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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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My own summarisation of prospects for this season to date has been concluded, but before that happens, I cannot leave the quoted post remain unanswered as it requires 'outing' for its wholly unaccepta

Climate change is a term thats now very familiar with everyone on the weather forums -  Most of us are seeing significant impacts on winter patterns ( across the globe ) however this summer may see im

Potential windchill for next Wednesday 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.2cde923d18ef8a7f1ecd83e87e1ac01a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8bb709905ac6baa4a83f81704432b621.jpg

    Broader plume, similar to Legacy GFS I posted earlier, more margin for error, looking forward to the T168!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    ECM says don't leave me out guys... I want some of the action to..... I think the 12z is actually transferring that heat a little further West, especially compared to the 0z...so has it stands at around day 6,we have all the big guns on board..... Now....... What possibly could go wrong.... ?

    Charts.... ECM

    GFS

    FV3

    UKMO

    ECM0-144.gif

    gfs-1-156.png

    gfs-1-150.png

    UW144-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    How long till there's no green left anywhere? npsh500.240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T168:

    image.thumb.jpg.3860d3bf9ccad628a5a64e5c2cc18786.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.34936368fef5f6ee59687904bc057122.jpg

    Question, could there be a pattern that would advection more heat to UK? 

    Yes, if the air was being brought up on a straight S'ly or SSE'ly

    I'm not liking the fact that we have a E-W surface flow. Yesterday was a lot better for storm potential. 

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Something you don't see very often..the 564 dam line as far as the northern tip of scotland!!!..what a scorching run this is turning into!!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T168:

    image.thumb.jpg.3860d3bf9ccad628a5a64e5c2cc18786.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.34936368fef5f6ee59687904bc057122.jpg

    Question, could there be a pattern that would advection more heat to UK?  And as a bonus, it looks like Scooby Doo!

    Scooby doo..... Only a mad dog is gonna step outside in that heat!!! Errrrrrrrrrrr. Seriously Mike the plume on ECM looks broader than before... Therefore we get a little more scope for error..... All good in the hood ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    ECM turns up the heat - ECM0-168_vmj0.GIF

    Well I guess the theory that the new GFS is struggling with upper air temps is out of the window! 

    I guess peak uppers will be between this frame and the next, so will need to check weather.us later to find out what the max is progged to be ?

    Edit: bloomin heck, heat is still coming at T192!!!! 

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Day 8 ECM is HOT- the E'ly surface flow is lost.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Yes, if the air was being brought up on a straight S'ly or SSE'ly

    I'm not liking the fact that we have a E-W surface flow. Yesterday was a lot better for storm potential. 

    Guess you'll be liking the T192, then!

    image.thumb.jpg.259bdb8847c85608bf29135ec1279d24.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.28336b468b94c41984fa4e456c5a8276.jpg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    Day 8 ECM is HOT- the E'ly surface flow is lost.

    Want last forever Crew..

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    That's gorra be the most entertainment I've seen since the great man himself.... Boy..... What a run.... 

    ECM0-168.gif

    ECM0-192.gif

    ECM0-216.gif

    tenor.0.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Absolutely bonkers these runs this afternoon,even by 216 on the ecm,the heat is still there.

    ECM0-216.thumb.gif.4bca6b0403672d1af31d5fc70807fb78.gif 

    we are going to need something better than flip flops lol

    LMEARBq.thumb.jpg.de990821e824e07e69731a3698dbe391.jpg

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well what is there to say, cross model agreement on the type of set up that could produce a 40c in the UK.

    Except we have just had a very poor June so far, typical really. A real guessing next week in terms of how temperatures could respond in these conditions, a slack flow from the south or south east would provide the hottest conditions. The ECM manages this by day 8 and the following day has a shortwave tracking north which would be a powder keg type scenario with 850s of 22c associated with this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    192_mslp850.png?cb=2 216_mslp850.png?cb=2

    Well, I daresay this is what 'taking it too far' looks like when it comes to hot weather affecting the UK.

    The flow slackens after the intensely hot and humid airmass has arrived, and then conditions stagnate.

    Either there's some very dangerous thunderstorms, or very dangerous temperatures, or both.

    I WANT BOTH?

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    spell check
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    By day 10 most of us would be frazzled and would probably welcome the less hot air..what a run.. If carlsberg did Ecm runs...??

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    Message added by Paul

    This thread = Models, models and more models
    Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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