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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Well the 12z is another remarkable run. The ensembles are rock solid on the plume carrying on into tuesday. A few runs are a little messy, but every single ensemble members sees the 20C 850hpa isotherm crossing the UK.

image.thumb.png.20c840200c522f55302faa610a539218.png

P13 is arguably the most extreme member of the lot. Wow.

image.thumb.png.d74251ec76020f9d4576a4e903fab642.png

The temperature anomaly charts show just how widespread the warmth is...

image.thumb.png.aaaf0db07d8a7aa73537e906c5714694.png

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I keep seeing 40c mentioned - for a number of reasons as others have stated, I think the UK record is safe this time around. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the June record threatened though!

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9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One comparison I haven't seen made yet is between what the models are showing for next week against the hottest day on record.  Here's the 850 temperatures from the GFS at T168, and those from 10 August 2003:

image.thumb.jpg.42bd43ab56fb3370023cec5068b9d6db.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.35cdc0843110e318d8af2df02c317049.jpg

Some key differences:

  • August 2003 was towards the end of a long settled hot spell.
  • Current situation starts from a low base re surface temperatures as it's been a cool start to summer and this is happening quite quickly.
  • The current setup surface temperatures are likely to  be reduced by thunderstorms and clouds in a way that August 2003 was not.

So I don't think we'll see the temperature record go, if what's currently modelled actually transpires.  I think the story might end up being the intensity of the thunderstorms, rather than record breaking temperatures.  Fascinating model watching!

And SSTs are 3-5c lower.

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4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 12z mean next week..SENSATIONAL in a very hot and sweaty sort of way!!!?????

Worth a BOOM?...incredible mean..been on here a long time and the 0z, 6z and now 12z mean are some of the best I've seen in the build up to a hot spell!!?

GFSAVGEU12_126_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_150_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_174_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_192_2.png

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9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Considering the general cool theme that a fair number have seen so far this Summer (maybe generally that bit more warmer towards the South-East of the U.K at times), the very warm and plumey scenarios the models are showing for next week will I feel help to make up for the coolish weather at the start of the season. 

I appreciate the very warm, hot and humid outlooks many models are illustrating for next week are not for everyone. It’s also possible it still may not turn out as extreme as some runs show and, as some have indeed pointed out, some of the possible stormy weather next week could dump a lot of soggy weather for places and lead to some swift flooding. Something to watch out for! But this outlook is certainly sending the lion of excitement roaring up in me! 

Very well put DRL.

Edited by Blessed Weather
Post above referred to removed, so this edited.
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25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One comparison I haven't seen made yet is between what the models are showing for next week against the hottest day on record.  Here's the 850 temperatures from the GFS at T168, and those from 10 August 2003:

image.thumb.jpg.42bd43ab56fb3370023cec5068b9d6db.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.35cdc0843110e318d8af2df02c317049.jpg

Some key differences:

  • August 2003 was towards the end of a long settled hot spell.
  • Current situation starts from a low base re surface temperatures as it's been a cool start to summer and this is happening quite quickly.
  • The current setup surface temperatures are likely to  be reduced by thunderstorms and clouds in a way that August 2003 was not.

So I don't think we'll see the temperature record go, if what's currently modelled actually transpires.  I think the story might end up being the intensity of the thunderstorms, rather than record breaking temperatures.  Fascinating model watching!

I tend to agree with regards to record breaking temps, a slight easterly drag is going to effect the surface temps somewhat rather than a pure SE which would be ideal. also SSTs/ground temps are more modest as mentioned.

Still, a similar blast happened in 2015 and that shot a rapid fire 36c at a nearly identical time of year.

I don't think we will get a record, despite how impressive the uppers are, but I do think we'll get a solid top 5 hottest temp ever...and the real story with the heat will be just how oppressive it will feel...probably will feel closer to 40c.

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18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

An obscene amount of runs going hot... Rest assured this is certainly not an isolated heat up... Looks amazing. 

gens-3-0-168.png

gens-8-0-180.png

gens-9-0-174.png

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gens-13-0-168.png

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Those ensembles may well be going up another level tonight. Probably the maximum possible for the UK. 

But here's probably the most convincing reason why we may not get any temperature records (not buying the thunderstorm suppressing temps idea, heights are good and flow is continental) - an easterly surface wind off the north sea (EDIT - I see @kold weather beat me to it) 

168-602UK.GIF?20-12

Could mean highest temperatures further west than usual, like West Wales, or on the south coast.

35C somewhere surely though on current charts?

Edited by Man With Beard
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Longer term the GEFS 12z mean looks more mobile / atlantic driven with heights to the south and lower heights to the nw / n meaning a predominantly north / south split with the best of any fine and warmer spells further s / se and the coolest most unsettled conditions further n / nw....of course this doesn't preclude more hot weather in early July..it's only based on this run!?

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Evening all ?

Looks like it will be a much warmer if not hot week next week possibly lasting all week if the 12Z GFS is to be believed. For the south, though, increasingly thundery and for those who like that sort of thing it could be a memorable few days.

No sign though this is anything more than a transient development and the medium to longer term continues to suggest a return to Atlantic conditions with heights to the NE and SW meaning the trough sits more or less through the British isles. 

Looking at next week's projected temperatures off the GFS 12z in all honesty nothing too remarkable - two or three days at or around 30c for London and the south east but perhaps the lack of established heat is going to hold the higher temperatures back coupled with cloud and storms.

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Despite what surface the surface temps will be next week, its going to potentially feel hotter than 2003 or any other record breaker, as the upper air temps record is smashed on a lot of models, gfs in particular. Its smashed by a huge margin on recent gfs runs. So i agree we may not see the record go due to the conditions like cooler ground etc, buf the air mass and hunidity will make it feel exceptinal. But who knows these air temps never reached the uk so could be a big surprise next week. Its exciting

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11 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all ?

Looks like it will be a much warmer if not hot week next week possibly lasting all week if the 12Z GFS is to be believed. For the south, though, increasingly thundery and for those who like that sort of thing it could be a memorable few days.

No sign though this is anything more than a transient development and the medium to longer term continues to suggest a return to Atlantic conditions with heights to the NE and SW meaning the trough sits more or less through the British isles. 

Looking at next week's projected temperatures off the GFS 12z in all honesty nothing too remarkable - two or three days at or around 30c for London and the south east but perhaps the lack of established heat is going to hold the higher temperatures back coupled with cloud and storms.

It will be much higher then 30C for London. If the GFS 12z came off I could see 36C or 37C for the most favoured spots. The GFS is underestimating 2 metre air temperatures still. This is the reason why it was pulled in March... because its cold bias was forecasting snow events that weren't occuring.

I understand why we may not break the record (a bit earlier in the year, cooler North Sea, higher soil moisture). However if we get a few days of these 20C+ uppers we really won't be far away.

Even the automated app I looked at is forecasting 34C for London on Wednesday.

Generally at this time of the year a very simple rule of thumb is to add 13C onto the uppers for surface temps as long as there isn't cloud cover (there isn't much) and breezes off the north sea aren't too strong (ESE winds will mean some areas are sheltered).

Just to put it into context a similar hot spell in June 2017 (uppers just above 20C for one day) still managed to pull of temperatures of around 34C in one or two spots... and June 2017 was very wet.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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6 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all ?

Looks like it will be a much warmer if not hot week next week possibly lasting all week if the 12Z GFS is to be believed. For the south, though, increasingly thundery and for those who like that sort of thing it could be a memorable few days.

No sign though this is anything more than a transient development and the medium to longer term continues to suggest a return to Atlantic conditions with heights to the NE and SW meaning the trough sits more or less through the British isles. 

Looking at next week's projected temperatures off the GFS 12z in all honesty nothing too remarkable - two or three days at or around 30c for London and the south east but perhaps the lack of established heat is going to hold the higher temperatures back coupled with cloud and storms.

30C seems like a massive understatement. And established heat makes little difference. The only part I agree with is cloud development.

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So guys, the gfs 12z mean ALONE reaches a record high upper air temp of 22 degrees and thats just the mean!! Some runs manage to reach 26c!! Isnt that a  big 3 or 4 degree jump from the record?!

MT8_London_ens.png

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Thunderstorms next week could well be the big headline but they`ll be further west as we`re in an easterly flow,after all the record rain we`ve had this month ground is soggy still more moisture to help develop cloud cover.

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With an easterly, can imagine us near the NE coast struggling around 15C while inland it's 25-30.
Same thing happened last June which was nothing special until the very end here.

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