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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is this trough ever going to get past the BI?

this high is gaining strength on every run,put is this way,it was modelled to cross the uk by the end of the week but now the weekend and maybe beyond,stubborn blocks and all!

 

I notice that there is considerable uncertainty about the timing of any breakdown to cooler / fresher weather..always a good sign that the summery spell could be prolonged / sustained.?

Edited by Jon Snow
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I've lost track of the amount of times I've gasped at model output this week - this Icon run doesn't have too much of a North Sea legacy - I would expect mid 30s widely across the UK on this 

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whereas the UKMO has more of a North Sea track so uppers won't convert quite as wonderfully to surface temperatures - though its still expect it to be hot away from the east 

UW120-21.GIF?22-17

Edited by Man With Beard
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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Germany says.... Vorsprung durch Technik..... You beauty icon... If it sends this heat any further North... We will have Shetland in on some of the action... 

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I always said the icon was ICONIC!!!??

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Wedge of very high uppers on the GFS looks broader and stretched further west on this run. May be a good plume incoming.

Edited by MattStoke
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Unbelievable ukmo !!ridiculous heat!!and gfs finally comes in line with the euros aswell!!!get ready folks this is gona be a week to remember for some!!feel the heat already outside!!

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11 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

This is why we should take the model output with A high level of caution. Anyone spot a pattern? and this is at T66...

image.thumb.png.dacfe454120525075f3423384a1c073c.pngimage.thumb.png.d761a8eea651ef0f84d6ef8128897e10.png  image.thumb.png.24a998fbeacc609fd6592597bb6ae6ac.pngimage.thumb.png.3143fb41444c896bbb05680352b63bfc.png  

Hmm good point,  the old "shift east over into Belgium" card oh dear

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1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

Hmm good point,  the old "shift east over into Belgium" card oh dear

Are you serious? That's a genuine question by the way  ? 

The main pulse of the plume for us doesn't come at t66, it comes later in the week as we draw in a more continental influence. That's when our highest uppers are forecast. I'm not sure what @Quicksilver1989 is hinting at, those charts are broadly very similar so I am keen, as an amateur model watcher, to see what the pattern is?

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Just now, seabreeze86 said:

GFS goes with the euros and keeps the low cut off, could get crazy uppers on this run. For us East coast dwellers we need the flow to turn more southerly so feel the real heat

Screenshot_20190622-170415.png

Yes quite a strong easterly element here but very pleasing to see the low fully cut off for a change with the GFS.

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6 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Hmm good point,  the old "shift east over into Belgium" card oh dear

Yeah I think people are completely overlooking this, a few days ago Tuesday was looking dead cert to be a hot day with temperatures getting over 30C...

Now its just looking like uppers will only be 10-12C whilst a few days ago they were 15C-20C. If such a change has happened, how in any way can we be certain Thursday or Friday be that hot?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Unbelievable ukmo !!ridiculous heat!!and gfs finally comes in line with the euros aswell!!!get ready folks this is gona be a week to remember for some!!feel the heat already outside!!

UKMO ??

Into the furnace we go boys n gals ..!!

 

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah I think people are completely overlooking this, a few days ago Tuesday was looking dead cert to be a hot day with temperatures getting over 30C...

Now its just looking like uppers will only be 10-12C whilst a few days ago they were 15C-20C. If such a change has happened, how in any way can Thursday or Friday be that hot?

I understand the caution (we've been burned before!), but we have all the models pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet with an initial glance of the plume and thundery troughs for us, then a more sustained feed of hotter air off the continent as the low to the SW gets cut off and draws up the plume with an increasingly hot SE feed.

To my eyes, we need the low cut off first before we draw the really hot air in, hence why we plume later on in the week.

Edited by Onding
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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You would of thought with these uppers it would be sweltering but mid twenties on the 2m temps . Suits me fine the less heat the better . 

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That’s 100% wrong. No way will the temps be that low.

Edited by Djdazzle
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