Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Derecho]

33 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll get my coat!

Are you sure you'll need it with all the hot air 

There is increasing confidence now that there will be a plume on Monday and it may be a bit more widespread then just an event for the SE. The swingometers also show a move towards the plume scenario on Tuesday as well. Some runs keep the hot air to our south and bring it up again later. P14 is the best example from the 12z set. A warm up looking likely but will it last more then a day or two?

 

Still out in the open but at least this summer is showing signs of life! The temperature anomaly charts show the building heat quite nicely.

  

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, Nigerian Prince said:

The ECM has been very  persistent with the northerly in F1 that's 4 or 5 runs now, of course still a long way away this does not mean it will be right, but those who are warm/hot weather fans should be hoping the evolution is dropped in the next 2 or 3 days. The evolution of low pressure to the west moving over the UK and transferring east to allow, cold north winds south.

Location Battersea, London. Gender Male.

The way the northerly follows the coastline of mainland Europe and curves around into the Atlantic framing the U.K. in a miserable teardrop is frankly hilarious. Cursed climate.

[StormChaseUK]

Looking at the ECM  I wish I had invested in antidepressant pharmaceuticals in Scotland

[Frosty.]

I would say tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean supports a plume event next week, especially the further s / e / se you are.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

It's the speed of the amplification and then the de-amplification which, I suspect, will make the detail tricky to pin down very far ahead

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The way the northerly follows the coastline of mainland Europe and curves around into the Atlantic framing the U.K. in a miserable teardrop is frankly hilarious. Cursed climate.

Azazel literally everytime I see one of your posts on various threads, your either moaning about the climate or something else... Cursed! We had a fab summer last year!! We are on the cusps of a plume event next week.... It maybe brief, it may not.... The possibility of many more to come as well.... Its not all doom young man. 

Oh and I don't mean you any disrespect with this comment mate...

Edited June 18, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Singularity]

It would be extremely unusual to have a summer season trough development as broad as ECM sets up from Siberia to the North Sea days 9-10 of the 12z... but with the vast swathes of sea ice defects developing on that side of the Arctic basin, who knows, perhaps that could facilitate such a monstrosity!

I think will take a beat-down of the MJO to set up yet another strong ridge through Greenland. It remains to be seen which way things will go with that. If it powers through instead then a weaker attempt that quickly spills east is more likely, akin to the GFS 12z.

 

While we wait for that to be resolved, we for a change have a potentially large positive temperature trend to keep track of in the mid-range. Albeit one that’s going to take a lot to advance more than halfway up the UK.

[Nigerian Prince]

16 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The way the northerly follows the coastline of mainland Europe and curves around into the Atlantic framing the U.K. in a miserable teardrop is frankly hilarious. Cursed climate.

Really! Have you ever done physical sports in South East Asia? OH, how lucky we are to have such nice a climate in the UK.

Location Battersea. London  Gender Male.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No fear folks the op lost the plot with its much cooler theme. 

Edit... Only just noticed Karl had already posted the mean.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Djdazzle]

Phew - my hat is safe for now!

Quite a spread on the ECM ensembles even by day 6 and 7.

Hoping for a pub run plume special tonight!

Edited June 18, 2019 by Djdazzle

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

No fear folks the op lost the plot with its much cooler theme. 

Edit... Only just noticed Karl had already posted the mean.

Some support for the op in there

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some support for the op in there

Yes it quite a spread crew, it was nice to see the mean pulling away a little from the op towards the end though!! Looks like quite a bit of water to pass under the bridge just yet. 

[Djdazzle]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some support for the op in there

Goes from top of the pack to bottom in 24 hours. Still much to be resolved in the coming days.

[mb018538]

The mean has an upper trough though at 192-240.....looks like we’re going to be under attack again. It’s just how bad it is, and how quickly we can shift it that matters.

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Goes from top of the pack to bottom in 24 hours. Still much to be resolved in the coming days.

Yes, but the operational will pick up nuances like that due to its higher resolution. The mean will be more smoothed out so won't be likely to show such a dramatic change within that timeframe.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, but the operational will pick up nuances like that due to its higher resolution. The mean will be more smoothed out so won't be likely to show such a dramatic change within that timeframe.

True, but that’s still some change. For me, the big spread from 144 suggests that we are nowhere near sorting out next week yet. Interesting times!

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

True, but that’s still some change. For me, the big spread from 144 suggests that we are nowhere near sorting out next week yet. Interesting times!

Oh definitely plenty of uncertainty!

[mb018538]

Here comes trouble...

Just look at the negative trend that’s developed in the last 2 days - earlier runs went towards or above neutral. Now we’re back in shredsville.

[Catacol]

Not read the forum in recent days, but the obvious observation tonight is that northern heights are not fading for long, and we have another possible cut off low appearing as we move forward into medium range with the UK in the firing line for more atlantic traffic.

 

Signs too perhaps on the GFS equatorial forecast that the predicted/current burst of westerly winds may not last long, and a hint at the return of a Nina style dominant Trades' scenario by month's end.

So the better spell of weather will arrive shortly, but frankly no obvious sign yet that summer is here to stay. That sneaky feeling that recurrent northern heights are going to continue grows. A stagnant standing wave and a pacific that has never quite woken up to the Nino signature that in theory it has sat under for a good while now is a key contributor. And while it is not a certainty, the likelihood of a dry, warm and sustained "good" summer decreases while heights to the north serve to deflect atlantic energy south of Iceland. Notice also the SST pattern currently - cold blob in the western atlantic sat south of warmer seas around Greenland. -NAO style pattern with the oceans around the UK and Western Europe also now doing their bit to push away any nudging northwards of the Azores High

Might be worth looking for a holiday outside the UK this year and before Brexit Trauma takes hold properly.... Having said that - and a phrase we use a lot for obvious reasons - still time for a change! 2 months of calendar summer left yet.…...

Edited June 18, 2019 by Catacol

[Djdazzle]

As much as I respect posters such as @Catacol, I remain optimistic for the second half of summer. February 2019 taught us all a lesson that the actual weather can go against pretty much every global indicator.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So true Djdazzle, anybody calling time on it is clearly not thinking straight. And the failed winter of 2018/2019 also showed us how many predictions can go well wide of the mark! There is plenty of life left in this season yet.... Hell, it may not even get going til mid July! Know matter how many skills one has.....the future will always remain a mystery!! There is my glass half full approach for this evening. Bottoms up to the rest of the summer.

[Mr Frost]

On 09/06/2019 at 01:43, Catacol said:

Greenland blocking showing no sign of relenting yet. I wonder if we have a residual long term impact of the stratospheric pattern through winter which kept suggesting blocking to the NW but didn't deliver until winter was gone...and now we have a semi permanent feature without a wintertime vortex to shift it. Whatever the cause - true summer heat for any length of time will be difficult to achieve for as long as pressure remains high over Greenland.

Cold sea surface anomaly off US east coast also helping maintain reasonably active atlantic trough beneath the block, while unusually cold surface temps in the Med wont be helping with the establishment of a Euro high. Pacific trade winds also seem to be forecast to hold off progress of the pacific wave for another week at least, so any shift in the standing wave pattern looks on hold for now. End of June may be the next realistic opportunity for a change in pattern -  2 more weeks of low pressure dominated UK with occasional Azores ridging and generally average to below average temperatures possible.

Keep an eye on Greenland...and if you are like me enjoy the continued lack of hayfever and excessive heat. Rain in the garden and reservoirs plus a bit of thunder in the air is no bad thing at all. 

 

@Catacol brilliant post tonight! 

Plus this one above that you posted on 9th June is worth a bump up the thread. 

Not bad at all mate! (I look forward to future posts - although hopefully it’s when a UK and Ireland wide heatwave is on the horizon! )

Have a good night all - everyone in Brighton, Eastbourne and so on...enjoy the thunderstorms! (Looking great already on the webcams/radar)

Edited June 18, 2019 by Mr Frost

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful 18z with the plume still on the menu!!

[shaky]

Ridiculous 18z in regards to the plume!!crazy with 850 temps of nearly 25 degrees approaching the south coast!! Okay upon further inspection i assume the 18z to be retarded as it shows 20 degree 850 temps with surface temps of only 23 degrees

Edited June 18, 2019 by shaky

[Derecho]

Is there something not quite right with this new GFS model? 850 hpa temps upto 23C after days of warmer uppers and some high pressure...

Yet maximum temperatures in the early 20s under....

 

Go home GFS... bring the old model back....

Edited June 18, 2019 by Quicksilver1989