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Roger J Smith

July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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(a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ...

 

25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

19.1 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 5th warmest)

18.6 ... 1995 (7th warmest)

18.3 ... 2013 

18.2 ... 1989

18.0 ... 1994

17.7 ... 1999, 2014 

17.6 ... 2003

17.3 ... 1991 

17.2 ... 2001 

17.1 ... 2010 

16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 ... average for 1989-2018 (16.85) (highest 30-year average)

16.8 ... 2017 ... average for 1991-2018 (emerging 1991-2020 normal) and 2001-2018

16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010

16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000

16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008

16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2018

15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 

15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900

15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7)

14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your July forecast by end of the day Sunday 30th June without penalty,

or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

=================================================================================

 

(b) Optional EWP contest

Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2019. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2019. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

 

182.6 __ wettest (1828)

140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

_93.9 __ highest 30-year running average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

_69.8 __ average for 1989-2018

_67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

_57.4 __ lowest 30-year running average (1971-2000)

_26.3 __ driest since 1981 (1999)

_15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

__8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.2 per day.

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Posted (edited)

I’ll have 15.9c and 107mm please

Edited by SunnyDazee

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A safe 16.0c and 110mm please. 

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17.0C and 100mm please

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Posted (edited)

20.1°C  Massive change on the way 😉

Edited by Earthshine

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Wet and warm, plumey with a handful of tstorms in first half, a more troughy middle and a generally settled, warm end.

18.3°C and 94.5mm

 

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The misery of the 3rd millennium continues...  22C  :oldsad:  Last sub 14C July in 1922.  Last sub 15C July in 1988.  Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

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I'm going to be abroad this July so it's bound to become quite warm or hot, I'll go for 17c please.

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Will go for 17.5*C please. Generally warm and probably thundery, too!

Rainfall: 70mm

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Posted (edited)

18.2C and 75.0mm for me please. 

Edited by Polar Gael

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16.9 C and 72 mm please

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17.4c and 48.0mm

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17.0c and 65mm thank you please

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18.7c 43mm 

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