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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Possibly the most interesting stat from this evenings runs has been dug up by PJB on UKWW. The ECM has an astronomical 8393j/kg of CAPE over the West Midlands next Friday but actually breaks out very little in the way of convection. Interesting times.

You can have all the CAPE in the world, but its useless without a trigger. So often see people getting excited about CAPE charts when they are not the be all and end all.

Edited by MattStoke

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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Possibly the most interesting stat from this evenings runs has been dug up by PJB on UKWW. The ECM has an astronomical 8393j/kg of CAPE over the West Midlands next Friday but actually breaks out very little in the way of convection. Interesting times.

It's been one for the books today..astonishing..fingers crossed for next week, ecm 12z was magic ..and others were too!👍🔥

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Here comes 18z!!surely it cant get any more blistering than it has already......👀

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I have a little feeling this will upgrade further and further with models turning it into something very extreme, something UK hasn't seen before and something that will get the weather experts re-writing their books..  The models must've did this with the Aug 2003 heatwave, just upgrading it run by run until it became the killer heatwave its known for..  but that was 16 years ago and climate is forever changing at fast pace. Most summers we see big heat constantly being shunted East, maybe this time round we just got lucky.
 

 

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I don't see how 18Z can upgrade it any further , unless it prolongs it.

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2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I have a little feeling this will upgrade further and further with models turning it into something very extreme, something UK hasn't seen before and something that will get the weather experts re-writing their books..  The models must've did this with the Aug 2003 heatwave, just upgrading it run by run until it became the killer heatwave its known for..  but that was 16 years ago and climate is forever changing at fast pace. Most summers we see big heat constantly being shunted East, maybe this time round we just got lucky.
 

 

Yet Paul Hudson on BBC weather just said there'll be a breakdown from Sunday night. Weird

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Looks a tiny bit further west so far to me. At the risk of jumping the gun!

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7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I have a little feeling this will upgrade further and further with models turning it into something very extreme, something UK hasn't seen before and something that will get the weather experts re-writing their books..  The models must've did this with the Aug 2003 heatwave, just upgrading it run by run until it became the killer heatwave its known for..  but that was 16 years ago and climate is forever changing at fast pace. Most summers we see big heat constantly being shunted East, maybe this time round we just got lucky.
 

 

Shhh don't curse it now while the GFS is rolling out.😁

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18z has slightly,  just slightly downgraded for sunday and monday

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1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

18z has slightly,  just slightly downgraded for sunday and monday

You.got matt stoke saying its slightly further west and then we got you saying it slightly downgraded!!!hmmm this is gona be fun😂😂!!reminds me.of the winter when we are chasing cold and snowy charts!

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Only by 1 or 2C nothing major

It will ramp up the heat later in the week as the low stalls

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6 minutes ago, thestixx said:

Yet Paul Hudson on BBC weather just said there'll be a breakdown from Sunday night. Weird

A breakdown from the dry settled ridge of high pressure this weekend. There will be plenty of unsettled weather next week with several fronts and troughs encroaching from the SW. It isn't going to be hot sunny and blue sky. It is going to be hot humid with milky skies and risk of showers and storms. All this combined explains why surface temperatures are not going to be as extreme as many of the hype induced posts on here suggest. France however will be very hot as has been showing on the models consistently for over a week now.

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So, we have slightly further west, a downgrade and a breakdown on sunday before it even starts..confused.com!!!:oldgrin:

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Posted (edited)

We have winds from the SE on the 18z at 114hrs,this is better at getting the heat in as apposed to the 12z from the east,no downgrade here.

gfs-0-114.thumb.png.5136d1b35ab5975286a8fa20fbcfb1b0.pnggfs-0-120.thumb.png.5f763dc9cb2abc91e3f3f929f4d777e0.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

So, we have slightly further west, a downgrade and a breakdown on sunday before it even starts..confused.com!!!:oldgrin:

Think bbc mean the loss of high pressure to a heat low (humid cloud oppressive)

Looks like first wave downgrades slightly sun and mon. But in doing so allows the low to become stationary stuck, this will be what throws up that surge of heat from France.

Tues to Fri could be cooking 

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Looks like this run is quicker at breaking down the high compared to the 12z. Very hot up until wednesday and perhaps a bit more thundery in the west as a small low pressure feature is apparent.

image.thumb.png.31e6dcb399a197148d8f8a361fd3bcd0.pngimage.thumb.png.a418e077ab1b22b164700b7deb729883.png 

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20 minutes ago, thestixx said:

Yet Paul Hudson on BBC weather just said there'll be a breakdown from Sunday night. Weird

Wonder what charts he was looking at?

 

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Thursday on 18z has raw temps of 34°C in London area, probably 36/37 keeping in mind it’s usually undercooked. Even Scotland sees mid-high 20s..

Uppers up to +24 in the southC27AF0DA-6729-4707-9899-4481762114DF.thumb.png.da131cae402352eaf037efeaacbb801d.png

0BCD7496-E461-438E-9FFC-E16719E328F8.thumb.png.89e4c94b19c5da76b1f658df8f581c21.png 

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Further on,we lose the SE winds on the 12z and we have a slack southerly,it's going to to feel oppressive from the 18z

gfs-0-162.thumb.png.651729d34a39c9f5e0206cc17e2c1728.pnggfs-0-156.thumb.png.ca53fc0e0883a3c185b9ca0e8149d71e.png

this is an upgrade for oppressiveness

you are going to need an industrial fan to keep you cool

download.jpg.0c646cb84e475d057bb2cbd645f44ca0.jpg 

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3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Wonder what charts he was looking at?

 

Read the posts above - all explained. Look at the 12z fax for Monday - plenty of fronts and features into the SW of the UK. Hot - yes, Settled - no

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Storm risk is more widespread due to the low being a bit further east.

ukstormrisk.png

Heat is more widespread too, approaching 30°C in Western Scotland and parts of Western England

ukmaxtemp.png

 

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Jesus i thought 12z was hot!!the 18z is a scorcher!!winds more from the south dew points higher and temps higher!!gona feel like a sauna!!!really slack flow come mid week aswell!!

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