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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

but how can we get an easterly or northeasterly surface flow off that chart? which is what would be needed to peg next weeks temps down to the low-mid 20's c as many online predictive sites are showing.

Come in m, the 500 mb chart can often bear little resemblance to what the surface wind is. Nor for that matter the 850 mb, although not as often and perhaps not so great a difference.

The EC chart k shows, the 1st one, has almost no isobars the 2nd shows a flow from just E of N. Both could well, with local effects, give a flow off the N Sea and hence lower max temp values.

Edited by johnholmes
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So to the 12s then as the interest in model output starts to ramp up as we approach this period of potentially quite extreme weather for the UK.  Up to now model output has spanned a range of possibilities recognising the uncertainty, but now this should start to narrow towards what will actually happen.  I'm aware that people will be looking for different things, heat, storms, and avoidance of both!  Some are sure to be disappointed whatever happens.  
So UKMO at T144 first, and for comparison I've picked the GFS 6z at T150.

image.thumb.jpg.5500e7a3593d05f9f7a3b84ab2010bcc.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.47a5a2015c0e717030537a4f556c1316.jpg

Low cut off definitively on UKMO 12z.

850 temperatures:

image.thumb.jpg.4d8aa82bf3ad999fc8b89ce2dab5e1e6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2dd945615f24783bec8759ae9aaf6b80.jpg

I think UKMO is better for UK heat going forward from here, even if slower at this point.

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Just now, Leo97t said:

No 20C isotherm on this run for the first run in a while but we really can't complain 

Exactly it's still going to be hot enough and for those chasing storms, it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if the low was a little close and uppers a bit less. You can have all the CAPE in the world but it is pointless if you don't have a trigger.

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UKMO and GFS at 144...the ukmo appears to have a more expansive heat pool than the gfs. And looks primed to deliver quite a plume beyond day 6! Little inter run discrepancies creeping in now... Not to worry, UKMO looks very good, and we have ECM to follow yet. 

UW144-7 (1).gif

gfs-1-144 (2).png

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13 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Maybe it's because the Icon is a German model and the Germans are wanting to nick the heat off us and claim their June temp record. 

They are just the same when it comes to nabbing Hotel Sunbeds and Beach Towels!!?

Anyway, 12z runs so far show next week becoming very warm or indeed hot and humid / unstable from the continent with a growing risk of thunderstorms breaking out following this weekend's stable high pressure and sunshine..and increasing warmth...Monday looks very wet further north with thundery rain pushing north through scotland with the increasing warmth and humidity also heading up from the south with increasing T- storm risk.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Moving to GFS, FV3 and legacy, FV3 first, same time T144, the low 'escapes', early and the pattern is shifted east similar to ICON:

image.thumb.jpg.59128fc077df15c2125bed2858304eb2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.73f87b7de0e9e87312704cd45ed514b6.jpg

Legacy, well that is similar to UKMO, with the cut off low, and heat building towards the south of the country:

image.thumb.jpg.56eae34dc0e6c3377253450c6ffa7deb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e29e19b42f7ff38a9f31d30c6fa36d28.jpg

All still within the uncertainty envelope, and therefore to be decided.

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UKMO 12z has quite a keen easterly feed coming in again by 144 hours, so you wouldn’t see 33-35c there, perhaps 30-31c instead. Still boiling hot, just not exceptional. Flow needs to be S/SSE/SE for those extra hot temps.

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The GFS 12z may hold onto the warm uppers for the south, but we lose the defined heights and instead, a mix of the upper air, so looks a pretty wet run for southerners?

Later the cut off low bullseye UK for extreme wet. 

Not a great run TBH but all subject to change.

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A weird chart for next weekend from the GFS:

image.thumb.png.e37b99445d1ac05e98a56b02e9ae5a3b.png

Still a fascinating run with some strong heat. However the little features that pop up are those that differentiate between a record heatwave and a notable one!

The UKMO keeps the intensely hot uppers on our doorstep. Over to the ECM!

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I think the trend is nailed for next week in terms of warming up significantly, the question is, just how hot will it get and how dry will it be? The UKMO looks good to deliver the dry weather bit and then the heat to follow.

Of course some people will want too see that 20c hpa to hit the UK and no doubt there is a gpod chance of that, the questions remains just what angle will the plume hit at, will it be full on or more further towards the east? So plenty of uncertainty in the details even if the overall trend looks more stright forward.

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While still warm the gfs 12z is a bit of mess to be honest. The cut off is taken so far south west it loses its influence somewhat and doesn’t advect the warmest uppers, correspondingly the high squirms up and over leaving us in a slack no mans land. Lots of messy convection adding Tmax suppression. Be interesting to see where this one sits in the ensemble pack. Still 7days ago had you offered me this output I’d have chewed my arm for it.

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The GFS indicates that maybe, just maybe, this hot weather that was only supposed to originally last the weekend, then til the end of the week, and now maybe until the start of July is possibly here to stick around for longer. Similar things happened last year, when possible cooler and unsettled periods kept being pushed back further and further but who knows. ECM seems to be allowing for this possibly too

Edited by SunnyDazee
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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

GEM still looks great for upper air temps:

anim_kfr1.gif

Only a few days ago the Gem had no interest for any sort of plume.. how things have changed!?

Edited by Jon Snow
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26 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

UKMO and GFS at 144...the ukmo appears to have a more expansive heat pool than the gfs. And looks primed to deliver quite a plume beyond day 6! Little inter run discrepancies creeping in now... Not to worry, UKMO looks very good, and we have ECM to follow yet. 

UW144-7 (1).gif

gfs-1-144 (2).png

We're going to see a bit more of this tooing and froing over the next few runs. Impossible to get exact agreement on every run when things are so extreme. 

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7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

While still warm the gfs 12z is a bit of mess to be honest. The cut off is taken so far south west it loses its influence somewhat and doesn’t advect the warmest uppers, correspondingly the high squirms up and over leaving us in a slack no mans land. Lots of messy convection adding Tmax suppression. Be interesting to see where this one sits in the ensemble pack. Still 7days ago had you offered me this output I’d have chewed my arm for it.

I think the high is also becoming more focused to our NW instead of the North / North east. These set ups are always tricky.

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