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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

No I was merely pointing out the flaw in your argument. I have already posted my thoughts on the 850mb/surface temp relationship and posting them again will not serve any useful purpose. But it is quite beyond me why people are getting so steamed up about one model temp forecast many days down the road. It makes no sense to me whatsoever. I've even seen a humidly chart posted for next Thursday I think it was. You would be lucky to get that eight 8 hours down the road.

Just to reiterate my opinion and just my opinion. The trough/ridges orientation is critical and will continue to be fine tuned over the next couple of days.

It is not a 2003 scenario

Fair enough, I know there are many factors at play and I read your previous thoughts. I'm not particularly knowledgeable about the intricacies involved so perhaps I will be proven wrong with this.

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A bunch of posts have been moved over to the summer thread, please head over there to post if you want to talk about TV forecasts, weather apps / website forecasts or more generally about the upcoming heat potential etc. 

This thread is just for discussing the actual model output. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Fair enough, I know there are many factors at play and I read your previous thoughts. I'm not particularly knowledgeable about the intricacies involved so perhaps I will be proven wrong with this.

Indeed there are many factors but a light cooling refreshing sea breeze would only affect the east coastal strip..a mile or two inland it would be much warmer..if not hot..anyway, my experience of plumes is that it brings hot and humid weather..and not just to the southeast corner unless it's just a glancing blow..the 6z operational shows a full on plume covering most of the uk by next midweek or a little earlier, later next week looks hottest..hope the models continue to firm up on this and bring us our first proper taste of summer next week, hopefully just the opening salvo with more to come through july, august and september!!👍

 

Edited by Jon Snow

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I question if warm 850 temps will cap the cooler surface air from the NE allowing mist/sea crag onto the east coast and cloud to drift inland = no storms

We don't often get this setup so it's hard to figure out what will happen.  Even the BBC are now tweeting 3 possible options, sort of pick and mix "you decide" forecast.

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ukwind.png ukmaxtemp.png


Models tend to overdo the modification of the low-level air a bit, but the surface flow crossing the North Sea is the main reason for surface temps being lower than the 850s might suggest at face value.

The exact shape of the low to the S/SW will determine which areas see that as opposed to a flow off the near continent with minimal track over water, which will enable much higher surface temps to occur, provided it's not very cloudy.

The above charts show this clearly; the far-south is hottest, and then temps drop away as you look north and the sea track of the flow increases. Worth noting, though, that the 850s are also reducing a bit as you look that way, so the pattern is exaggerated a little in this example.

 

On the broader scale, falling AAM (though not by much) keeps the possibility playing across my mind of there being a bit more westerly momentum in our vicinity, leading to an outcome more like the UKMO 00z, where the focus of the heat stays further east.

Tense times.

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14 minutes ago, A.J said:

just a few thoughts regarding CAPE charts posted over the past 24 hours for next week......remember this is a measurment of convective potential energy and not a sure fire indicator of 'monster storms'.....CAPE is meaningless if other parameters aren't condusive....what is required is mass scale ascent of warm moist air, cold air spilling over aloft and a trigger (such as a trough from the west).....not had chance to peruse the charts to see if all the parameters will be in place, more a word of caution to those who see high CAPE (surface, mixed layer and most unstable) and think bang on storms :oldsmile:

a point well made , lets see how well it is heeded

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2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That would suggest supercells - with shear could we be at risk of tornadoes?

Just because there’s lots of energy available doesn’t mean supercells. Many storms are severe, even extreme without being super-cellular. If the current output materialise there could be lots of single cell pulse storms causing serious flash flooding, also plenty of elevated action too but supercells will be unlikely IMO. 

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35 minutes ago, A.J said:

just a few thoughts regarding CAPE charts posted over the past 24 hours for next week......remember this is a measurment of convective potential energy and not a sure fire indicator of 'monster storms'.....CAPE is meaningless if other parameters aren't condusive....what is required is mass scale ascent of warm moist air, cold air spilling over aloft and a trigger (such as a trough from the west).....not had chance to peruse the charts to see if all the parameters will be in place, more a word of caution to those who see high CAPE (surface, mixed layer and most unstable) and think bang on storms :oldsmile:

And with the temperature over a mile up being 25c in the south the profile of the atmosphere may really not be conducive to convection. 

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38 minutes ago, Alderc said:

And with the temperature over a mile up being 25c in the south the profile of the atmosphere may really not be conducive to convection. 

Yes, Chris, in that scenario with other parameters in play (warm moist lower level air, cold pool overspilling aloft to steepen lapse rates, trough etc etc), elevated storms (above the 850hpa boundary) would be the most likely form of convective weather...Surface convection would be limited, with a pretty strong cap (inversion) in the lower atmos

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Posted (edited)

Well there's no doubt that the models have upgraded rather than downgraded next week's heat and humidity so far today (the Gefs 6z mean is astonishing for next week) it's pretty much certain that a plume event is coming with an increasingly continental pattern next week..i.e..very warm / hot and very humid with torrential thunderstorms and hot sunny spells with sticky uncomfortable nights..get the fan ready and get ready to kick the duvet off the bed!👍😉🔥

Edited by Jon Snow

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Looking at many of the operational models for next Monday midnight (96 hours in, expect for the latest 06Z GFS and ICON where I’ve had to use the 90 hour charts), and they all generally agree on the same idea...

06Z GFS

3A46C26A-FE2C-4240-BAC9-9AA53266BEC3.thumb.png.af938ea749bd30c585ca3b9a77ba7be1.png3BC7C9E2-6313-454E-BFA4-AD1B04AA551E.thumb.png.c0f6ef0fe330d5a73d3a47f79e194277.png

00Z ECMWF:

DCD3A315-A30D-479C-8F51-FECDB2A31804.thumb.png.44d1c1dab4014d76f7fbb24d39a63506.pngEFB7BA03-DEAD-4ABB-A3C0-622D87D9F536.thumb.png.998b19bba21f651e0da5ed0f3a1e53b1.png

00Z UKMO:

59D16ABA-9FBE-4D72-8B07-BF771BBC1ABF.thumb.png.ed17e5ba7b4690680ff0b0fdb68e0e78.png25F8666E-4247-4BCE-96D4-53CC2CD18A35.thumb.gif.444040445928ab1e23bc6cff2acc8748.gif

00Z GEM:

606D6CFC-E705-4A66-A205-694E9D53583D.thumb.png.3e459ba63970483a5fa64bb1eca00b4b.pngC3367ABF-6C53-4216-A693-831F5799BA67.thumb.png.7b19468376f2e76fff032f9e866c4f54.png

06Z ICON:

450EF972-CE8F-4BE6-A6A5-1568CF1EEBA7.thumb.png.058e45a27852c26ea6a81624934f3399.png01997BF4-0EC7-4D4D-8233-456CE204C831.thumb.png.66f862943e3ae5c7a3f9535d9bcc3edf.png

And yep, even the NAVGEM 😏:

1AFE4BC0-24C7-44B9-BB75-3624C805CDD0.thumb.png.c0d1ee0e87eafe75b68e00f901582fc8.png1143F064-0689-474F-96C4-7965D1C25884.thumb.png.a7427c74297f0b9781d89b326852ce8d.png

All these runs essentially showing a plumey sort of scenario over us - a sausage High Pressure system getting dragged over Northern UK, with an upper and surface Low Pressure system getting cut-off and caught underneath to the South-West of the UK. This bringing up some very warm, humid, air over Northwards, especially over South and Eastern UK. 

Being 4 days away, there’s still an isolated chance for a differing outcome to occur (for example, the upper Low to the South-West of the U.K could still break through further North-East and beat up the modest upper ridging over Northern UK). But I think the broad pattern for early next week, particularly, looks pretty much nailed!

While it’s uncertain how long the very warm, possibly hot, conditions for next week, and how widespread the very warm/hot conditions may be, I think there are certainly real possibilities for some strong thunderstorms and thundery showers to break about in places. Any triggers, such as Low Pressure to the South or South-West of the UK trying to pushing up towards us with attempts of mixing in some less warm upper air around them could help destabilise the plumey-like conditions at times to set off some thundery monsters! ⚡👾

For those of you who like very warm or hot conditions, including any storms fans, next week (for the moment), is mostly looking like a yummy, tasty, candy bar for you! Especially so, the further South and East you are in the U.K, as they’re likely to be the areas benefitting the most from the plumey conditions, but perhaps a chance those further North-West could benefit too. 🍭🍬

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1 hour ago, Alderc said:

And with the temperature over a mile up being 25c in the south the profile of the atmosphere may really not be conducive to convection. 

Yes a can of petrol doesn't do anything without a lit match.  Certainly surface based convection is off the table

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Just had to re-check the GFS 00z from this morning,and yes,it does have the +26c isotherm making it into the South.😲

 

174-7UK.thumb.GIF.e3b2497a10737bf6e5826a6025f62950.GIF

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9 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes a can of petrol doesn't do anything without a lit match.  Certainly surface based convection is off the table

Surely though there might be troughs/shortwaves in the flow which could provide the lift to erode and break the cap? A bit like snow in winter.

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Here is the icon 12s take on it, it's very warm in most places, but the core of the heat remaining that bit further East. 

icon-1-120 (2).png

icon-1-144 (1).png

icon-1-150.png

icon-1-162.png

icon-1-168 (1).png

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Looking at the 6z operational ...for the last time!!!..there's a risk of thunderstorms next week, for most of next week!!!!!!🔥🌩️

ukstormrisk.png

ukstormrisk (1).png

ukstormrisk (2).png

ukstormrisk (3).png

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, A.J said:

Yes, Chris, in that scenario with other parameters in play (warm moist lower level air, cold pool overspilling aloft to steepen lapse rates, trough etc etc), elevated storms (above the 850hpa boundary) would be the most likely form of convective weather...Surface convection would be limited, with a pretty strong cap (inversion) in the lower atmos

Agreed, looking at the 850-500hpa Lapse Rates, these looking extremely steep especially towards the middle of the week. So I would expected prolific lightning from any elevated convection.

Thursday.thumb.png.e80f0a11244e3e8436c51ecd33772a80.png

 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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More of the same from the GFS 12z so far. The high to the North is a bit stronger which may mean its less humid but still looking like a hot run!

GFSOPEU06_126_2.png GFSOPEU12_120_2.png

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12z looking primed to bake us.... So far so good.. 

gfs-1-102.png

gfs-1-126.png

gfs-1-132.png

KBBA6Q.gif

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UKMO gets 20’C+ uppers into the South East next Wednesday.

UW144-7_mxo9.GIF

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T120 and the heat is on...El Scorchio! Muchos hottus! Or, to use the technical term: A stonker!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png h500slp.png

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