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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Until the Gem is fully on-board i won't believe there's going to be a plume next week..joking!!

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Precipation charts suggest that Monday will actually be quite wet as the warm front heads north with Tues-Thurs being the days to watch.

Be interesting to know with identical synoptics, what would be the potential difference in maxima with damp ground compared to dry?

Edited by Djdazzle
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

ECM individual ensembles on weather.us, WOW, WOW, WOW, WOW, the hottest ensemble set I have EVER seen (forget 2003) and the hottest ensemble set THERE WILL EVER be I guess.

The only reason the mean upper air temps stay around 16C next week is purely TIMING issues. THE MAJORITY of runs hit 20C uppers at some point between next Tuesday and Saturday. 

And a SIGNIFICANT clustering hits 23C or more.

I THINK this one is the hottest. 24/25C uppers WIDELY!!! Check out this link!! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m20_temperature-850hpa/20190628-1800z.html

But it is FAR FROM being an outlier. 

Remember 2003 "ONLY" managed 21/22C uppers.

There's also clearly a chance of a DOUBLE WHAMMY PLUME with one peak Tuesday/Wednesday and a second peak Friday/Saturday.

Why do I keep writing in CAPITALS????

Edited by Man With Beard
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Until the Gem is fully on-board i won't believe there's going to be a plume next week..joking!!

Don't worry, the heat will be sufficient to melt this chocolate fireguard of a model!

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM individual ensembles on weather.us, WOW, WOW, WOW, WOW, the hottest ensemble set I have EVER seen (forget 2003) and the hottest ensemble set THERE WILL EVER be I guess.

The only reason the mean upper air temps stay around 16C next week is purely TIMING issues. THE MAJORITY of runs hit 20C uppers at some point between next Tuesday and Saturday. 

And a SIGNIFICANT clustering hits 23C or more.

I THINK this one is the hottest. 24/25C uppers WIDELY!!! Check out this link!! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m20_temperature-850hpa/20190628-1800z.html

But it is FAR FROM being an outlier. 

Remember 2003 "ONLY" managed 21/22C uppers.

There's also clearly a chance of a DOUBLE WHAMMY PLUME with one peak Tuesday/Wednesday and a second peak Friday/Saturday.

Why do I keep writing in CAPITALS????

That was exactly my thoughts 48 hours ago when this plume started to appear in the models!there was something different about this one this time and i had a feeling with the way things were gearing up we could get an extreme double whammy of hot plumes and both as direct hits towards the uk!!i will not be surprised to see furthet upgrades to the heat later this afternoon!

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

That's what worries me we need a westward movement of the air to heat and dry things out, SW air will just dampen the atmosphere

Winds from the east would be ideal

ukwind.thumb.png.823c9d1d0498faa2312ce25f567b7722.png

 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)

When I saw yesterday’s GFS 6z I had a suspicion it was on to something.  The way our climate is now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something ridiculous next week!  Things are changing rapidly folks!  Some will be excited, but I find it worrying.

Edited by Don
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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Don said:

When I saw yesterday’s GFS 6z I had a suspicion it was on to something.  The way our climate is now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something ridiculous next week!  Things are changing rapidly folks!

The ECM following suit , Finland had record breaking heat so it's possible. All it needs is the low in the right position. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Don said:

When I saw yesterday’s GFS 6z I had a suspicion it was on to something.  The way our climate is now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something ridiculous next week!  Things are changing rapidly folks!  Some will be excited, but I find it worrying.

Well back in 2015, a one day plume produced a temperature of nearly 37C with a two hour cloudy spell in the middle of the day. And the run up to that wasn't especially dry.

It was 34C just after 11am that day - always wonder how hot it would have been without the cloud.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

The ECM following suit , Finland had record breaking heat so it's possible. All it needs is the low in the right position. 

Exactly, yesterday the GFS 6z looked as though it had lost the plot.  Today, however it has support.  I think our climate has lost the plot!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well back in 2015, a one day plume produced a temperature of nearly 37C with a two hour cloudy spell in the middle of the day. And the run up to that wasn't especially dry.

It did indeed in what was an otherwise mediocre summer.  Under perfect conditions, I dread to think how high the temperature could go these days!

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Don said:

Exactly, yesterday the GFS 6z looked as though it had lost the plot.  Today, however it has support.  I think our climate has lost the plot!

Ready for today's 6z to throw a wobbler!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

For those who don't have time to look through all 51 ensemble members on weather.us, this chart will provide a quick summary (it's for London, but you can search your own location on the left). Scroll to the period from next Tuesday to Saturday, and you'll see the main spread (darker blue) reaches into the 20C uppers on four consecutive days.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

The spread clearly widens after Wednesday, with varying takes on whether a renewed plume will hit between Thursday and Saturday, or whether the trough to the SW will have made sufficient progress to lower temperatures back to normal.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

My next Tuesday's day-on-the-farm might be a tad Betty Swallocks!:shok:

image.thumb.png.45484594d4a0a65533379b03a7467570.pngimage.thumb.png.b86836d06f97c860be57f1625bb762f7.png 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

MASSIVE upgrade on GFS 06z. Sunday now into the mid 20s. Monday/Tues 30c possible! 

That's probably a bit conservative! But yes, an upgrade!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

In fact it looks like the GFS has the cut-off so far west another starts to form closer to home and it doesn’t really drag the mega crazy hot air. ideally we’d like to avoid that. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
Just now, Alderc said:

In fact it looks like the GFS has the cut-off so far west another starts to form closer to home and it doesn’t really drag the mega crazy hot air. ideally we’d like to avoid that. 

Part of me wants it to trend further west, because in reality these plumes often get shunted east as the time approaches.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Well well well.

As it stands, a massive coup for the GFS model as this was the 1st model to go for a plume with the others, specifically EC , not interested.

Crazy times, a dreadful June looks primed to throw up one of the most impressive plumes since, erm, not sure actually.

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cfbath Newbie

cfbath

Posted
Posted

Lots of words being thrown about that are going completely over my head.

Is a plume good or bad? (bearing in mind i'd like warm and dry weather)

Are we on a knife edge in terms of thunder and heavy rain?

To put in to simple words, i'm going to Glastonbury and will be on site Tues 25th - Mon 1st July and not knowing what weather I could be getting is breaking me!

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, cfbath said:

Lots of words being thrown about that are going completely over my head.

Is a plume good or bad? (bearing in mind i'd like warm and dry weather)

Are we on a knife edge in terms of thunder and heavy rain?

To put in to simple words, i'm going to Glastonbury and will be on site Tues 25th - Mon 1st July and not knowing what weather I could be getting is breaking me!

If you are at Glastonbury from 25th it could be very hot to start with then cooler towards weekend, but storms may trigger off

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

I see the hysteria has started , it's amazing that when the weather was less settled it was all FI now it's all showing potentially plumes and thunder and unbearable heat and humidity it's been talked about as dead certainties,  if the charts are similar or better by weekend then I might take notice but not yet

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