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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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i think some people are looking to hard for detail thats still in fi...

every model suite, every run within that suite, plus all (?) the anomaly charts are extremely consistent in predicting the future evolution over the next week. true there are minor differences between these data sets, but imho its best to to watch it unfold, because it is going to be a very interesting time ahead for weather enthusiasts whether we get anything extreme or not.

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GFS 6z less intense on the heat but prolongs it into the week-end, which in a way would be preferable personally. France is going to be outrageous in terms of temperatures later next week! I Imagine the storm potential later next week will be off the scale.

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2 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

I'm expecting massive downgrades now ! This always happens in Summer!

Last year wasn't bad. Calm down and watch it unfold, very high uppers are looking almost certain throughout next week. Little features will distinguish whether this will be an extraordinary spell or a hot spell. I can't see massive downgrades right now.

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I see every single frame is being analized to death now... Every run is showing the heat building, some are slowing its progress down, some are shunting it further West, some further East. There is gonna be a lot of chopping and changing during the weekend that's for sure. Its certainly not worth getting overly anxious about! But let's not start to play something down that is still a devoloping situation... Here is the latest take from the 6z...still looking good.. But I will be expecting more of a firm up come the 12s.

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Wow and I thought i was a moaner.....inter-run variance is all I see and GFS 06z could deliver 6 or 7days above 30c somewhere. Some very high temperatures shown pushing into the mid 30s with unusually high minima. I have a suspicion these sorts of temps could push into towards the Midlands and as far west as the Cotswolds given the flow later in the week. 

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11 minutes ago, sausage said:

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Your argument is simply pointless, GFS has potential for 30c at times to reached in Scotland and has multiple days where that could be reached in somewhere like Yorkshire. 

Edited by Blessed Weather
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GFS 6z has put its downgrade shoes on, today its reduced the temps for my area from 32C over three days next week to just the high 20s.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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The pattern is complicated in that we have effectively two ridges controlling our weather with that low stuck underneath. We have two competing air masses with the intense heat moving north, but we also have a modified North Atlantic airmass coming around the surface high which would be much cooler and potentially bringing a lot of cloud off the North Sea. For the heat you really need that slack south to south easterly feed to be pushing as far north as possible which obviously earlier GFS runs managed.

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To me, the GEFS 6z mean looks every bit as hot as it did yesterday for next week, hot means HOT whether it's high 20's c / low 30's c..especially with the steamy high humidity, you will sweat just as much..not sure what's so good about sweating and feeling uncomfortable anyway!?

GFSAVGEU06_84_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_108_2.png

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GFSAVGEU06_156_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_2.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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6 hours ago, reef said:

Some of the dewpoints shown on this run are extreme to say the least:

image.thumb.png.fc7491e59d7afb229234eb0247fbcaf9.png

I think you would be hard pushed to find many places in the World with dewpoints that high right now. Most of coastal India / Bangladesh are only 24-26C.

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Utterly ridiculous if it were to come to fruition.

Scary!

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If anything the GFS model actually prolongs the plume into the weekend, which it wasn’t doing a few days ago, so actually that’s an even better outcome, the south east especially holding onto the heat right up till Sunday, that’s pretty much a week of above average temps 

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If anything, the ecm and gfs 6z prolong the heat, uppers in the south between 19 and 23c. Utterly ridiculous.  35c is being suggested 2 days in a row across parts of Southern England... add 2-3c on, the all time record is seriously is danger of being broken. 

Extreme, violent storms could pop up just about anywhere. This is a summer version of the bfte. Extremely exciting for us weather geeks. Hold on tight, it's gonna be a bumpy ride ?

06_156_uk2mtmp.png

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3 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

If anything, the ecm and gfs 6z prolong the heat, uppers in the south between 19 and 23c. Utterly ridiculous.  35c is being suggested 2 days in a row across parts of Southern England... add 2-3c on, the all time record is seriously is danger of being broken. 

Extreme, violent storms could pop up just about anywhere. This is a summer version of the bfte. Extremely exciting for us weather geeks. Hold on tight, it's gonna be a bumpy ride ?

06_156_uk2mtmp.png

You're right enough, Connor: and, at that very end, the 12Z is even suggestive of a self-sustaining pattern/cycle developing...?

h850t850eu.png  image.thumb.png.fc8ebd3366bf0075eb863b468b88473b.png

 

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Quick trawl through the 6z GEFS at T180, how many have the +24C line through the UK?

image.thumb.jpg.4840a6a606be3e9785530afc4529b994.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.03d30de91950984636e82def7b3a8f4f.jpg

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6 of them do.

The point being that talk of downgrades or even upgrades is premature at the moment, what we are seeing reflected in the model output is the range of possibilities given the uncertainty at this range.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Being the greedy sod i am , my focus is now beginning to switch towards the end of the working week, 6z maintains the warmth through next weekend, thats a trend i would welcome very much.

The outlook is now fabulous for the cricket world cup which must be a huge relief for players and officials alike.

Edited by northwestsnow
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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Being the greedy sod i am , my focus is now beginning to switch towards the end of the working week, 6z maintains the warmth through next weekend, thats a trend i would welcome very much.

 

So often, well, whenever they happen, these plumes last barely 24 hours..the plume coming could last 5-7 days...who knows, possibly more..quite unusual!.. it looks like an exceptional spell of summery weather for most of the uk next week..one for the books!!.??

Edited by Jon Snow
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