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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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I think the temps are probably about right. Those higher uppers will produce elevated heat storms, usually around the bath/somerset area/brecon beacons

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1 minute ago, NApplewhite said:

Sorry to bring eveimage.thumb.png.380a50e1c1362057c385ff9aafbe27c8.pngryone back down to earth but GFS 06z is terrible by the end of the period 

That is 372 hours away though.... 

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Totally agree!!with the synoptics on show i dont care if there an easterly at th surface with 850 temps such as those shown there is no way we gona get a max of just 24 or 25 degrees!!gota get these temperature projections on the gfs sorted out asap!!

but only in may last year a surface easterly or northeasterly undercut high 850 values, resulting in a very drab day or two instead of heat. maybe its because here in the east midlands we are prone to north sea harr.

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Posted (edited)

Looking like 42 degrees feels like Temp in London on Tuesday, 43 degrees on Wednesday and a distinctly cold 34 degrees on Thursday. !  London will be like a furnace all next week!

Edited by NApplewhite
adding text

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Posted (edited)

Peak heat looks like being on Thursday, with 850s of 20C+, but cloud amounts, thunderstorms and myriad other stuff will make 2m temps all the harder to predict; and, I don't believe that any of the main computer models have the ability to know, in advance, of any localities that'll receive unbroken sunshine...if anywhere does? 

h850t850eu.png  image.thumb.png.2b42da225be976e9830f4ce800cc3be7.png

My advice? Suck it and see!:shok:

Edited by Ed Stone

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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

but only in may last year a surface easterly or northeasterly undercut high 850 values, resulting in a very drab day or two instead of heat. maybe its because here in the east midlands we are prone to north sea harr.

Yup sorry my bad!!forgot to mention if there is haar or a lot of low cloud then 24 25 degrees is defo possible!!if not then i expect those gfs projections way off!

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Interesting to look at the US at the same time- many hot areas of the US have a much cooler airmass over them than we would have in the UK in this scenario- and very few places across the whole continent have warmer uppers- remarkable! Let's hope it comes off now.

GFSOPNA00_183_2.png

How do you get these US charts?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

but only in may last year a surface easterly or northeasterly undercut high 850 values, resulting in a very drab day or two instead of heat. maybe its because here in the east midlands we are prone to north sea harr.

Indeed but again there is little cloud cover according to the GFS so I still think there is an issue with the new GFS product:
image.thumb.png.509f89f386c2a2eb54cc6fc9a96e3ba7.png

Cloudy I could see temperatures being pegged back. However sunny with a light breeze temperatures would still rocket.

Alternatively 850s could be too high but given the synoptics and similar 850s on the ECM I don't think that is the case.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I think the temps are probably about right. Those higher uppers will produce elevated heat storms, usually around the bath/somerset area/brecon beacons

Looking at the cloud cover charts though (which I know are not  that reliable), the GFS is showing broken cloud for next Thursday afternoon. Also a very short sea track for that E/SE wind so perhaps someone can elaborate on why the temps would end up so low. 25C for us in NW England which isn't bad but nothing special.

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5 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Sorry to bring eveimage.thumb.png.380a50e1c1362057c385ff9aafbe27c8.pngryone back down to earth but GFS 06z is terrible by the end of the period 

I don’t think we need to be overly concerned with a chart at the far reaches of FI when we are possibly facing a very hot week ahead?

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Indeed but again there is little cloud cover according to the GFS so I still think there is an issue with the new GFS product:
image.thumb.png.509f89f386c2a2eb54cc6fc9a96e3ba7.png

Cloudy I could see temperatures being pegged back. However sunny with a light breeze temperatures would still rocket.

yep, cloud cover will be obviously a limiting factor , im thinking the high humidity will make the skies milky at least, if not pretty 'white' like we had here in aug 2003.

interesting times though, nice to see charts like this.. but the humidity will be a 'moaning point' for many who dont like humidity.

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I wonder if the GFS is overdoing the impact of that warm air travelling over the North Sea. The temps across the channel are much higher and as you would expect in the setup. But the UK temps seem way too low. To me I see a short sea track which will have limited impact- it's not as though it's a direct easterly with a much longer sea track.

I also think the forecast overnight temps are too low- you'd expect a very warm and muggy night on Thursday night for all in this setup, regardless of cloud cover. Temps remaining close to 20C throughout the night across England?

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Posted (edited)

Very possible the Humidity will outweigh 2m temps next week, Expect more flitting from the models over the next few days as slight adjustments will make for big differences run to run until the creases have been ironed out..

Edited by Polar Maritime

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5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, cloud cover will be obviously a limiting factor , im thinking the high humidity will make the skies milky at least, if not pretty 'white' like we had here in aug 2003.

interesting times though, nice to see charts like this.. but the humidity will be a 'moaning point' for many who dont like humidity.

Indeed, I think this could be me next week...
giphy.gif

😂😂😂

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GFS ensemble utterly supportive of a serious plume next week, the mean 850pha has now reached 20c along the south coast, however also unanimous agreement also of a rapid transition back to cooler and more unsettled conditions through Friday and Saturday.

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5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I wonder if the GFS is overdoing the impact of that warm air travelling over the North Sea. The temps across the channel are much higher and as you would expect in the setup. But the UK temps seem way too low. To me I see a short sea track which will have limited impact- it's not as though it's a direct easterly with a much longer sea track.

I also think the forecast overnight temps are too low- you'd expect a very warm and muggy night on Thursday night for all in this setup, regardless of cloud cover. Temps remaining close to 20C throughout the night across England?

Those Gfs maxima / minima are are load of codswallop on the 6z operational..talk about under cooked, they are frozen!

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12 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I wonder if the GFS is overdoing the impact of that warm air travelling over the North Sea. The temps across the channel are much higher and as you would expect in the setup. But the UK temps seem way too low. To me I see a short sea track which will have limited impact- it's not as though it's a direct easterly with a much longer sea track.

I also think the forecast overnight temps are too low- you'd expect a very warm and muggy night on Thursday night for all in this setup, regardless of cloud cover. Temps remaining close to 20C throughout the night across England?

That throws sea breeze theory and sea breeze fronts out the window then

 

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Pretty amazing how we can get a major Spanish plume in, but those in Manchester or living in a cave miss it! Hopefully it's well wide of the mark NWS, and you get in on some of the action... Crazy heat devoloping on the 6z,both the old one and the FV3.. could cause more than a few problems if everything comes together correctly... Its now a waiting game... Waiting for upgrades... Or the dreaded downgrades! If these ensembles were earthquake graphs measuring for tremors we would be seriously concerned.... Off the rictor scale in places. 25c being breached here and there, worth noting as well is the decrease in rainfall amounts as we move further ahead... All good if you ask me. 

gfs-1-150 (3).png

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-1-198.png

gfs-1-204.png

graphe3_1000_261_117___.png

85074462.gif

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Well here's the 40C potential run- 0z GFS

image.thumb.png.9424c04c627d61908e9b0313a9d4a93c.png

Raw temps suggestive of around 34-35C around London

CAPE off the scale

image.thumb.png.4cc8815806c77d16252c096749e70850.png

That would suggest supercells - with shear could we be at risk of tornadoes?

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10 minutes ago, knocker said:

That throws sea breeze theory and sea breeze fronts out the window then

 

Is that what you think is causing such low surface temp predictions then? In that case surely the midday temps should be higher and then cooling off in the afternoon as a sea breeze kicks in?

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Posted (edited)

On the face of it these are incredible charts and as I've said, the temps are massively under cooked away from london..I expect in reality if the same synoptic pattern continues to show this for next week, the maxima will be widely into the low 30's celsius and nearer mid to upper 30's c for London with minima in the mid / high teens to low 20's c!!!!!👍

06_105_ukthickness850.png

06_129_ukthickness850.png

06_129_mslp850.png

06_153_ukthickness850.png

06_153_mslp850.png

06_177_ukthickness850.png

06_177_mslp850.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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Surely surface temperatures will be affected by microscale conditions - Cloud cover, rainfall, sea breezes. None of which can be modelled with much accuracy at this range.

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Some nifty temps predicted by the GEFS ensembles:

t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

 

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

Summer's a'coming!:yahoo:

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Posted (edited)

6z another insane run. And it’s getting closer!

Edited by Paul

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Is that what you think is causing such low surface temp predictions then? In that case surely the midday temps should be higher and then cooling off in the afternoon as a sea breeze kicks in?

You make a very good point there..anyway, it's an increasingly hot humid plumey continental air mass wafting our way so those feeble looking maxima for parts of north east england and scotland are complete tosh..if it's a good plume it will feel hot for most of the uk and very sticky.

Edited by Jon Snow

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