July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Cloudy Edmonton is at 12.9c to the 9th which is 4.9c below normal.

So its usually actually warmer than here in Summer then, thats the problem for me, even if i could move anywhere, the only place i can think of thats cold all year round is Northern Greenland, even some parts of siberia are warmer than London in summer.

[cheeky_monkey]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So its usually actually warmer than here in Summer then, thats the problem for me, even if i could move anywhere, the only place i can think of thats cold all year round is Northern Greenland, even some parts of siberia are warmer than London in summer.

Statistically Edmonton is about a degree cooler In July than London and a degree warmer than Manchester (same latitude)..if you like cold it is one the coldest Cities in North America during the winter..winters are long and summers are short.

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Statistically Edmonton is about a degree cooler In July than London and a degree warmer than Manchester (same latitude)..if you like cold it is one the coldest Cities in North America during the winter..winters are long and summers are short.

What a place!!!   -   Every month but 3 has snowfall, every month but 4 has significant snowfall totals and every month but 5 have what most places in Britain would call heavy snowfall totals with some Astronomical totals in mid winter.

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What a place!!!   -   Every month but 3 has snowfall, every month but 4 has significant snowfall totals and every month but 5 have what most places in Britain would call heavy snowfall totals with some Astronomical totals in mid winter.

i have seen snow here in every month except August..last September we had more snow than even a snowy winter month in the UK

[Scorcher]

15 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Statistically Edmonton is about a degree cooler In July than London and a degree warmer than Manchester (same latitude)..if you like cold it is one the coldest Cities in North America during the winter..winters are long and summers are short.

Yes but as you say, there is more potential for very cool conditions there in the summer months. Also your minima seem to be quite low there on average even in summer. Looking at the records it sounds like there is also potential for some very hot spells from April onwards. There is a very sudden cool down in September by the looks of things too.

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 10th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

Speaking of local climates, where I am now will be one of the snowiest places I've lived, we're in some hills reaching about 2000 metres and ski resorts a few miles away, so the town (Rossland) gets regular snowfalls of one to two metres, which will be about three times the regular snowfall where we were living the past two winters (albeit 2017-18 had some heavy snowfalls there, 2018-19 was more subdued). I spent a few years in the Georgian bay snowbelt in the mid 1970s so it may rival that location. It doesn't get as cold as Edmonton in the winter here but a steady -5 to -10 sort of regime at this altitude, down in the nearby Columbia valley they get only a quarter of our snowfall and the average daytime high in January is about 3 C so some of the moisture is rain there. Looking forward to a brief look at this heavy snow followed by opportunities to read about it on the local facebook page from a safe distance in Jan-Feb. (not a skier these days) ...

Getting back to the CET/EWP focus, would estimate the EWP reached 3 or 4 mm after yesterday, it was 2 mm after 9th, and there were some rainfalls in northern England mostly on the 10th, but heavier rain stayed in Ulster and Scotland. The GFS shows 10-day amounts over the EWP grid that average about 25-30 mm (heavier in the north, lighter in the southwest). The following six days on the GFS 06z have perhaps 10 mm additional to that, so I still think that 50 mm might be a reasonable estimate. The CET looks like plenty of upside potential and could be headed up into the high 17s to near 18 by end of the run. (if BFTV does a ten-day estimate, I will guess that comes out near 17.2 but it looks even warmer beyond ten days). 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Speaking of local climates, where I am now will be one of the snowiest places I've lived, we're in some hills reaching about 2000 metres and ski resorts a few miles away, so the town (Rossland) gets regular snowfalls of one to two metres, which will be about three times the regular snowfall where we were living the past two winters (albeit 2017-18 had some heavy snowfalls there, 2018-19 was more subdued). I spent a few years in the Georgian bay snowbelt in the mid 1970s so it may rival that location. It doesn't get as cold as Edmonton in the winter here but a steady -5 to -10 sort of regime at this altitude, down in the nearby Columbia valley they get only a quarter of our snowfall and the average daytime high in January is about 3 C so some of the moisture is rain there. Looking forward to a brief look at this heavy snow followed by opportunities to read about it on the local facebook page from a safe distance in Jan-Feb. (not a skier these days) ...

Getting back to the CET/EWP focus, would estimate the EWP reached 3 or 4 mm after yesterday, it was 2 mm after 9th, and there were some rainfalls in northern England mostly on the 10th, but heavier rain stayed in Ulster and Scotland. The GFS shows 10-day amounts over the EWP grid that average about 25-30 mm (heavier in the north, lighter in the southwest). The following six days on the GFS 06z have perhaps 10 mm additional to that, so I still think that 50 mm might be a reasonable estimate. The CET looks like plenty of upside potential and could be headed up into the high 17s to near 18 by end of the run. (if BFTV does a ten-day estimate, I will guess that comes out near 17.2 but it looks even warmer beyond ten days). 

That means i have a chance of doing well in both, just off hand (don't expect anyone to troll through loads of threads), has anyone ever done the CET / EWP double before?, not necessarily bang on the nose but actually finishing No 1 in both competitions for the month?

[Roger J Smith]

Correction needed to this -- now I remember this detail too -- using Hadley we have seen a perfect combination, in October 2018, Midlands Ice Age had top score in both.

This is what I remembered but using the other scoring system I think it was more like 1st and 2nd there ... We had a look at that question about a year ago, IIRC the answer is technically no, checking back, there was a second/second combination and a first/third combination in 2018 (see later post and above edit). Since then I'm pretty certain nobody has done so. Will be fighting you for it this month (if my estimates above are correct) holding at 18.0 and 45 mm. What may make it tough is that to win CET you have to be either in early or go wide of consensus (later entries ranked lower), so an early call on CET with the EWP question to answer, of course you can change your EWP up to deadline and I rank similar guesses equally. (Also about a quarter of CET entrants don't make an EWP forecast so if one of those finishes first in CET, that rules out the double potential.)

Will see if I can find the discussion about this, it was towards the end of the first year of EWP so will look in November and work back from there. (later edit, decided to make a list instead, see next post of mine).

Edited July 11, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Okay, so I decided to track this statistic of "best combined forecast" -- it's not that much work, just opened up the 2017-18 CET scoring file and cross-referenced with EWP (will use Hadley for both years which will make a minor difference in some cases). The criterion will be simple -- lowest combined ranking based on the scoring systems used in each contest.

Then the list can be extended into this year using the latest CET file for June and the EWP scoring file.

LOWEST COMBINED RANKS (Best combined forecast) for each month

MONTH ___ FORECASTER __ RANKS (CET, EWP) _ Total __ any others under 12 combined

Dec 17 ____ Terminal Moraine __ 8, 2 ____________ 10 _____ none

Jan 18 ____ Stargazer ________ 1, 3 ______________4 _____ Polar Gael 8 (2, 6) .. BFTV 11 (9, 2)

Feb 18 ____ Midlands Ice Age __ 1, 6 ______________7 _____ Norrance 8 (6, 2) ... DAVID SNOW 11 (7, 4)

Mar 18 ____ Norrance _________ 6, 4 _____________10 _____ Roger J Smith 12 (10, 2)

Apr 18 ____ davehsug ________ 11, 4 _____________15 _____ none

May 18 ____ Polar Gael ________2, 2 ______________4 _____ Mapantz 9 (4, 5)

Jun 18 ____ Let it Snow! _______ 4, 3 ______________7 _____ none

Jul 18 _____ Singularity _______ 17, 4 ____________ 21 _____ none

Aug 18 ____ AlexisJ9*_________ 1, 4 ______________5*_____*tied with syed2878 (5 from 3, 2).

Sep 18 ____ Let it Snow! ______ 13, 7 ____________ 20 _____ none

Oct 18 ____ Midlands Ice Age ___ 1, 1 _____________ 2 _____ none

Nov 18 ____ Reef _____________7, 3 ____________ 10 _____ none

Dec 18 ____ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 4, 2 _____________ 6 _____ none (Reef 13 .. 8, 5)

Jan 19 ____ CheesepuffScott ____1, 8 _____________ 9 _____ Th Wintry Showers 11 (10, 1)

Feb 19 ____ Diagonal Red Line __1, 7 _____________ 8 _____ none

Mar 19 ____ Reef _____________5, 4 _____________ 9 _____ none

Apr 19 ____ Ed Stone _________ 5, 6 _____________11 _____ none

May 19 ___ daniel* ___________10, 5 _____________15 _____ none

Jun 19 ___ nn2013 ____________3, 7 _____________10 _____ Godber1 .. 12 (11, 1)

____________________________________________________________

Will maintain this list going forward. The average of the first 19 combined months is 9.5 for combined rank so around 5th in each contest is the average, there is no large statistical difference in whether CET or EWP ranks higher (averages 5.3 and 4.3). 

Edited July 11, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

Great work putting together all these stats Roger - thanks.

So Midlands Ice age has done the double then if im reading right.

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, the reason we didn't necessarily enshrine that fact was because in 2018 we were using the other version of EWP and I think MIA ranked 2nd in that. I should point out also that the scoring is based on first reported values and what you see in the EWP tables (eventually) is sometimes a bit different from the value used for scoring. That is now handled by the "ultimate scoring" table but we didn't have that in the first year. It's interesting that sometimes the whole field misses the general temp-precip "flavour" of the month as shown in a couple of outcomes in the table above. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.5C, +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 4.8mm 8.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.6c to the 11th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.6c to the 11th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

[feb1991blizzard]

This could be one of those months where it finishes very strikingly above average but with no out and out hot or very hot spells.

[Scorcher]

40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This could be one of those months where it finishes very strikingly above average but with no out and out hot or very hot spells.

Yes it could, minima have been quite high over the last few days with the humid air mass and a fair bit of cloud cover over much of the country.

It looks like there are going to be very few cool days but also very few properly hot days this month.

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 12th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.7c to the 12th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.6C +1.3C above normal. A surprise drop for today is possible unless the sun comes out. Rainfall unchanged

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.7C +1.3C above normal, Rainfall 5.8mm 10.2% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 13th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.7c to the 12th & 13th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

[summer blizzard]

Gavin was predicting 17.3C to the 28th.

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 14th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.7c to the 12th, 13th & 14th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was on 6 mm and probably still is today, then the ten-day GFS forecasts seem to have dropped a bit with heavy amounts only shown in the southwest, the grid average appears to be little more than 20 mm. From day eleven to end of the run (which is now almost end of July), would estimate another 20 mm, but GFS tendency is to reset to stronger zonality than sometimes actually happens in that range. So for now the provisional estimate of 50 mm and the excel file posted earlier remain in play. I have one prepared for 70 mm in case that higher outcome gets into play. There are one or two cases where somebody would end up more than one position away from the 50 mm table, top three would scramble to Reef, BFTV and seaside60. 

[The PIT]

Just noticed I missed writing up a day. So Sunny Sheffield at 16.6C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 6.4mm 11.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 15th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.7c to the 12th, 13th, 14th & 15th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd