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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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The uppers on UKMO are staggeringly good, if you like heat of course ...

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ECM 0z seems to be relatively consistent compared to its last run, 20’c isotherm in the South by Thursday and 24’c isotherm clipping Cornwall and looks to advect further northwards too. Low remains cut off which is good ofc!

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There's a very good thread been started for discussing all things Glastonbury including weather conditions. A few posts have been moved over there. :oldsmile:

 

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ECM again getting the very warm uppers into the UK by Thursday.

ECM0-144_gak7.GIF

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Nae bad..I've seen worse!!!!!!!!!!!!!😜🤪

144_thickuk.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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Both Ukmo and ECM have the 20+ isotherm well north by as next week progresses. The uppers are actually higher than predicted temperatures for my location! Also I’ve never seen such remarkable uppers at +144 from Ukmo before. Could be an interesting end of next week as the Atlantic front tries to nudge in

F2E4A4AB-2959-4272-AE27-CE42FC02D56F.jpeg

BC04183B-F7FD-485E-A647-033255FD3F3B.jpeg

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Well the GEFS have definitely downgraded the extreme heat shown over the last few days . But the ECM/ UKMO still going for it . Funny how gfs was on its own with the heat and spotted it first and now it’s dropped the major heat and ECM / UKMO are now showing major heat . 

8AAAB886-6D9B-42B8-9130-3F9B42B1B61D.png

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ECM is outstanding again this morning, keeping the heat well into the weekend. Yes please! Looks like the end of the week for big heat now?

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Looks like quite a notable NE wind through the middle of the week as thunderstorm activity dies out, it will still be warm in the sunshine (especially in the south and west). Friday onwards sees the heat pushing across the UK, so possibly a very hot weekend.

Another encouraging run for week 2 with the Azores high building through the UK after this spell ends with very hot conditions not far away to our south.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well the GEFS have definitely downgraded the extreme heat shown over the last few days . But the ECM/ UKMO still going for it . Funny how gfs was on its own with the heat and spotted it first and now it’s dropped the major heat and ECM / UKMO are now showing major heat . 

8AAAB886-6D9B-42B8-9130-3F9B42B1B61D.png

They're all siding with extreme heat. ECM, GEM, ICON, CPTEC.

It's only the GFS that appears to be backtracking, albeit still being very warm. That's the quandary, what do you trust. I must say that ECM tends to be more reliable for me. I will say however that the GFS isn't exactly downgrading too much, rather simply delaying it and bringing the peak of the heat at the weekend. Still 35c possible even on GFS weekend. 

ECM and the rest much better for longevity and overall warmth/heat however. 

Edited by matty007

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The ecm continuing with a similar evolution as last evening. Our upper trough phasing with one in the Atlantic as the ridge in that area is eroded.Simultaneously the European subtropical ridges strongly north west over the UK/. This portends a couple of dry and warm days

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1636800.thumb.png.5e27459069d5b27672d77694944e1543.pngth.thumb.png.87e03f59f3fc03f80665ebc2ce7d7813.png917473776_ths.thumb.png.402effe121ee02df9bdba9fde218956b.png

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1723200.thumb.png.39eeec075e8c3436b6fd5d756edd7780.pngfr.thumb.png.d0d6dc211f3a72e2e8e7c0a81322b808.png1328090566_frs.thumb.png.6563db2f4719b7cd651f16f2a0042880.png

 

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14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well the GEFS have definitely downgraded the extreme heat shown over the last few days . But the ECM/ UKMO still going for it . Funny how gfs was on its own with the heat and spotted it first and now it’s dropped the major heat and ECM / UKMO are now showing major heat . 

8AAAB886-6D9B-42B8-9130-3F9B42B1B61D.png

 Does this in winter all the time, or at least it used to before the upgrade. 

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Completely academic for now, but ECM has upped it temperatures on the 00Z - allowing for sensible adjustments to raw data, we would expect 34-35C next Saturday based upon what it is showing. 

UKMO looks hotter still to me. 

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13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

@ knocker 'a couple of dry warm days'. Most models show some extreme heat hitting our shores. 

Well I don't know about most models, I just posted the ecm for Th/Fr. You are quite entitled to disagree with that.

The gfs max for same days

1000986147_thurmax.thumb.png.903776798874d8c3557dad4a83774259.png1106028586_frmax.thumb.png.c4011e839d2be93fd600c38f77ed4762.png

The expression 'extreme heat' is of course subjective and I must reiterate, just my opinion of course, there is no point in getting hung up on exact temps that far down the road in an evolving pattern

And I think for now I'll give the models a rest as this is getting repetitive and a tad boring

Edited by knocker

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23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Indeed ECM & UKMO both allowing the main ridge to topple slightly SE at which point the plume can fully engage the UK

ECM ~23c this morning

CA3FF931-0A3B-462B-ABEB-2BC9655ED7CB.thumb.png.03fe4e6c7b163a762d6cc3c818546f9f.png

Incredible stuff from EC !!

And even better the Azores high has taken his weetabix  this morning   bye bye Atlantic .. 😄

 

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Either the gfs is going to backtrack on next couple of runs and follow the ecm ukm or the ecm and ukm will follow gfs. Interesting hope this heat does not get watered down, I will be happy with temperatures over 32 degrees

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image.thumb.png.f60d58651d7d45e1090d944e4ba44067.png

That is a plume, that looks to the naked eye that could  go bang.

 

Must be a chance of Saharan dust falls next week.

Edited by Weather-history

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Gee willikers, those last three pages were a torturous read: upgrade, downgrade; more eastward/southward/northward/westward shifts than are good for the heart...💉

So, what do the GEFS 00Z ensembles say?

t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

Once the upcoming heatwave departs, oodles of usable weather...?:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone

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The surface details at that range will likely keep changing, but the 00Z ICON, in particular, shows an impressive plume for late next week:

377CF948-F3D4-4373-A50D-51E08DCA6E9B.thumb.png.58a75c9eb2b0a475036dbbdea8a6276e.pngD7CF13C8-B2DD-4BD8-9C37-6B5EB2C79F3C.thumb.png.4886a271b9656082db7af4d267947c70.png62C5063C-8318-4E5B-A7CE-757C9D7AFF2B.thumb.png.8c60fd5d12c1b6cc8496017356bbd0d7.png

On the first chart above, it just about has a small area of 25*C 850 hPa temperatures clipping a few parts of Southern/South-Western England for Friday afternoon next week.

Exactly where and the way the Southern/South-Western UK Low Pressure and the ridging to our North-West (and possibly to our North-East) is positioned affecting where the warmest upper air heads to. But still looking for now to be a very warm, and quite likely, hot at times next week. Maybe a little breezier towards some Eastern coasts when the flow at the surface is more Easterly/North-Easterly at times. And with the chance of some troughs and shallow, slack, Lows getting into the mix, especially (but not necessarily exclusively) for the South and South-West, some opportunities for some strong slow-moving thunderstorms and showers to get into the mix!

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding the words ‘for Friday afternoon next week’

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Four ECMWF NH profiles that show the 'expected' evolution:

T24  npsh500.024.png  T96 npsh500.096.png

T192 npsh500.192.png T240 npsh500.240.png

Looks good, to me...?:oldgood:

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And its a boom with the EC mean...

Looking good for an extended warm spell all of a sudden..

 

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