Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Polar Maritime]

You want Mid-level Cape really Mushy for a better idea, Not that I'm saying it will be any better.

[Singularity]

It's raised an eyebrow for me that the 12z UKMO has a weaker low and stronger highs to its north and northeast than the 00z had.

That low's still a bit north of where FV3 keeps insisting it will go, though.

Really intriguing situation. The stronger those highs, the less likely the low is to find an exit to the northeast soon enough to negate at least some intrusion of hot air from the near continent across southern UK. Looks a more difficult ask further north though, and there is that potentially serious problem with the rainfall on the northern boundary of the hot airmass. I'd rather be going for a 'homegrown heat' setup via persistent high pressure!

[knocker]

The UKMO has a band of frontal rain crossing the country Sunday/Monday as the trough edges east

[Methuselah]

Maybe a spell of good weather at last!

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

the gfs 12 is a joke. How can France get close to 40C at the same time parts of UK are struggling to get into the mid teens. Yet 13C in Leeds and 28C in London. Impossible

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by 38.5*C

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

The UKMO has a band of frontal rain crossing the country Sunday/Monday as the trough edges east

Knocker are these charts behind a pay wall?

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

the gfs 12 is a joke. How can France get close to 40C at the same time parts of UK are struggling to get into the mid teens. Yet 13C in Leeds and 28C in London

 

We in the north are used to this, nothing unusual about it..par for the course really.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

We in the north are used to this, nothing unusual about it..par for the course really.

15C difference? On a late June afternoon just 13C while London goes full on summer 28C.  Even a 7C difference would be very poor for June afternoon.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Knocker are these charts behind a pay wall?

Afraid so.

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

the gfs 12 is a joke. How can France get close to 40C at the same time parts of UK are struggling to get into the mid teens. Yet 13C in Leeds and 28C in London. Impossible

 

I do recall a day (in the late 1960s) when what is now Milton Keynes endured many hours' persistent rain at temps of around 57F...It was 87F in Kent! 

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

15C difference? On a late June afternoon just 13C while London goes full on summer 28C.  Even a 7C difference would be very poor for June afternoon.

I’ve seen 34C in London and 16C in Cornwall on the same day. It’s not as unusual as you think.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’ve seen 34C in London and 16C in Cornwall on the same day. It’s not as unusual as you think.

Aye, 10th Aug 2003, 37 degrees Kent, here was around 18 degrees

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’ve seen 34C in London and 16C in Cornwall on the same day. It’s not as unusual as you think.

It was a similar story on 10th August 2003, while the south east was basking in 100f heat, Cornwall barely managed 20c.

[danm]

35 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

the gfs 12 is a joke. How can France get close to 40C at the same time parts of UK are struggling to get into the mid teens. Yet 13C in Leeds and 28C in London. Impossible

 

Not impossible at all. We often see the SE tapping into continental heat whilst areas just 150-200miles further north are much cooler. 

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, danm said:

Not impossible at all. We often see the SE tapping into continental heat whilst areas just 150-200miles further north are much cooler. 

I’d go as far as to say it’s a common pattern. 2018 was very much an exception in providing countrywide heat.

Anyway, back on topic! Crucial frames of the ECM coming up in terms of how it handles the trough.

[Methuselah]

Here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles -- the Op is no-longer alone. Though the heat is less extreme.

  

  

We could actually see eight consecutive 20C+ maxima...Sound the trumpets!!

[Don]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles -- the Op is no-longer alone. Though the heat is less extreme.

  

  

We could actually see eight consecutive 20C+ maxima...Sound the trumpets!!

I have a feeling the 6z picked up on a new trend......

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM UKMO and GFS at 120hrs.

And finally at 144hrs.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

ECM UKMO and GFS at 120hrs.

And the plume hits on ECM T144 (well part of it) 

[Djdazzle]

ECM not so keen to move the trough eastwards = more hot air advected northwards.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Djdazzle

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean has a really plumey feel about it next week, very humid, very warm and even hot further s / se with a risk of further thunderstorms together with plenty of sunshine..a really continental flavour away from the north / northwest.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mr Frost]

GFS 144             GFS 168

ECM 144              ECM 168

Southeast especially are looking good for some proper hot and sunny weather - get the deck chairs and beach towels ready!  (Hopefully I have not just jinxed it! )

Plus who gives a crap if it only lasts a couple of days or is just a glancing blow - Summer is arriving at last for some lucky folk in the UK and Ireland! 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Man With Beard]

ECM tonight is a good watch, and not too be taken as gospel! Hot and thundery next Tuesday, where next I wonder, that trough does not appear to have masses of forward momentum? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

And the plume hits on ECM T144 (well part of it) 

Cheers MWB,  I just added the 144hr comparisons.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

the gfs 12 is a joke. How can France get close to 40C at the same time parts of UK are struggling to get into the mid teens. Yet 13C in Leeds and 28C in London. Impossible

 

Evening , certainly very possible, has happened many times before...