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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Potential windchill for next Wednesday 

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I think to my eye FV3 looks a touch off and the 850hpa profile is very odd with little pockets of extreme heat coming up but broadly not quite as mad as previous. I doubt it has too much support for that exact evolution...though I'd still suspect a 35-36c from it which lest is forget is pretty impressive for the UK.

what we lose in extreme heat from that 12z, we gain in convective potential, so not a bad trade off to be fair!

Edited by kold weather
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Anyway..the first high of June is upon us..albeit very transient!!...  Yes it's hard to believe isn't it!!?

GFSOPEU12_24_1.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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The GFS 12z Ops is generally in the ‘coolest’ bottom third of the ensembles through next week so a huge amount still to play for but a pretty big spread after midweek. 

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This is well into F1 so I'm just posting this out interest. By Thursday the upper low is filling and becoming a neutrally aligned weak trough. But by the weekend another low has formed in the base as it presumably gets a boost from the west, and then  tracks north

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1658400.thumb.png.63b592ba76b5ca59e56553aabfb8a931.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1885200.thumb.png.e32539d381c14b701d059c2e7468da38.png

Edited by knocker
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Got my first prediction right about the gfs 12z earlier on in regards to a slightly toned down plume!!now am gona make another predicition and say the ecm 12z will be an improvement on the 00z and the plume will hopefully get further north this time and a bit earlier aswell!!

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18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS 12z Ops is generally in the ‘coolest’ bottom third of the ensembles through next week so a huge amount still to play for but a pretty big spread after midweek. 

couldn't believe the temps for Tues? 19 degrees max? what's that all about, 

 

ukmaxtemp.png

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Don’t worry about temperatures too much at this range. I’ve got a forecast of 24c here with wall to wall sunshine here next Thursday with upper temps near 20c. We all know that’s completely wrong. Wait for more exact details as we go through the weekend! Models varying wildly from run to run, they probably want to go conservative until they have a better idea.

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8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

couldn't believe the temps for Tues? 19 degrees max? what's that all about, 

 

ukmaxtemp.png

Precipitation? The Fax charts suggest a front over the UK and the Met Office have warnings out.

We may be seeing storms.

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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

couldn't believe the temps for Tues? 19 degrees max? what's that all about, 

 

ukmaxtemp.png

Well rounds of convective activity pile south to north through central and western areas, there’s almost no sun simples.

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Just for Fun , let’s give the Navgem a summer outing , looking Toasty ?. having said that we have better runs at the moment , but hands up who would have taken this , this time last week ?

 

803CE11E-EB43-422C-BF43-36B6BAEC28DC.png

86ED92A3-3EB5-4D66-968C-C7668A959777.png

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10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well rounds of convective activity pile south to north through central and western areas, there’s almost no sun simples.

06Z for same time was better, I was hoping for sunshine then evening thunderstorms

ukmaxtemp.png

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

06Z for same time was better, I was hoping for sunshine then evening thunderstorms

ukmaxtemp.png

Scotland has worries on monday..could be 4 inches (100mm) of thundery rain spreading north heralding the much warmer / humid air for the rest of next week..cloud will be a big issue next week, even with the best uppers (850's) recorded, if it's cloudy it's a waste of time! 

Edited by Jon Snow
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10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Scotland has worries on monday..could be 4 inches (100mm) of thundery rain spreading north heralding the much warmer / humid air for the rest of next week..cloud will be a big issue next week, even with the best uppers (850's) recorded, if it's cloudy it's a waste of time! 

Aye cloud huge difference, this day was only around 21 degrees, full on cloud

archives-2015-7-1-12-1.png

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I'm sure we're already to go with a chart by chart analysis of the ECM, not like it's winter or anything!

Here T120, compared to UKMO at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.713a3cdf4ff984cd09097c735633d36f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ff36d08ff40d0767d4ee7b45597c70c3.jpg

Low completely cut off as per UKMO,if you recall it leaked on GFS FV3 but not on the old one.   Good start.

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46 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

couldn't believe the temps for Tues? 19 degrees max? what's that all about, 

 

ukmaxtemp.png

July 1st 2015 had some cloud cover across Western England and Midlands and yet places still got into the high in the 20s low 30s. Wouldn't worry about that chart GFS is probably undercooking as per.

Edited by 38.5*C
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Over all, I'd call the 12Z a stonker of a run -- even at the end, things are generally still on the warm side (850s of 7C+?)...A longish period of above average temps is maybe getting more likely. Who knows?

h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

 

GEFS 12Z ensembles are as follows:

t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

From Mr Spock to the Doomsayers: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRbBG_kZLYqd7BhdFlRMET:oldgrin:

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