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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Am I right in thinking the second half of the working week looks drier following a thundery mon / tues and then probably thundery again next weekend?

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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Am I right in thinking the second half of the working week looks drier following a thundery mon / tues and then probably thundery again next weekend?

Depends what model you believe, and even then it’s so hard to pin down the detail.

I’m pleased with the overall picture this morning, especially after going to bed having seen the GFS 18z. 00z still the least preferable option, but better than the 18z.

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5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Depends what model you believe, and even then it’s so hard to pin down the detail.

I’m pleased with the overall picture this morning, especially after going to bed having seen the GFS 18z. 00z still the least preferable option, but better than the 18z.

I was leaning more towards the king of models..the Ecm ??

Edited by Jon Snow
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The peak of th heat seems to be moved from Tuesday - Wednesday-Thursday to Friday - Saturday. The new gfs doesn't seem to back the outcome of the ECM and this does worry me. The GFS only models low 20s for even London on Tuesday:(

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8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder what the hottest ECM ensemble is, when you think the 168hr ensemble mean is this

0co8Afk.png

I don't recall seeing those uppers as far north as manchester Kevin.

Perhaps next week will be one for the record books?

 

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12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder what the hottest ECM ensemble is, when you think the 168hr ensemble mean is this

0co8Afk.png

I can't get them but here's some of the hottest individual runs for next Saturday on the ECM 850s

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m35.thumb.png.f21234696c5f33f5e60991771a7acabb.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m31.thumb.png.fc99e43383de6b00b75d25caa0a12eb2.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m25.thumb.png.a2c13d4928876930ffad6c91f9aea7c3.png

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m24.thumb.png.b3e34d0c11779074fd35f6596594f3a1.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m21.thumb.png.19dadb119503175a72c911957cd3c534.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m13.thumb.png.a1bad8168fc142cecc178cfd2b144307.png

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m5.thumb.png.f75913f4bfe09e210338d6b5ad598340.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m4.thumb.png.705958a1faaa291e2bc9d6e8b9e7f924.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m3.thumb.png.6414cf1ffbac4c59743c5762bd8ecb34.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

The peak of th heat seems to be moved from Tuesday - Wednesday-Thursday to Friday - Saturday. The new gfs doesn't seem to back the outcome of the ECM and this does worry me. The GFS only models low 20s for even London on Tuesday:(

I agree, GFS has led the way with this plume, so i would be dishonest if i didn't say we need GFS on board with the evolution.

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

I agree, GFS has led the way with this plume, so i would be dishonest if i didn't say we need GFS on board with the evolution.

 

But it’s a GFS trait to lead with the initial evolution then back away as it approaches, then jump back on board.

How many times have we seen this?

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Great finish to the Ecm 0z ensemble mean with a strong azores high / ridge building in!?

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

But it’s a GFS trait to lead with the initial evolution then back away as it approaches, then jump back on board.

How many times have we seen this?

I dont disagree but it would still be a bonus to have the model onside.

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Oh my days what a start to the day!!gfs has most certainly done a backtrack cos ive just compared the 00z charts to 12z and 18z last night and the low has started to cut off a lott more just like the ecm and ukmo and backs the heat further west!!and as for ecm and ukmo well lets put it this way i have never seen the 20 degree isotherm make that much inroads in my 20 years of model watchin!!what a time to upgrade literally a day before this muggy and thundery weather is to start!!?☀️?

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27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I can't get them but here's some of the hottest individual runs for next Saturday on the ECM 850s

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m35.thumb.png.f21234696c5f33f5e60991771a7acabb.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m31.thumb.png.fc99e43383de6b00b75d25caa0a12eb2.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m25.thumb.png.a2c13d4928876930ffad6c91f9aea7c3.png

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m24.thumb.png.b3e34d0c11779074fd35f6596594f3a1.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m21.thumb.png.19dadb119503175a72c911957cd3c534.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m13.thumb.png.a1bad8168fc142cecc178cfd2b144307.png

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m5.thumb.png.f75913f4bfe09e210338d6b5ad598340.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m4.thumb.png.705958a1faaa291e2bc9d6e8b9e7f924.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019062112_198_18_308_m3.thumb.png.6414cf1ffbac4c59743c5762bd8ecb34.png

 

Those are the 12z from last nights run charts @Summer Sun ?

I'm sad and had a look through all 51 members for the ECM for the 00z, the hottest members are 13, 18, 22, 28, 29, 31 & 43 - these all have 25c 850s, plenty of others are over 20c too.

Member 29 has the 27c isotherm clipping the south coast.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m29_temperature-850hpa/20190628-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/west-sussex/m29_temperature-850hpa/20190628-1800z.html

Edited by mb018538
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Out of my temporary summer hibernation seeing as there’s some pretty outlandish heat showing up .

Not sure what the record is for highest 850 temp ever recorded in the UK but a couple of those ECM ensembles showing 27 would surely be exceptionally rare.

Unfortunately for heat lovers the GFS really is on a different page with the low and high set up .

Without the high to the ne it’s not possible to draw up the hottest air on its western flank .

Looking at the ECM ensemble mean and spread , the latter shows that the 20 850 value is almost nailed on for at least the far south which does call into question the GFS view.

We’ll see during the day whether there’s any backtrack from it .

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Looks like 2 rounds of convection 

First starting tomorrow as low trundles in, then heat pushes it back west , before it tries to come back in next week.  Similar setup that gave Finland 33C or so a month ago but back then we were the ground zero for the low. This time we get to enjoy the southern blast instead due to it being out west.  

Then later in week as the heat builds 

Both forms will be elevated I think, homegrown elevated. We are either used to surface based homegrown storms or elevated from France. So will make a nice change to form our own, (last good example july 2014)

Edited by StormChaseUK
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Definately an emphasis now from the majority of the models in favour of the core of the heat occuring towards the latter part of the week (Thursday-Saturday currently.) In a way its an upgrade because the heat is stretched out for a longer period allowing for a more substained spell rather than just for a couple of days.

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the latest ICON 06 hrs run to T120 hrs  that’s definitely not following the GFS 00 hrs run.

Nick good to have you back!!im not normally posting during the summer but these charts have defo got me out of hibernation aswell!!exceptional charts!!

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All the main models are now agreed on one thing: there'll be hot weather around, next week...But, that's the easy part: while some models want to truncate the heat, others'll want to prolong it; some models will predict thunderstorms here, others there...?

But one thing is certain (I think, from memory): summers that have week-longish spells of hot/very hot weather often turn out to be warm over all: 1975, '76, '83, '89, '90, '95, 2006, '13 and '18?

So, I wouldn't get too downhearted, should model-x (or y or z) predict a cool-down by next weekend...But after next weekend, my 'logic' goes flying out of the window, and should some models start extending, extending and further extending the heat, I'll be as irrationally over-excited and prone to hyperventilation as anyone!:yahoo:

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Many seem to have forgotten that FV3 is still known to have significant weaknesses. This should increase scepticism of it when it’s differing markedly to all the other models including its predecessor, especially at just 3-4 days range.

Somehow it just can’t seem to organise a dominant surface low for the cut-off trough west of Iberia or the ridge to the north of it.

 

Regardless - there’s a lot of spread for how far a shallow disturbance on the NE flank of the trough makes it N and E. This affects how quickly the heat builds in Tue-Wed and hence how quickly the ‘thunderstorm zone’ moves away to the west (as upper warmth builds while surface warmth stays similar or lowers as a result of the surface flow crossing the N Sea; the vertical profile becomes more stable).

Then it’s a matter of how much ridging extends to our NE Thu-Fri to ‘trap’ the heat and draw it northwest a bit.

After that, how much that ridge gains independence to our near-east looks important, assuming it’s built across to begin with. Atlantic setup critical here with ECM showing what’s needed to keep high pressure and summer warmth/heat going.

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