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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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This raw data from eps generally understates maxes by a few degrees but allowing for that, we still don’t see the kind of maxes some are expecting to see in the se ....... can someone link to the site where you can key in your location and see all the eps data graphically 

AD9D87D4-D884-4755-AA25-43D16979AC42.thumb.jpeg.8baec74709edcc401e2eefe73726bac4.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This raw data from eps generally understates maxes by a few degrees but allowing for that, we still don’t see the kind of maxes some are expecting to see in the se ....... can someone link to the site where you can key in your location and see all the eps data graphically 

AD9D87D4-D884-4755-AA25-43D16979AC42.thumb.jpeg.8baec74709edcc401e2eefe73726bac4.jpeg

https://meteologix.com/ie/forecast/2638867-st-albans/ensemble/euro

https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/euro/england

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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With quite a few locations already reaching their predicted maxes (BBC and presumably derived from the models) it seems maxes might already be being underestimated?

FWIW, whichever model NW uses, in making its 7-/14-day forecasts, has maxes ranging from 21-25C, over here, next week. And RH values mostly in excess of 70%...

But, I must say, I've never before seen such high 850s produce only relatively meagre 2m maxes before. Then again, I've never witnessed such high 850s before. Period!:shok:

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Hottest conditions in the UK tend to occur after a  spell of dry and hot conditions .

So it’s not just the upper air temps that are important . For this reason how much rain falls before the heat arrives will be important .

Areas that have a more sandy type soil are likely to dry out quicker and also heat up faster .

Its for this reason that Gravesend often tops the heat charts . As long as the flow is offshore I’d expect that to do very well .

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Hottest conditions in the UK tend to occur after a  spell of dry and hot conditions .

So it’s not just the upper air temps that are important . For this reason how much rain falls before the heat arrives will be important .

Areas that have a more sandy type soil are likely to dry out quicker and also heat up faster .

Its for this reason that Gravesend often tops the heat charts . As long as the flow is offshore I’d expect that to do very well .

No sign of an offshore flow this week for se England 

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No sign of an offshore flow this week for se England 

I was talking more of Gravesend . It needs to be south or south east there, even ese , later in the week more likely if the ECM is correct .

Edited by nick sussex
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4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Out of my temporary summer hibernation seeing as there’s some pretty outlandish heat showing up .

Not sure what the record is for highest 850 temp ever recorded in the UK but a couple of those ECM ensembles showing 27 would surely be exceptionally rare.

Unfortunately for heat lovers the GFS really is on a different page with the low and high set up .

Without the high to the ne it’s not possible to draw up the hottest air on its western flank .

Looking at the ECM ensemble mean and spread , the latter shows that the 20 850 value is almost nailed on for at least the far south which does call into question the GFS view.

We’ll see during the day whether there’s any backtrack from it .

This one time Nick, I'm in love with your limpet trough just west of us, may it stay there a long time :air_kiss::oldlaugh:

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I was talking more of Gravesend . It needs to be south or south east there, even ese , later in the week more likely if the ECM is correct .

I don’t think we get a decent sse flow until the forecast becomes less reliable end of the week 

up until then it’s too onshore imo for gravesend 

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

No sign of an offshore flow this week for se England 

A S/SE windflow is ideal for places inland in the SE due to the short sea track and continental landmass heat being imported. It’s when the winds turn to the E that places further west do better. 

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5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Great finish to the Ecm 0z ensemble mean with a strong azores high / ridge building in!?

EDM1-240.gif

Look at that boundary of red so massive and hot and inportantly in the righr place for us. Imagine what july could bring

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I think its academic at this stage talking about temperatures when the details are so uncertain. The models are showing how subtle differences can make a difference where the main bulk of the heat will end up. Most runs i seen do show a direct hit but there is always a chance it could end too far eastwards if the troughing is too close.

One thing for sure, it be interesting watching the forecasts and seeing day by day what temperatures they are predicting, 31C i think i saw so far.

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Solved my temperature dilemma on the ECM charts! Studied lots of ensembles... basically, for Thurs/Fri some ensembles have a flow coming exclusively from the north sea (that is, originating from the top of Norway but always offshore), some go down the north sea but then spend a little time over the continent before returning to the UK, and others do not have a significant flow from the north sea at all. 

The latter types of runs look like getting to the mid 30s, the first type the mid 20s, and the middle set... somewhere in the middle. 

The difference in profile between a North sea flow and a non- north sea flow is very small!! 

The key to an extremely hot week will be to get the high to our north to combine a little more successfully with high pressure to the east. That stops the exclusive north sea flow. Indeed the UKMO 00Z already gets most of the way there, and I'd imagine temps on this model would have been high this morning. 

So tonight, look out for isobars that track the north sea. If they do, cooler air is getting into the surface flow. If they don't and we also have high uppers, the sky's the limit on temperatures. It will be a very close thing! 

Edited by Man With Beard
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I think for midweek a north easterly wind looks likely. Just a case of how long this lasts before the surface high becomes more favourable to drive the heat northwards. 

One thing I have noticed is that cloud amounts don’t look too bad with sunny (if rather chilly) conditions along eastern coasts being forecast.

So probably Friday at the moment is the point we could see temperatures rise sharply. This could change of course but the longer that heat persists into the weekend, the hotter it could possibly get.

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4 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Icon 12z. Wow. 24 uppers in again across the south. Best run so far? 20c almost nation wide at 850hpa. 40c anyone...

 

icon-1-150.png

How about all the way to North Scotland?

icon-1-153_cpc5.png

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

 

I think in fairness, some of the responces which contain 'boom' 'bang' etc are peoples initial reactions to a run and there is that excitment which spills into peoples posts but i dont believe its there to mislead. Indeed when i viewed last nights UKMO and especially ECM runs, i even said 'wow' to myself because they were exceptional summer charts which are in the medium range so a good possibility something like that could happen. On the other end of the scale, i saw the GFS 18Z run and that bought any excitment right back down to reality.

I think overall the main trends are it is set to warm up for most with most places upto the mid twenties by Tuesday and most definately by Wednesday except eastern areas with the on shore wind. The question is though just how far northwards and westwards will the main pulse of heat will go and sadly more runs are needed to be sure to the answer to that.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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The escape of the upper low drives the second plume and the Uber high uppers ....

that evolution currently quite uncertain so continue to ruminate away ......could be an ante climax but on the other hand ..........

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Is this trough ever going to get past the BI?

this high is gaining strength on every run,put is this way,it was modelled to cross the uk by the end of the week but now the weekend and maybe beyond,stubborn blocks and all!

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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It's very rare that I sit at the computer and watch and models come out in the summer and yet here we are! 

icon-1-159.thumb.png.aae987badd4e27abf2b1fef98379c387.png

That is some serious heat being pumped up by the ICON there. I doubt we'll have agreement this afternoon but I suspect the GFS will somewhat continue to backtrack from the other models. It seems the upgrade hasn't really resolved any of it's long standing problems/biases.

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