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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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33 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

18z smoothes out the plume like spreading a thin layer of butter on toast. Less solid but spread out further. Basically 23-26C most days with scattered elevated storms until next sunday.

 

 

That'll do nicely 

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Still looks good for 30+ on multiple days, with a 34-35 thrown in somewhere. Amazing that 90F is so easily achieved these days. It’s pretty much the norm for it to be achieved at some point in the year.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Unfortunately we certainly appear to on a backtrack, ensembles grouping drop off rapidly the further west you go. This morning for Bournemouth the 850 mean peaked at over 20c and above 15c for 5days straight and had cross model agreement. It’s a lumpy mean now that’s above 15c for only a day and any real warmth really is contained in the south. Really hoping this trend doesn’t continue into the morning .

Even going as Far East as Amsterdam the ensembles suddenly become tightly packed with almost unanimous agreement through to the 1st July. 

Edited by Alderc
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7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Unfortunately we certainly appear to on a backtrack, ensembles grouping drop off rapidly the further west you go. This morning for Bournemouth the 850 mean peaked at over 20c and above 15c for 5days straight and had cross model agreement. It’s a lumpy mean now that’s above 15c for only a day. Really hoping this doesn’t continue into the morning.  

Yup a dramatic change in the ensembles with the low to the west quite a lot deeper and more influential in many ensemble members. 

Quite a backtrack, this could be over by Thursday/Friday for many if the GFS ensembles have picked up on something. 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Unfortunately we certainly appear to on a backtrack, ensembles grouping drop off rapidly the further west you go. This morning for Bournemouth the 850 mean peaked at over 20c and above 15c for 5days straight and had cross model agreement. It’s a lumpy mean now that’s above 15c for only a day and any real warmth really is contained in the south. Really hoping this trend doesn’t continue into the morning .

But anyone who expected those extreme charts to verify was deluding themselves. These things always moderate nearer the time. Same as in winter.

A 20C mean in the U.K. just isn’t going to happen.

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8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

But anyone who expected those extreme charts to verify was deluding themselves. These things always moderate nearer the time. Same as in winter.

A 20C mean in the U.K. just isn’t going to happen.

Why, the whole point of an ensemble mean however extreme by its very nature is to smooth out outliers and to give a probable outcome. If there was a 20c mean for tomorrow are you saying it couldn’t happen? This morning we were less than 5days away from a 20c mean so hardly FI.

Edited by Alderc
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1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Why, the whole point of an ensemble mean however extreme by its very nature is to smooth out outliers and to give a probable outcome. If there was a 20c mean for tomorrow are you saying it couldn’t happen? This morning we were less than 5days away from that mean so hardly FI.

I get that but in these kind of setups 5 days is pretty much going into FI.

If a 20C mean was showing for tomorrow, then yes it’d happen. But you’ve been around long enough to know that easterlies have been modelled at T72 and disappeared.

The 18z maybe a blip anyway, let’s see what the 00z says.

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Well looking at GFS 18z I feel we've all been teased and lured down the usual path only to be whacked across the face and laughed at. Next week still looks warm and thundery but not as extreme as they were showing, 32C in the SE at most and low to mid 20s elsewhere, Really hoping its just an outlier and things start catching on again tomorrow.

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37 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Well looking at GFS 18z I feel we've all been teased and lured down the usual path only to be whacked across the face and laughed at. Next week still looks warm and thundery but not as extreme as they were showing, 32C in the SE at most and low to mid 20s elsewhere, Really hoping its just an outlier and things start catching on again tomorrow.

I reckon it's an outliner. Yes, downgrades often happen, and it's annoying. But pessimistic outliners happen a lot too, but people tend to forget them. There are very few instances where suites will all be extreme, you'll always get pessimistic runs thrown in.   

I also don't like the huge bias towards the GFS. The ECM has hardly backtracked at all and is just as, if not more, reliable at this timeframe.

 

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I think as usual, its too easily to get sucked into certain model runs and thinking that what is definately going to happen. A plume of some sorts will happen but what angle will it hit and that will determine how hot it could well get. 

Also i do like the ECM and the UKMO trends of building a stronger thick ridged high pressure cell which should limit any thundery activity. I mean i like storms but it would be nice to have some warmth and sunshine first then a thundery breakdown.

Im not bothered either if the 20c hpa hits either, as an enthusiast it would be interesting but uppers between 12 and 15c are nothing to be sniffed at.

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4 hours ago, Alderc said:

Why, the whole point of an ensemble mean however extreme by its very nature is to smooth out outliers and to give a probable outcome. If there was a 20c mean for tomorrow are you saying it couldn’t happen? This morning we were less than 5days away from a 20c mean so hardly FI.

As I've said multiple times on here, I've seen whole ensemble suites flip- even with tight grouping. They're only just a little less useless than using solely the operational. They merely measure certainty of a scenario at the point they're run, using that initialising data. 

12 hours later they could be completely out of date.

Edited by CreweCold
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What a run from the GFS 0Z this morning. A real upgrade if anything. It has seemed to push the peak of the plume back slightly to Friday or Saturday. The 20c isotherm directly over us on Friday and Saturday, and the 25c not far away at all. 
 

Thursday also looks quite a bit warmer than the last run. 

Thursday.thumb.png.0c6fb697506ef6446b38eda1e7c11851.pngh850t850eu.thumb.png.038e4b47ccedb68d0e9a61510df0f1ee.png834276812_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.c2de220c75edc114a6707023fdba5430.png
 

h850t850eu (2).png

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 Thank God for that. I was beginning to get worried there. Maybe it’s doing a March 18 beast; starting to go wrong and then correcting back again. 

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Moving on briefly from my post above with, I emphasize, the gfs.

We now appear to be entering the phase where the atlantic ridge is eventually replaced with a trough and the gfs is following on from yesterday by bringing the upper low under attack from pressure from the west on Thurs/Frid and then giving it a quick boost and popping it north again. I doubt the ecm will follow quite the same route if last evening is anything to go by.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1636800.thumb.png.c9462f36a979b39d9004419157872362.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1723200.thumb.png.c8b6ac57b57d5d03e896d24fbf59514d.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1809600.thumb.png.075c36e3991cd09693b4a9ac7f58d22c.png

Anyway the result of all this is a couple of warm and humid days with some thundery activity tracking north from France.

gfs-uk-t2m_c-1647600.thumb.png.e013c0568ae97cee1f5fb3c2b6d83467.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c-1734000.thumb.png.10b5d5e16865b198dda9e1867095e3f5.png

 

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UKMO is the clear winner this morning with output that gives broad and steady introduction of high uppers from the developing plume allowing for several days of real heat.  

Again I don’t like GFS, the frontal activity is too close resulting in delays to the heat primarily due to multiple rounds of storms/rain and extensive cloud cover. Maxes Monday/Tuesday especially disappointing and 4-7c lower generally than 24hrs ago and being a bit IMBY below above 20c now. GFS does however pull out a 35c next Saturday in the south east. 

The GFS OPs run this morning would be incredibly bad for Glasto.....

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Have just returned home after six days away in a remote location with no internet (!) to discover one of the most dramatic mood swings in this thread that I can remember.  Last Saturday there was quite a bit of depression in here but now there's the old excitement back as we look forward to a little burst of summer - at last!  The ECM this morning has this set up for Friday:

image.thumb.gif.d8afee48342605880011687e9645d170.gif

That's a direct hit for the UK as far as the warmest 850s are concerned.  The resulting highest temperatures are evenly spread over most of the U.K.:

image.thumb.png.39f62ab5c9394c5996b6e5937dc103fe.png

This is still 168hrs away so keep your fingers crossed.

 

 

Edited by Sky Full
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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

As I've said multiple times on here, I've seen whole ensemble suites flip- even with tight grouping. They're only just a little less useless than using solely the operational. They merely measure certainty of a scenario at the point they're run, using that initialising data. 

12 hours later they could be completely out of date.

Or even 6 hours later... Gfs keeps that low further west and its all up for grabs still! 

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