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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Potential windchill for next Wednesday 

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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting model runs at the moment, all latching onto a plume scenario next week of various intensity. I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact details at this range, and as ever I would stay very cautious about the suggestion of extreme uppers.. a factor that will come into play is the amount of cloud that is likely to become trapped within what looks a very unstable airmass.

On a personal level these are not my favourite synoptics, give me high pressure overhead/domination rather than a muggy unstable airmass from the south..

Longer term - mid atlantic high/scandi trough scenario a strong likelihood - as low heights to the SW are forced to splinter with associated trough, and high pressure can then build strongly to its north. Orientation of the high is all wrong for an injection of continental warmth, look at the cold uppers on the eastern flank of the high and cold air advection - only one way the core of heights is going and that is west.. We remain locked in a meridional jetstream, and the UK sits on the boundary between the cold and warm side of the jet. Plume events often bring sudden switcharound from heat to chill..

I don't know what to think, DL...Sometimes it appears (to me at least) that the jet is being concertinaed by pressure from the both the expanding hot airmass over Europe and what's left of the Final Stratospheric Warming; and the seasonal weakening of the latter is what's causing the kink to shift slightly westward...? :unknw:

The above could, of course, be complete an utter codswallop!:shok:

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These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts 

Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold ?

image.jpeg

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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11 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts 

Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold ?

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That's worse case scenario Jonathan, if under cloud cover and rain, then perhaps.... But plenty of sunny spells and it's gonna be a fair chunk higher than 13c...wow...what an ECM mean... It goes from Bermuda, to baltic in  just a few days! Worth noting though there are still a fair few runs keeping it much warmer... Probably 60/40 in favour of a Warmer scenario. 

graphe_ens3.png

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1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I think at least southern / southeast england is going to sizzle for much of next week but probably more average conditions further n / nw which isn't good news for scotland..as usual!

Well that's a shock NOT

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Just looked at ECM ensemble members for T192 — not worth looking for trends tonight, there are several members between 20C and 25C uppers, and other members between 0C and minus 4C uppers. Good luck sorting that out Met Office ?

Edited by Man With Beard
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Latest ICON has evening thunderstorms sparking off as soon as Sunday across central areas, followed by a band of rain

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Though it seems to be erring more on the side of the UKMO than the GFS or ECM at day 5

image.thumb.png.b754056165f41a3ce0fe5587ce330888.png

Edited by CreweCold
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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I really think next week's weather will  indicate some more flooding across some parts of the UK. .

You could be right, very warm / hot humid unstable air mass is the perfect recipe for big torrential thunderstorms to break out and also rumble north from scorching france..so yes, there could be some flash flooding but hot sunshine too and some areas could miss the storms completely...this is assuming we get a direct hit from the plume..still uncertain.

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Outlook for next week....

hot with some sunshine,so flip flops at the ready to put on to go down to the beach and pick up an ice cream on the way,sidney looks happy

download.jpg.b1e8a4b012ea47bd189bf5ee43ae6da7.jpg447889457_download(1).thumb.jpg.5d274a16272ec8ca15b6fb8ab59eed13.jpg940641867_download(3).thumb.jpg.c7b91bd2fe05ae869fc5d2f27ee6bc2d.jpg811880915_download(2).thumb.jpg.af1a223f5aadc9c56d8335c857547d0d.jpg101330389_download(5).thumb.jpg.48fb6ddf3f46ab23a9751405a3f3561e.jpg

then a chance for some humdinger of all storms,BRING IT ON!!!!!!

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Any heat most likely will be reserved for the SE corner of the UK, elsewhere some shortlived warmth..

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1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts 

Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold ?

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The GFS apparently has had a makeover of some kind with some different programming and variables and now its spewing out all sorts of bizare numbers. its been over cooking the uppers 850s and at same time under cooking the 2m temps so pay no attention to it

Edited by 38.5*C
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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Any heat most likely will be reserved for the SE corner of the UK, elsewhere some shortlived warmth..

Yes i am aware of that damian but the models have upgraded the heat over the last few days,they was showing the low over the uk,i really hope that next week comes off in terms of heat and storms.

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Last thought from me today - a cautionary note - that trough is still not nailed on to get cut off. There's a moment on the GFS 18Z where it looked like it might squeeze through the gap towards Scandi early on, but it doesn't quite happen. 

But let's see where we are in the morning. I'll never forget that ECM 00Z ensemble suite though, sensational. 

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2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Winter is coming!?

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EDM0-240.gif

Quality...lol

and as I've always said, get the cold in first and the snow will come

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18z GFS ensembles are the most supportive of a plume early next week yet. Only a small number go without 15C+ uppers now.

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P13 brings the hot uppers over a larger area of the UK and a few others do so. Whether a small area of low pressure crosses the UK will determine whether this hot plume is just a Kent clipper or something more sustained.

image.thumb.png.f8ea13efb18f7cbf0513f0b3f4090a32.png

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well here's the 40C potential run- 0z GFS

image.thumb.png.9424c04c627d61908e9b0313a9d4a93c.png

Raw temps suggestive of around 34-35C around London

CAPE off the scale

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yep  bbc  are saying  we  can expect  some monster  thunder storms  in the mix  as  well!!!!!!

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22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well here's the 40C potential run- 0z GFS

image.thumb.png.9424c04c627d61908e9b0313a9d4a93c.png

Raw temps suggestive of around 34-35C around London

CAPE off the scale

image.thumb.png.4cc8815806c77d16252c096749e70850.png

Good grief Crewe, that’s insane.

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