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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Friday's chart looks interesting: 19C T850s and close proximity to the trough; someone might see some cracking T-storms?

    h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

    And the Azores HP looks poised to take over...?:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    The 06z gfs is not backing down. Indeed for Ireland the heat doesn't build at all. That's as far as Friday anyway

    I'm still expecting a superb 6z ensemble mean (for next week)..much more reliable than an operational!!?

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Fabulous GFS6Z ?

    Heat and some storms thrown in for good measure..

    Hot by friday ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    6 minutes ago, IDO said:

    Still big differences in how GFS and ECM handle the cut-off low:

    ECM1-120.thumb.gif.1332585891103002d519985c866928e2.gifgfs-0-126.thumb.png.3ba96013f47a0d2ce0c68a310fab08b4.png

    ECM0-120.thumb.gif.6f77b516485c6b7762a0339452f7b405.gifgfs-1-126.thumb.png.fc25220946b6b51d78cca9c6a3ce8f36.png

    This does impact how far west the higher uppers ingress and to the length of the hot spell and of course whether we get an Atlantic ridge at D10? The 06z another step back east of the pattern compared to the 0z.

    So which is correct?

    From an admittedly sorta selfish point of view, am hoping the ECMWF wears the crown of victory for this setup. I think part of the reason is just being interested in how warm and/hot things get next week (but I respect that not everyone likes that weather and, for some, hot weather can be a bit too much. Especially the humid and sticky kind). 

    While the GFS can’t be totally forgotten about, it just seems a little messy at the moment! Guess we’ll see though! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    25c and high humidity would not be disappointing, following the abysmal start to summer..all of June so far!!?

    How about 25C and low humidity? 

    Most of the population wouldn’t mind warm/hot weather if it wasn’t muggy or sticky.

    I’m hoping for the models to show a less humid (but still sunny and warm) outcome.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham

    Hot GFS once again although the 20c 850s are delayed a bit again. Would be willing to call it if it ever does appear by T96... 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Hot GFS once again although the 20c 850s are delayed a bit again. Would be willing to call it if it ever does appear by T96... 

    Gfs = hot humid potentially stormy..

    At last, beautiful charts for summer weather fans..

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Struggling to keep up with you all folks... By the time I had sorted my post and charts out... They had become out of date.... The FV3 bringing plenty of heat... ECM is a peach this morning... The plume hits us literally directly! And that Azores ridging by 10 is evident yet again... I'm led to believe ukmo is also a beauty... What more could we wish for!! 

    ECM0-120.gif

    ECM0-144.gif

    ECM0-168.gif

    ECM1-216.gif

    ECM1-240.gif

    gfs-1-120.png

    gfs-1-132 (1).png

    gfs-1-144 (1).png

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    This is more like it, ECM approaching outrageous 26C 850s http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.phmap=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

      Meanwhile GFS 6z is a definite upgrade from the 00z. Heat being more widespread next Weds onwards.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    06z again an improvement on the previous two runs, although still not as good as ECM and UKMO. Good to see the old GFS is more like them too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Interesting to see a large Scandi LP with warm, rather than cold, air in its circulation?

    h850t850eu.png h500slp.png

    Way too far out in la la land to worry about, though.:oldgrin:

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 6z mean becomes increasingly hot and sultry next week..all systems are go for launch!!!???????

    GFSAVGEU06_60_2.png

    GFSAVGEU06_60_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_84_2.png

    GFSAVGEU06_84_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_108_2.png

    GFSAVGEU06_108_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_132_2.png

    GFSAVGEU06_132_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_156_2.png

    GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    My view on looking through the GEFS 6z ensembles is that there is fewer of the bonkers runs with +24C uppers but more of a consensus as per the ECM mean of +20C uppers pretty much nailed on now.

    I did find this bad boy from the GEM suite at T150 though...

    image.thumb.jpg.d06fc4dd89c44b2d30dff8cefa36bdf6.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Our favourite cannon fodder model the NAVGEM 06 hrs run looks like it’s moved to the Euros solutions .

    It’s moved the intense heat further north and west right into the UK.

    Historically these plumes are difficult to model because we often see them get to northern France and edge ne a bit too far east often clipping the far south and se. However barring the GFS the trends so far today are for a more direct hit .

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And when the ECM has this: ecm500.120.png at Day 5, and this:ecm500.240.png at Day 10, not getting excited is a hard thing to do!:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I don't really like the GFS solutions today - bringing the trough much closer and things get a bit messy.

    The ECM op take on things is really interesting though - just look what happens to the Biscay low

    image.thumb.png.638a9af42c839e98fd1c107e5558a7f5.png
    image.thumb.png.4b5a8427badf3f7644201e6fd84f2df4.png

    image.thumb.png.8674df49fc9bc879cf1a6aaf0d9c069b.png

    image.thumb.png.f25eef0b32ef6d3bf400f2843fdddf2f.png

    image.thumb.png.6cf0ec35f6d36ae784d15929f3980685.png

    It just goes straight to the north, so we go from Iceland high/Biscay low at 96 hours, to the reverse at 192 - leading to the settled weather at day 9/10. Much more preferable.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    As Nick just pointed out, the Navgem is raising the bar for a direct hit of heat... Basically it's saying, over to you big boys.... Try and beat that!! This model gets my boom of the day for sure.. 

    navgem-1-114.png

    navgem-1-120.png

    navgem-1-132.png

    navgem-1-144.png

    tenor.gif

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I don't really like the GFS solutions today - bringing the trough much closer and things get a bit messy.

    The ECM op take on things is really interesting though - just look what happens to the Biscay low
    image.thumb.png.638a9af42c839e98fd1c107e5558a7f5.pngimage.thumb.png.4b5a8427badf3f7644201e6fd84f2df4.pngimage.thumb.png.8674df49fc9bc879cf1a6aaf0d9c069b.pngimage.thumb.png.f25eef0b32ef6d3bf400f2843fdddf2f.pngimage.thumb.png.6cf0ec35f6d36ae784d15929f3980685.png

    It just goes straight to the north, so we go from Iceland high/Biscay low at 96 hours, to the reverse at 192 - leading to the settled weather at day 9/10. Much more preferable.

    Agreed, something has to give soon and probably in the next 24-36hrs they’ll be some alignment. GFS appears to be out on its own but even this mornings ECM has surface maxes lower than you’d expect under the airmass, clearly ‘cooler’ being trapped at the surface initially. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    11 minutes ago, Interitus said:

    Largely fine, but of course much cooler.

    Aye but great weather start to Wimbledon, still 25 degrees and less humid, much better actually

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Aye but great weather start to Wimbledon, still 25 degrees and less humid, much better actually

    And what comes after may be very good if that Azores High ridges in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    14 minutes ago, Interitus said:

    Largely fine, but of course much cooler.

    Briefly cooler / fresher but the heat would soon build again once the high has built in properly and then transferred to the east!!? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Agreed, something has to give soon and probably in the next 24-36hrs they’ll be some alignment. GFS appears to be out on its own but even this mornings ECM has surface maxes lower than you’d expect under the airmass, clearly ‘cooler’ being trapped at the surface initially. 

    Something is already giving - the GFS. It has backtracked on its last 2 runs.

    And don’t worry about the surface maxes at this range.

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    Message added by Paul

    This thread = Models, models and more models
    Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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