Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Roger J Smith

July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

Recommended Posts

Slightly warmer and drier than average:

17.1C and 45mm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Difficult one this month 17.3c and 42mm 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17.2C and 60mm please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Working on the table of entries, have it ready to post at midnight or so ...

These CET values are not yet taken (from 15.7 to 19.2, nothing outside that range yet except 22.0 and 13.7)

15.8, 16.1, 16.3, 17.6, 17.8, 18.5, 18.6, 18.8, 18.9, 19.0, 19.1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Table of entries to CET and EWP contests

CET __ EWP __ Forecaster ________________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster

22.0 __200.0__ Lettucing Gutted (8) __________16.9 __ 72.0 __ JeffC (14) ______________

19.2 __ ----- __ Earthshine (39) ______________16.9 __ 30.0 __ The PIT (30) ____________ 

18.7 __ 43.0 __ stewfox (22) ________________16.9 __ ----- __ Man with Beard (41) ______

_______________________________________16.9 __ 69.8 __ average for 1989-2018

18.4 __ 14.4 __ ChrisBell-notthe wxman (36) ___16.9 __ ----- __ damianslaw (32) _________

18.3 __ 55.5 __ CheesepuffScott (7, 23.5) _____ 16.9 __ 91.0 __ Norrance (54) ___________

18.2 __ 75.0 __ Polar Gael (12) _____________  16.8 __ 73.0 __ Let It Snow! (4) __________

18.2 __ 34.0 __ emmett garland (21) _________ 16.8 __ 67.0 __ Stationary Front (43) _______

18.2 __ 98.0 __ mizzle (40) _________________16.8 __ 84.0 __ Godber1 (47) _____________

18.1 __ ----- __ matty007 (10) _______________16.8 __ 69.8 __ J10 (57) _________________

18.0 __ 45.4 __ Roger J Smith (19) __________ 16.8 __ 71.0 __ jonboy (L1-2) _______

17.9 __ 53.0 __ virtualsphere (13) ___________ 16.7 __ 98.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (16) ___________

17.9 __ 57.3 __ brmbrmcar (34) _____________ 16.7 __ ----- __ summer blizzard (25) __________________

17.9 __ 15.0 __ Big daddy 49 (49) ____________16.7 __118.0__ Blast from the Past (27) _______________

17.7 __ 42.0 __ Feb1991blizzard (42) _________16.7 __ ----- __ Duncan McAlister (52) _________________

_______________________________________ 16.7 __ 67.3 __ average for 1981-2010________________

_______________________________________ 16.7 __ 64.0 __ Joneseye (L2-2) _____________________

17.5 __ 70.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (11) _________16.6 __ 61.0 __ stargazer (33) _______________________

17.5 __ 54.0 __ Leo97t (17) _________________16.6 __ 70.0 __ davehsug (55) _______________________

17.5 __ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 (46) __________16.5 __ 70.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (23) ________________

17.4 __ 48.0 __ B87 (15) ___________________16.5 __ ----- __ snowray (37) _________________________

17.4 __ 74.0 __ Ed Stone (35) _______________16.4 __ ----- __ Jonathan F. (9) ________________________

17.4 __ 54.0 __ seaside60 (L2-1) ____________ 16.4 __ ----- __ ProlongedSnowLover (L1-1) ______________

17.3 __ ----- __ dancerwithwings (20) _________ 16.3 __ ----- __ Kentish Man (L2-3) _____________________

17.3 __ 42.0 __ daniel* (51) _________________16.2 __ 60.0 __ weather-history (28) ____________________

17.2 __ ----- __ Summer Sun (44) ____________ 16.2 __ 77.0 __ timmytour (29) _________________________

17.2 __ 60.0 __ Don (53) ___________________16.0 __110.0__ nn2013 (2) ___________________________

17.1 __ 73.1 __ Midlands Ice Age (31) ________ 16.0 __ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (24) _________________

17.1 __ 44.0 __ DAVID SNOW (45) ___________16.0 __ 90.0 __ syed2878 (26) ________________________

17.1 __ 45.0 __ Reef (50) ___________________15.9 __107.0__ Sunny Dazee (1) ______________________

17.1 __ 77.0 __ Mulzy (56) __________________15.7 __120.0__ Weather26 (5) ________________________

17.0 __100.0__ Bobd29 (3) __________________15.7 __100.0__ Relativistic (38) _______________________

17.0 __ 65.0 __ DR(S)NO (18) _______________ 13.7 __400.0__ Thundershine (6) ______________________

17.0 __ 80.0 __ BornFromtheVoid (48) ________

17.0 __ ----- __ Andrew R (58) _______________

17.0 __ 70.0 __ consensus _________________

__ 58 on-time entries, plus two late (one day), and three that are two days late,

__ __ 63 total forecasts, consensus 17.0 __ 

==================================================================================

EWP forecasts in order __

400 Tshine ... 200 LG ... 120 wx26 ... 118 BFTP ... 110 nn ... 107 sdaz ...100 Bobd, Rel ... 98 IRA252, miz

 91 Norr ... 90 syed ... 84 Godb ... 80 BFTV ... 77 ttour, Mulzy ... 75 PG ... 74 EdS ... 73.1 MIA ... 73 LIS ... 72 JeffC

 71 jon* ... 70.4 KW ... 70 DRL, dave, con ... 69.8 J10, 69.8 1989-2018  67.3 1981-2010  67 SF ... 65 DR(S)NO ... 64 Jones** 

 61 star ...  60 w-h, Don ... 57.3 brm ... 55.5 CPS ... 54 Leo, sea**.. 53 vir ... 48 B87 ... 45.4 RJS ... 45 Reef

 44 DS ... 43 stew ...  42 Feb, dan ... 34 emm g ... 30 PIT ... 15 Bigd ... 14.4 ChrisB

_____________________

45 on time entries, three late * or ** (* = days) __ 48 in total __ consensus 70.0 mm. 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A late 16.8 and 71mm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2018 with running CET extremes

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2018 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2018

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.9 (1976) __ 11.0 (1907)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 10.7 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.7 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877) ___23.5 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823) ___23.3 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993) _____ 22.3 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) _____ 22.0 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.6 (1976) __ 11.8 (1907)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.4 (1976) __ 12.2 (1907)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.4 (1879)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892) _____ 20.7 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.5 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.3 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 20.0 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _____ 19.8 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.4 (1989) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (1976) __ 13.1 (1879)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.5 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 22.7 (2006) __ 10.9 (1920) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 22.5 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891) __19.8 (2006) __ 13.2 (1879)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841) ___19.7 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

_________________________________________________

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

16.5c to the 1st

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15.5c to the 2nd

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.5c to the 2nd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.702205588d3e95058474b8e23bb132ef.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.972094dd6ec41fbea577af469cfba4e7.png   image.thumb.png.22b9225d7e0a76500e49a8425f1d19d8.png 

The CET looks like remaining mostly below average for the rest of the week, before the GFS suggests a slightly more prolonged warm up.
The first 10 days of the month very likely to come in below average overall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ten driest months of July to follow a 100 mm + (wet) June were:

YEAR ___ June EWP __ July EWP

1863 _____ 109.4 _______ 29.3

1982 _____ 129.1 _______ 33.9

2016 _____ 114.0 _______ 43.6

1971 _____ 110.7 _______ 44.7

1833 _____ 107.9 _______ 47.8

1795, 1997 _101.8, 132.2 _ 53.5

1998 ______ 121.4 ______ 54.4

1769 ______ 122.8 ______ 56.9

1770 ______ 118.1 ______ 63.0

Interesting that half of these were relatively recent (1971 to 2016). The average July rainfall following a 100+ June is about 90 mm and the average for those not in the list above is 101 mm. 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15.3c to the 3rd

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...