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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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ECM 12z again showing a keen easterly at 144 hours with the highest 850s aimed at the West Country. Don’t think we’d be seeing any 35c temperatures there, perhaps topping out around 30c?

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Consistent from the ECM with a hot easterly breeze, perhaps the best of the 3? Quite anticyclonic at that point so perhaps less humidity? I think south western areas would be hottest as they are sheltered from the easterly. I can see those areas getting above 30C quite easily. My guess is somewhere would hit 34C.

image.thumb.png.becd1b20861401911e1ca73164361c77.png

Should get some really high uppers in for the plume a few days later as the high moves east and winds turn south along with increasing temperatures.

 

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I don’t like the ECM to 120hrs looks like high pressure going to park out west quickly and just as the high uppers are poised it’s going to get squeezed out by a developing northerly....

Looks better at T+144 with stronger high building in and hotting up!!?

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looks better at T+144 with stronger high building in and hotting up!!?

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

I jumped the gun and tried to bail on my post hoping no one would see ?

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4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looks better at T+144 with stronger high building in and hotting up!!?

Told u so lol!!!!ecm is lining up a beast of a plume!!think 12z gfs might have been a rogue run!!

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Very interesting ECM day 7 as an Atlantic trough draws the cutoff low northwest instead of leaving  it to move E or NE. Could allow HP to east to sustain for longer?

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The ECM brings another area of low pressure into play in the Atlantic with this interaction with that low west of Portugal, this May show a route to keep that ridge over the UK out to day 10. Hot too with the heat allowed to push northwards. Cooler in the east though.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Very interesting ECM day 7 as an Atlantic trough draws the cutoff low northwest instead of leaving  it to move E or NE. Could allow HP to east to sustain for longer?

My very thinking for a couple of days. If it worked out perfectly, you can see the heatwave going on several more days. Surely very unlikely though! 

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well the models were correct that Northern blocking would become the dominant feature this year,just a shame they were 4 months out in their accuracy,they went for D J F and it’s been from April onwards ?.

Watch it all disappear for the winter though.

 

Shorter term could be some very warm weather for next week,bring it on.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

 Surely very unlikely though! 

About as unlikely as England winning the cricket world cup..on second thoughts, the heat has a much better chance!!!..cracking Ecm 12z so far!..unless it's cloudy???

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ECM T 192:

image.thumb.jpg.8ebd6e0ed01549127367d9c3bad83d39.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ab38bd826e518c70aa6c6b9198a6e7dc.jpg

8 days away now so confidence dwindles, but a suggestion that this isn't a transitory heat spike, maybe?  Would be consistent with seasonal modelling, and also some teleconnections thoughts....

Edited by Mike Poole
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