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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

     

    (a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

    ... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ...

     

    25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

    19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

    19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

    19.1 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

    18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

    18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 5th warmest)

    18.6 ... 1995 (7th warmest)

    18.3 ... 2013 

    18.2 ... 1989

    18.0 ... 1994

    17.7 ... 1999, 2014 

    17.6 ... 2003

    17.3 ... 1991 

    17.2 ... 2001 

    17.1 ... 2010 

    16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 ... average for 1989-2018 (16.85) (highest 30-year average)

    16.8 ... 2017 ... average for 1991-2018 (emerging 1991-2020 normal) and 2001-2018

    16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010

    16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000

    16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008

    16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

    16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2018

    15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 

    15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900

    15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

    15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

    15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7)

    14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

    14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

    13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

    13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

    13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

    13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

    13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

    13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

     8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your July forecast by end of the day Sunday 30th June without penalty,

    or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

    =================================================================================

     

    (b) Optional EWP contest

    Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2019. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2019. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

     

    182.6 __ wettest (1828)

    140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

    _93.9 __ highest 30-year running average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

    _69.8 __ average for 1989-2018

    _67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

    _57.4 __ lowest 30-year running average (1971-2000)

    _26.3 __ driest since 1981 (1999)

    _15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

    __8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

    _____________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

    Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.2 per day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire

    I’ll have 15.9c and 107mm please

    Edited by SunnyDazee
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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    17.0C and 100mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny weather, thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks

    13.7°C, and 400mm of rain. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Wet and warm, plumey with a handful of tstorms in first half, a more troughy middle and a generally settled, warm end.

    18.3°C and 94.5mm

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    The misery of the 3rd millennium continues...  22C  :oldsad:  Last sub 14C July in 1922.  Last sub 15C July in 1988.  Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.

    200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I'm going to be abroad this July so it's bound to become quite warm or hot, I'll go for 17c please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

    18.1 please

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Will go for 17.5*C please. Generally warm and probably thundery, too!

    Rainfall: 70mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    18.2C and 75.0mm for me please. 

    Edited by Polar Gael
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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    16.9 C and 72 mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    17.0c and 65mm thank you please

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    17.3c....Cheers ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    18.7c 43mm 

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