Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Recommended Posts

Strange evolution there chaps... In the furnace at 168hrs then it seems to pull it right back 24 hours later.... Like I've said before... Get the heat in first and then the furnace will follow.... ?

ECM0-168 (1).gif

ECM0-192 (1).gif

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

My own summarisation of prospects for this season to date has been concluded, but before that happens, I cannot leave the quoted post remain unanswered as it requires 'outing' for its wholly unaccepta

Climate change is a term thats now very familiar with everyone on the weather forums -  Most of us are seeing significant impacts on winter patterns ( across the globe ) however this summer may see im

Potential windchill for next Wednesday 

Posted Images

T216 — temps still 24-27C, with another ridge incoming - if we did get to this stage, I think we may see a good first half of July too. 

Another incredible run. 

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

This evening's ecm evolution 120 > 168is following the thinking of the EPS of removing the Atlantic subtropical ridge by phasing our cut off low with a trough to the west and allowing the European ridge to build north west. This has the surface high cell changing position resulting in the surface wind veering from NE >SE This results in three days of very pleasant weather with temps above average, but not excessively so, except for eastern coastal regions where it is quite chilly

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1550400.thumb.png.af882f6ea9451664453f59375cdcb06b.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1636800.thumb.png.7caf78a33870409f53624612619baf37.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1723200.thumb.png.7ee34ec0c8586879a69e848731ea8aa6.png

Just fine for Sidney

index.thumb.png.2a4a51676406acbac601c6d0e2bc19da.pngsidney.thumb.jpg.8f1e4dbc406d422af28e9c20ca7bbb54.jpg

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

However you slice it, next week looks the warmest week of this sorry summer so far but even so, it could be very wet although this Ecm run looks less wet than other output today!!?

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM is grand for a continued fine spell, with temperatures finally becoming more comfortable. Maybe the best run yet? Heat and then some nice warm sunny days after without feeling like an oven.

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Carlsberg summer ECM run. This is no 3 fine days and a thunderstorm heatwave according to this run. The warmth/heat could extend on into week 2. Fingers crossed after the dire start to summer we’ve had. 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting times ahead. 

The GFS 12z has backed a slightly different scenario to the ECM.

If tonight’s GFS comes off it may actually end up warmer in some places even without the higher uppers as the air is sourced from a more southerly direction whereas modification would happen more with the ECM.

The UKMO run looks more middle ground between the two.

I still am a bit perplexed that the automated apps and national forecasts aren’t as buoyant about the really high temperatures. 

 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Alex said:

I still am a bit perplexed that the automated apps and national forecasts aren’t as buoyant about the really high temperatures. 

 

One word...CLOUD!!!?

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM says to gfs and ukmo ill see your 100 and raise you a 1,000...it brings us heat... Real heat in places... Then it finishes with a cheeky little appearance from the Azores high!!! How you like them apples folks.... ??

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

One word...CLOUD!!!?

Yes that would be right for more western districts but cloud cover in the southeast is looking less of a problem. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Alex said:

Interesting times ahead. 

The GFS 12z has backed a slightly different scenario to the ECM.

If tonight’s GFS comes off it may actually end up warmer in some places even without the higher uppers as the air is sourced from a more southerly direction whereas modification would happen more with the ECM.

The UKMO run looks more middle ground between the two.

I still am a bit perplexed that the automated apps and national forecasts aren’t as buoyant about the really high temperatures. 

 

BBC tonight also not showing anything exceptional - possibly favouring the slightly cooler air circulating around the top of the high pegging temperatures back. If that flow is cut off then we will see 32-35c for sure. All to play for and probably still too far out to be really sure how it’ll play out.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

One word...CLOUD!!!?

Apps are completely useless in these scenarios.... Weather apps are giving alot of people false information regarding temperatures and precipitation. Any experienced forecaster will tell you to take them with a huge bag of salt! If it's sunny out your window next week.... Expect serious heat.... If its cloudy... Expect humid and warm.... There is Mattwolves animated app.... ??

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Apps are completely useless in these scenarios.... Weather apps are giving alot of people false information regarding temperatures and precipitation. Any experienced forecaster will tell you to take them with a huge bag of salt! If it's sunny out your window next week.... Expect serious heat.... If its cloudy... Expect humid and warm.... There is Mattwolves animated app.... ??

My point was really that this isn't dry heat coming, it's very humid air so cloud becomes a major issue, as does any persistent rain.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Once again ECM temperature charts looking a little bizarre - possibility of 30-32C in spots on Tuesday / Wednesday / Saturday (after allowing usual increments on raw data), but the heat is reserved for SW areas on Thursday / Friday and maxing about probably 27-30C even there. Not particularly hot elsewhere on those days. Rather strange! GFS, in contrast, looks like going well into the 30s on cooler uppers. 

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jon Snow said:

My point was really that this isn't dry heat coming, it's very humid air so cloud becomes a major issue, as does any persistent rain.

Humid air doesn’t necessarily mean cloud.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Once again ECM temperature charts looking a little bizarre - possibility of 30-32C in spots on Tuesday / Wednesday / Saturday (after allowing usual increments on raw data), but the heat is reserved for SW areas on Thursday / Friday and maxing about probably 27-30C even there. Not particularly hot elsewhere on those days. Rather strange! GFS, in contrast, looks like going well into the 30s on cooler uppers. 

I'm not sure it is that strange with this surface analysis MWB

1183367053_s1.thumb.png.eb57b260b3ca2011ddb5c408bb96a31c.png1501937375_s2.thumb.png.08a2a5acf7c786c0ec63b676e96f67ea.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Humid air doesn’t necessarily mean cloud.

Very true - as an example, a friend of mine lives in grand cayman....Saturday is forecast to be 32c, sunny, with humidity between 70-80% all day. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM1-192.GIF?21-0

Still hot - @Singularity, what do you reckon, another ridge shortly to follow from the SW? 

Absolutely! Ha - sorry something else stole me away for a bit. The additional Atlantic trough interaction is very Niño-like so perhaps the MJO in the Pacific is exerting that little bit more influence than previously modelled. In line with the recent trend.

OR

It’s just a fluke run! Ensembles may help decipher the situation.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

TBH - whether it is 26 or 30 its still going to be very warm next week..

EC is an absolute stunner from my POV, it has very warm temps and extends the warm spell right through to day 10 and beyond..

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...