0 __110.0__ nn2013 (2) ___________________________

    17.1 __ 73.1 __ Midlands Ice Age (31) ________ 16.0 __ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (24) _________________

    17.1 __ 44.0 __ DAVID SNOW (45) ___________16.0 __ 90.0 __ syed2878 (26) ________________________

    17.1 __ 45.0 __ Reef (50) ___________________15.9 __107.0__ Sunny Dazee (1) ______________________

    17.1 __ 77.0 __ Mulzy (56) __________________15.7 __120.0__ Weather26 (5) ________________________

    17.0 __100.0__ Bobd29 (3) __________________15.7 __100.0__ Relativistic (38) _______________________

    17.0 __ 65.0 __ DR(S)NO (18) _______________ 13.7 __400.0__ Thundershine (6) ______________________

    17.0 __ 80.0 __ BornFromtheVoid (48) ________

    17.0 __ ----- __ Andrew R (58) _______________

    17.0 __ 70.0 __ consensus _________________

    __ 58 on-time entries, plus two late (one day), and three that are two days late,

    __ __ 63 total forecasts, consensus 17.0 __ 

    ==================================================================================

    EWP forecasts in order __

    400 Tshine ... 200 LG ... 120 wx26 ... 118 BFTP ... 110 nn ... 107 sdaz ...100 Bobd, Rel ... 98 IRA252, miz

     91 Norr ... 90 syed ... 84 Godb ... 80 BFTV ... 77 ttour, Mulzy ... 75 PG ... 74 EdS ... 73.1 MIA ... 73 LIS ... 72 JeffC

     71 jon* ... 70.4 KW ... 70 DRL, dave, con ... 69.8 J10, 69.8 1989-2018  67.3 1981-2010  67 SF ... 65 DR(S)NO ... 64 Jones** 

     61 star ...  60 w-h, Don ... 57.3 brm ... 55.5 CPS ... 54 Leo, sea**.. 53 vir ... 48 B87 ... 45.4 RJS ... 45 Reef

     44 DS ... 43 stew ...  42 Feb, dan ... 34 emm g ... 30 PIT ... 15 Bigd ... 14.4 ChrisB

    _____________________

    45 on time entries, three late * or ** (* = days) __ 48 in total __ consensus 70.0 mm. 

     

     

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    A late 16.8 and 71mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2018 with running CET extremes

    date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2018 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2018

    01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

    02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.9 (1976) __ 11.0 (1907)

    03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 10.7 (1907)

    04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

    05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

    06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.7 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 

    07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877) ___23.5 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

    08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823) ___23.3 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907)

    09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

    10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993) _____ 22.3 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

    11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) _____ 22.0 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

    12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907)

    13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.6 (1976) __ 11.8 (1907)

    14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.4 (1976) __ 12.2 (1907)

    15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.4 (1879)

    16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879)

    17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892) _____ 20.7 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879)

    18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879)

    19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.5 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879)

    20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.3 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

    21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 20.0 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

    22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _____ 19.8 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

    23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.4 (1989) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (1976) __ 13.1 (1879)

    24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.5 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

    25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 22.7 (2006) __ 10.9 (1920) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

    26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

    27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 22.5 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

    28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891) __19.8 (2006) __ 13.2 (1879)

    29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879)

    30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

    31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841) ___19.7 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

    _________________________________________________

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.5c to the 1st

    0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

    0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    15.5c to the 2nd

    0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

    0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

    ________________________________

    Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

    Current low this month 15.5c to the 2nd

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

    image.thumb.png.702205588d3e95058474b8e23bb132ef.png

    The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

    image.thumb.png.972094dd6ec41fbea577af469cfba4e7.png   image.thumb.png.22b9225d7e0a76500e49a8425f1d19d8.png 

    The CET looks like remaining mostly below average for the rest of the week, before the GFS suggests a slightly more prolonged warm up.
    The first 10 days of the month very likely to come in below average overall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The ten driest months of July to follow a 100 mm + (wet) June were:

    YEAR ___ June EWP __ July EWP

    1863 _____ 109.4 _______ 29.3

    1982 _____ 129.1 _______ 33.9

    2016 _____ 114.0 _______ 43.6

    1971 _____ 110.7 _______ 44.7

    1833 _____ 107.9 _______ 47.8

    1795, 1997 _101.8, 132.2 _ 53.5

    1998 ______ 121.4 ______ 54.4

    1769 ______ 122.8 ______ 56.9

    1770 ______ 118.1 ______ 63.0

    Interesting that half of these were relatively recent (1971 to 2016). The average July rainfall following a 100+ June is about 90 mm and the average for those not in the list above is 101 mm. 

     

     

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    15.3c to the 3rd

    0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

    0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

    ________________________________

    Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

    Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

    Edited by Summer Sun
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