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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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5 minutes ago, matty007 said:

I can't remember the exact year of the June UK temperature record, but I remember it was set much earlier in the month than now and with lower uppers. 

If we can't beat the June record this coming week with these extreme uppers and near the end of the month, then I don't know when we will. 

It happened twice, the last time in 1976 in Southampton after weeks of of dry and a slight flow from the east. Southampton/Bournemouth could be similarly favoured this week for recording some of the highest temps. 

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7 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I’m talking all time temp record. Maybe that’s the difference as June record maybe...we’ll see 

That’s fair enough.

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15 minutes ago, matty007 said:

35.6c.....I think we'll have that beat next week. 

Depends on cloud amounts, rain../ surface wind flow..and sunshine, and uppers..and other things!??

Edited by Jon Snow
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This is easily one of the most exciting weather watches I've ever had. Just an amazing plume on offer. 

What's most exciting me though is the hints of potentially going into an anticyclonic pattern which would leave the doors open to some really hot and settled weather. Don't forget that this year shares a lot of traits with 1989 and 1995. Two great summers which  had their best weather later in the summer season. 

Many people were writing this summer off already (somewhat me included) based on how it was going, but this plume has rekindled optimism. With all that heat on the continent, if things fall right, we are surely in for a great summer.  

Edited by matty007
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A tricky set up to call in the days ahead, alot of unstable air is forecast and the position of low heights to the SW remains uncertain. Boundary between very warm/hot air and something nearer normal is very fine.. 

In these situations best just letting things play out.

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1 minute ago, ChezWeather said:

 

Anyway back on topic, 18z pushing more heat back West again

 image.thumb.png.df5e9160b5d1a726d1391b8d7a6c1ded.png

I wish it would push north..sod the west!?

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Back to discussing the models, please?!

Guilt tripping about people's weather pleasures is not permitted on this forum. Any other conversations that don't meet model discussion will also be removed. Let's keep it friendly and sensible.

Thanks. ?

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Just now, Jon Snow said:

I wish it would push north..sod the west!?

We want the plume to push west though because if low pressure gets too close it could cut off the hot uppers. As the 18z for wednesday evening shows, 15C isotherm being pushed east.

image.thumb.png.744e776090e9f6233dfdfd9627655efc.png

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By day 5 (117 hours vs 120 for the Euro) the GFS has pressure almost 10mb for the central UK and forms an upper level trough which would no doubt ramp up shower activity.

This likely would also dampen maxima.

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

We want the plume to push west though because if low pressure gets too close it could cut off the hot uppers. As the 18z for wednesday evening shows, 15C isotherm being pushed east.

image.thumb.png.744e776090e9f6233dfdfd9627655efc.png

As I said the position of the low is far from certain and is pivotal, any further push north and we can say bye to any exceptional uppers, any heat won't have time to build..

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The GFS continues with a different theme with that low tending to be more influential and indeed the trough reforms after being briefly cut off. Despite 850s being lower the surface temperatures for many will be higher thanks to a slack south easterly with just patchy fog along some coasts. Thunderstorms looks likely almost anywhere on any day under this set up, which again differs to the UKMO/ECM which looks quite dry under a stronger area of high pressure.

GFS/ECM day 5

gfs-0-114.png?18   ECM1-120.GIF?21-0

GFS/ECM day 6

gfs-0-138.png?18   ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

Not very much of a trend forwards with the wide envelope of solutions remaining.

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4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The GFS continues with a different theme with that low tending to be more influential and indeed the trough reforms after being briefly cut off. Despite 850s being lower the surface temperatures for many will be higher thanks to a slack south easterly with just patchy fog along some coasts. Thunderstorms looks likely almost anywhere on any day under this set up, which again differs to the UKMO/ECM which looks quite dry under a stronger area of high pressure.

GFS/ECM day 5

gfs-0-114.png?18   ECM1-120.GIF?21-0

GFS/ECM day 6

gfs-0-138.png?18   ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

Not very much of a trend forwards with the wide envelope of solutions remaining.

I'll take the thundery option all day, every day. Hoping to see the ECM shift its stance a bit in the morning.

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As is so often the case with plumes just as a plot appears to be firmed up on the models go into chaos as the event gets closer. Again the 18z is very messy, the push of the highest uppers don’t make it in and the plume axis runs through the middle of the country with significantly increased cloud and precip signals significantly suppressing in central and western areas at times. 30c restricted to London and the south. Hopefully again an outlier as to be honest as much as im in a storm drought I’d take the heat and sun first as seen enough rain recently...

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Well an excellent GFS op with lots of warm weather to enjoy, a small blip over the weekend and then a renewed push of heights from the azores high bringing another period of calm settled weather..

MUCH better than what we have seen so far..

image.thumb.png.7c554e1110806cf4e6a3f0681081320f.png

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9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

As is so often the case with plumes just as a plot appears to be firmed up on the models go into chaos as the event gets closer. Again the 18z is very messy, the push of the highest uppers don’t make it in and the plume axis runs through the middle of the country with significantly increased cloud and precip signals significantly suppressing in central and western areas at times. 30c restricted to London and the south. Hopefully again an outlier as to be honest as much as im in a storm drought I’d take the heat and sun first as seen enough rain recently...

Wednesday and Thursday are the peak

120-582UK.GIF?22-18   144-582UK.GIF?22-18

90F in the south east but the warmth actually makes it across the country at the surface, which oddly is something that the UKMO/ECM solution struggles to do until the very end of the week with that cooler NE wind for a time.  

It is a sort of pick your route really, the GFS looks less good, but actually delivers a very warm and thundery week with the heat pushing further north as time progresses before a more pronounce bang. The Euros looks nicer but if you end up with a chilly flow at lower levels then we might not benefit from the incredible warmth at the higher levels, not to mention the far stronger cap on convection.

Worth noting the uncertainty over the Arctic as well, the GFS manages to roll snake eyes over our side of the pole by dropping the coldest airmass over the pole right on top of the ridge which is a major factor in its swift decline. 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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18z smoothes out the plume like spreading a thin layer of butter on toast. Less solid but spread out further. Basically 23-26C most days with scattered elevated storms until next sunday.

 

 

Edited by StormChaseUK
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