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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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That t144 makes things interesting. If we get that high dragged further south then that huge 25c pool is heading straight for us.

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ECM T144 first compared with UKMO and GFS at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.68fa25cdb546493570d1230fa960dfab.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.e8a7d38188acabbefcdec20f78e25b54.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4176ed830bf6e30aff4f60f3099676ed.jpg

ECM seems to have the best alignment of the cut off low/heat pump...

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ECM looking consistent and broadly similar to the UKMO this evening. A very nice run developing - lets see how far north the 20C 850s gets this time 😄 

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By +144 hours, the ECM has +20'C 850 hpa temperatures across the far south and south west. 

ECM0-144_wlz5.GIF

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ECMWF poised.. Look at yesterdays, and compare with today.... Its looking good.. 

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-120 (1).gif

ECM0-144 (1).gif

giphy.gif

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ECM 12z again showing a keen easterly at 144 hours with the highest 850s aimed at the West Country. Don’t think we’d be seeing any 35c temperatures there, perhaps topping out around 30c?

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Consistent from the ECM with a hot easterly breeze, perhaps the best of the 3? Quite anticyclonic at that point so perhaps less humidity? I think south western areas would be hottest as they are sheltered from the easterly. I can see those areas getting above 30C quite easily. My guess is somewhere would hit 34C.

image.thumb.png.becd1b20861401911e1ca73164361c77.png

Should get some really high uppers in for the plume a few days later as the high moves east and winds turn south along with increasing temperatures.

 

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I don’t like the ECM to 120hrs looks like high pressure going to park out west quickly and just as the high uppers are poised it’s going to get squeezed out by a developing northerly....

Looks better at T+144 with stronger high building in and hotting up!!👍

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looks better at T+144 with stronger high building in and hotting up!!👍

Agree with Jon, certainly looks better for heat fans

ECM1-168.GIF?21-0

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3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looks better at T+144 with stronger high building in and hotting up!!👍

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

I jumped the gun and tried to bail on my post hoping no one would see 😂

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4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looks better at T+144 with stronger high building in and hotting up!!👍

Told u so lol!!!!ecm is lining up a beast of a plume!!think 12z gfs might have been a rogue run!!

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Time to put the SW, Wales into the midlands to name a few into the furnace...... Loving this.. 

ECM0-168 (1).gif

giphy-1.gif

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Holy cow, check out T+168..furnace!!🔥🔥..as long as it's not cloudy!!!😉

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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Very interesting ECM day 7 as an Atlantic trough draws the cutoff low northwest instead of leaving  it to move E or NE. Could allow HP to east to sustain for longer?

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The ECM brings another area of low pressure into play in the Atlantic with this interaction with that low west of Portugal, this May show a route to keep that ridge over the UK out to day 10. Hot too with the heat allowed to push northwards. Cooler in the east though.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Very interesting ECM day 7 as an Atlantic trough draws the cutoff low northwest instead of leaving  it to move E or NE. Could allow HP to east to sustain for longer?

My very thinking for a couple of days. If it worked out perfectly, you can see the heatwave going on several more days. Surely very unlikely though! 

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well the models were correct that Northern blocking would become the dominant feature this year,just a shame they were 4 months out in their accuracy,they went for D J F and it’s been from April onwards 🤣.

Watch it all disappear for the winter though.

 

Shorter term could be some very warm weather for next week,bring it on.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

 Surely very unlikely though! 

About as unlikely as England winning the cricket world cup..on second thoughts, the heat has a much better chance!!!..cracking Ecm 12z so far!..unless it's cloudy😉👍🔥

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ECM T 192:

image.thumb.jpg.8ebd6e0ed01549127367d9c3bad83d39.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ab38bd826e518c70aa6c6b9198a6e7dc.jpg

8 days away now so confidence dwindles, but a suggestion that this isn't a transitory heat spike, maybe?  Would be consistent with seasonal modelling, and also some teleconnections thoughts....

Edited by Mike Poole

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ECM 192 has a more southerly flow, but the very hottest uppers start to retreat - that sort of chart could end up giving a very hot day with a slack flow.

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Really the ultimate summer EC 12z..

Very warm week extending into the weekend,possibly some thunderstorms- 

image.thumb.png.96facc3ffa1ddc20bf9134926f0225f7.png

Still warm for many saturday..

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