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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)

This is the equivalent of the beast from the east in summer. Satan from the South. I feel it’ll downgrade from here. Still huge potential though 

Edited by CanadianCoops

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Well this has dragged me out of my post-winter slumber.  How about this for a mean at 168hrs...... stunning!

image.thumb.png.68698c803997c2e040e6ddabed6c834e.png

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 Well the +20 contour on the T850s is into the south even on the mean chart at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.3c6d93087e27fbfceeb10386ff2afcb5.jpg

This event needs to be taken seriously now...

That is some serious heat showing considering its a mean chart and all the way at 168 hours!!exciting times ahead!!

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The op was a bit over the top compared to the ensembles. Its gonna be horrible working in that next week . Just hope the thunderstorms kick in big time . 

17E12A8D-06BE-49BD-AAF1-94FECEA9C864.png

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Its hard to believe on the back of summer 2018 we are seeing record breaking heat been modelled in the short term a year on! Its not something we have ever seen in the models and ive never seen all main models in agreement to something as extreme for us. If we dont get 40c i think it will prove its more possible to achieve than ever before. 

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51 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

One of the wettest Junes on record could end up with the highest June temp on record. You couldn’t make it up!

Im loving the new era of climate swings and extremes. Its starting to become the norm. I think this is what we will see more often extremes fron both ends hot and cold. Also worth noting the top models have shown there hottest runs ever all in one day 

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Posted (edited)

What’s going on here!? I was expecting about 18 degrees max for here after going through the models last night! 

Looks like we could hit 25c on the West Coast of Scotland! (If the GFS 12z is on the money!)

80C760E9-A93C-4538-BEF4-F4E981D89745.thumb.png.5e278cfc23f9d76a3924732ea2aa7e66.pngD604F5A1-90F5-4AB4-8967-5A9259D54A79.thumb.png.40959c05ff3bedb3125627e455b441ec.png

A4A8C10A-F797-4944-BC67-B78E4258607B.thumb.png.784d891bf6c8ae67b318e47c52d15d1c.png12DB5F50-AB2A-4DF3-B5C2-7B4A2EAF2091.thumb.png.4af318bdb6a5bba474526a2120e920c4.png1AE82956-94EB-49BB-B774-5237A7E11BFF.thumb.png.af714c2b883f220518d2f9999f3e69ce.png

This is incredible - @Jon Snow start up the Summer conga dance all the heat lovers in this thread are ready to party! 

Bring on the heat, thunderstorms and sunshine for us all! Yeeeeeesssssssssss! 😎😀🍻🌞

For the love of god please don’t downgrade!!!! 🤞

Edited by Mr Frost

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If this is what the models are showing in June, what’re the plumes gonna look like in August!! 

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1 minute ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

If this is what the models are showing in June, what’re the plumes gonna look like in August!! 

Deadly? Not to put a damper on things and not the right thread but certainly in context but is this a good time to bring it the old climate change argument? I guess it's a wait and see how this pans out but I don't think anyone wants the sort of heat India is currently experiencing and certainly not regularly.

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Evening everyone!    A plume coming up , computer models don't do plumes very well,  so for those who are looking for the details in a weeks time will be sadly dissapointed!  . But yes the semi reliable time-frame T+96 shows some impressive thunderstorms. Pointless talking about later next week,  and talking about extremes July 1918 saw saw amazing thunderstorms etc the synoptic set up was a  bit like the forthcoming plume .in Surrey 28 mms of rain fell in eleven minutes ,extreme by anyone's standards that's over an inch in that time frame..? WOW,!!!

Rslp19180716.gif

h850t850eu-15.png

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I don’t normally post in  summer but wow next week is  looking hot and humid and some cracking storms ..

Regarding the storms, I hope they are severe. It would be a real shame to suffer this level of heat and not have any storms as compensation. Unfortuantely the GFS isn't really highlighting storms, even though CAPE is very high.

Edited by AppleUK 123

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14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening everyone!    A plume coming up , computer models don't do plumes very well,  so for those who are looking for the details in a weeks time will be sadly dissapointed!  . But yes the semi reliable time-frame T+96 shows some impressive thunderstorms. Pointless talking about later next week,  and talking about extremes July 1918 saw saw amazing thunderstorms etc the synoptic set up was a  bit like the forthcoming plume .in Surrey 28 mms of rain fell in eleven minutes ,extreme by anyone's standards that's over an inch in that time frame..? WOW,!!!

Rslp19180716.gif

h850t850eu-15.png

I think instability is as you say something that is difficult to predict at this range as a range of factors come into play. However the big difference is that this plume is much hotter then the 1918 plume.

image.thumb.png.a460addc4b3b78b564b070d82f4849b0.pngimage.thumb.png.2d091a7544bdff52aecc31aa364be5c7.png 

However what is looking likely is that we will see temperatures increasing on Sunday and heat building to at least Wednesday. It could get even hotter after that but still some small issues before then.

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18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening everyone!    A plume coming up , computer models don't do plumes very well,  so for those who are looking for the details in a weeks time will be sadly dissapointed!  . But yes the semi reliable time-frame T+96 shows some impressive thunderstorms. Pointless talking about later next week,  and talking about extremes July 1918 saw saw amazing thunderstorms etc the synoptic set up was a  bit like the forthcoming plume .in Surrey 28 mms of rain fell in eleven minutes ,extreme by anyone's standards that's over an inch in that time frame..? WOW,!!!

 

 

When we've got good cross-model agreement on some seriously hot uppers later next week I'd say it is far from pointless discussing the prospects. This isn't a one-run wonder from the GFS 18z pub special 🤪

Sure, the finer details such as cloud-cover, maximum temperatures and thunderstorm potential will be determined nearer the time, but speculating the potential on offer, especially when the likelihood of realising it is this high, is too mouthwatering to ignore 😋

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Its hard to believe on the back of summer 2018 we are seeing record breaking heat been modelled in the short term a year on! Its not something we have ever seen in the models and ive never seen all main models in agreement to something as extreme for us. If we dont get 40c i think it will prove its more possible to achieve than ever before. 

40c is definitely possible in the UK as we are in the same alignment as Germany where 40c has been breached. You would certainly need the perfect setup however and a few very warm days leading up to it.

I think this upcoming spell is too early to quite threaten 40c, if we had the same setup in late July/early August I believe it would definitely go. 

These runs are the absolute maximum possible for June, you couldn't get anymore extreme. 37-38c certainly possible. 

Edited by matty007

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Posted (edited)

One thing is for sure. If this upcoming blast lives up to it's full potential and then reloads later in July, I believe the odds would be very short on the 40c being breached. There is so much heat in Europe so that reload is quite likely. 

This may well be the year. 

Edited by matty007

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I almost don’t know what to post after this evening 12z’s! Just staggered. A couple of people have already mentioned it but I’m sure they’ll be a downgrade at some point, we’ve all been on this high now for 72hrs so I’m trying to stay level headed lol. 

But in all seriousness it would be staggering if this turned into a south east special now, have to say I’ve really enjoyed the evolution of the past 24hrs where the increased broadness of the plume appears to becoming more apparent and likely one of the reasons it could hang around a day or two longer. 

Re convective activity, looks like it could end up being a nowcast situation 3/4/5 days next week, but I wish people would stop banding around supercells, thunderstorms don’t need to be suoercellular to be severe and there really won’t be the upper level profiles to support them initially. 

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Possibly the most interesting stat from this evenings runs has been dug up by PJB on UKWW. The ECM has an astronomical 8393j/kg of CAPE over the West Midlands next Friday but actually breaks out very little in the way of convection. Interesting times.

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