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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If we're going to do this, I'd rather it went all in a la GFS

Ditto but it’s rare to see the 20 degree isotherm getting into the UK, never mind covering all of England and Wales.

However, we don’t need very high uppers to see hot and thundery conditions this close to the summer solstice. Weren’t uppers this time last year around 12’C and surface temperatures were pushing 30’C? Albeit under clear skies.

Edited by MattStoke

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 00z operational summer to make a brief visit next week in terms of heat / humidity especially further s / se and then back to square one with the dross which has dominated summer so far. 

216_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Ecm 00z operational summer to make a brief visit next week in terms of heat / humidity especially further s / se and then back to square one with the dross which has dominated summer so far. 

216_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

Maybe a little bit harsh? We've got a nice weekend to come first too for most, not as hot but certainly summery. Even if the ECM is right at 192hrs (probably won't happen that way), we'd have had around a week of summery weather, starting average-ish but sunny and then heating up for a few days.

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Ditto but it’s rare to see the 20 degree isotherm getting into the UK, never mind covering all of England and Wales.

However, we don’t need very high uppers to see hot and thundery conditions this close to the summer solstice. Weren’t uppers this time last year around 12’C and surface temperatures were pushing 30’C? Albeit under clear skies.

True. However looking at the ECM (not looked at precipitation charts yet), it seems a lot of the UK is stuck on the boundary of the main plume axis. This says to me heavy, convective rain. Then later on in the run we change to colder rain.

The GFS on the other hand keeps the frontal rain out west and introduces a severe storm risk to more of the UK.

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Well looking at the gfs it’s staggering in its temps. Could be some explosive thunderstorms from that set up. Ecm not as extreme. But one thing we can say is at least the rain will be warmer. 🤣

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I agree with CreweCold. I like Summer and I like warmth, but humid plumes and ridiculous high temps into the 30's when i'm working and trying to sleep can be a bit much - however, purely out of interest, I would love to see GFS come off simply for the experience. Insane heat and supercells - at least it will be short and sweet!

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15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Maybe a little bit harsh?

Just my opinion of the Ecm run, I don't like how it goes near the end..it could be wrong though as it usually is in that range.

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Surely it's not going in the direction previously indicated by the EPS? 😎

t156.thumb.png.66ba536213470decd3891ac85fd4e356.pngt180.thumb.png.a429a806f9f23140a8a7cdb37ec8c74f.pngt204.thumb.png.494d4165de834d055c835aa055c2ee9a.png

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And here're the GFS 00Z ensembles for Londonshire:

t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

So, a rapid warm-up followed by an equally rapid cool-down...Does the FI build of pressure suggest a more normal pattern -- HP to our south with a broadly WSW airflow? An upcoming N-S split?:unknw:

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16 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00z for the Capital on Thursday.

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.a5ec22d86404c7c64c0d4d027a92b43d.png

😲

Humidity Thursday week

180-103UK.thumb.gif.2e4b616f2d1826d504bc9458224776ec.gif

giphy.gif

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Op too aggressive with the trough acc to the mean at 168..

image.thumb.png.a152bd63ef9e8db225462f7b0855025b.png

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Hallelujah,praise the lord

index.thumb.png.497957f77bb02791db5c31c67cfcf6a6.png

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here're the GFS 00Z ensembles for Londonshire:

t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

So, a rapid warm-up followed by an equally rapid cool-down...Does the FI build of pressure suggest a more normal pattern -- HP to our south with a broadly WSW airflow? An upcoming N-S split?:unknw:

Indeed not...It's better than that: it's a lovely AZH ridge...With (more importantly than trying to predict details) no sign of any dominant HLB::yahoo:

 

h850t850eu.png h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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The ECM mean uppers for the middle of next week are monstrous, and there's also a big spread - I'm guessing there will be a number of GFS type members in there - will be interesting to see a little later this morning when the individual members become available on weather.us

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM mean uppers for the middle of next week are monstrous, and there's also a big spread - I'm guessing there will be a number of GFS type members in there - will be interesting to see a little later this morning when the individual members become available on weather.us

Best news is the later part of ecm op looks a bit of an outlier and heat sticks around even longer according to the mean!!just imagine if we get one of those monstrous runs this evening from ecm!!as if its not hot already😁😂👀

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM mean uppers for the middle of next week are monstrous, and there's also a big spread - I'm guessing there will be a number of GFS type members in there - will be interesting to see a little later this morning when the individual members become available on weather.us

If anything like the top quartile of ensembles occurs will be talking about this spell for a while to come. Potentially the most humid airmass to affect the UK in our lifetime with the added bonus of some terrific storms - although I’m an a little concerned that flash flooding could be a real problem in place and to the extent we’re not really used to in the UK. 

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here's the summary ECM ensembles for London - the spread for uppers well into the 20s later next week, the op at the cold end 

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&ville

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15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

here's the summary ECM ensembles for London - the spread for uppers well into the 20s later next week, the op at the cold end 

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&ville

Yikes - got to be the hottest mean for a while!! Approaching 20c with small scope to go above. Everything still on the table....by day 8 uppers could be 10c or 22c!! 😳

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed not...It's better than that: it's a lovely AZH ridge...With (more importantly than trying to predict details) no sign of any dominant HLB::yahoo:

 

h850t850eu.png h500slp.png

Stronger signs of summer..at last..loving the background signals!!👍🌞😁

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is fantastic for the s / se  if you love heat and high humidity, it's still warm even @ T+240 hours across the south.

EDM0-96.gif

EDM0-120.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

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Still not convinced about what 0z shows for next week regarding some of the uppers for mid next week, surely too early in the summer for those sort of temperatures to actually occur. Still reminds me heavily of July 1st 2015 though. Definately a 35c possible at some point next week in London.

 

image.thumb.png.0bc038fa013be7b444375963eb724a48.png

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Interesting that the temperatures are very conservative still on the BBC website- if anything they've dropped them for NW England this morning for Monday onwards! If we get anything like the chart that the GFS is showing for Thursday we will be easily making 30C in these parts too. Potential for this spell to be hot away from the SE as well.

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Interesting to look at the US at the same time- many hot areas of the US have a much cooler airmass over them than we would have in the UK in this scenario- and very few places across the whole continent have warmer uppers- remarkable! Let's hope it comes off now.

GFSOPNA00_183_2.png

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