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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

A few more posts gone, Just Model Discussion please in here otherwise the Summer thread is the place to head to.

Thankyou please continue.

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

is it no longer possible to view the FV3 on N-W? I've tried three times on the Charts & Data page and can only view the old GFS.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Here is one for the summer haters... Low pressure in control by Sunday, so I would say next week is looking unsettled, especially away from the..... Wait for it..... The SE. On a positive note, it won't be especially cold rain.... But it will still get you wet.

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168.png

icon-0-180.png

icon-1-144.png

icon-1-168.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Here is one for the summer haters... Low pressure in control by Sunday, so I would say next week is looking unsettled, especially away from the..... Wait for it..... The SE. On a positive note, it won't be especially cold rain.... But it will still get you wet.

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168.png

icon-0-180.png

icon-1-144.png

icon-1-168.png

On the plus side, at least the green snot has more of a yellow tinge to it!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

On the plus side, at least the green snot has more of a yellow tinge to it!

Looks like the antibiotics worked after all...

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

where has the hot dry weather gone in the NH? even over here it's  looking decidedly wet and cool right into July

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted (edited)

GFS gone off on one again?

Or the start of a trend..

image.thumb.png.9e9d78b07069ddcf400c14384b4a9e6c.png

Day 7 onwards looking warmer , and warmer .. 

image.thumb.png.af824ede2098149785382dae670913c8.png

Edited by northwestsnow
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z lining up the ‘summer bank’ it run out to T168. Forum meltdown could be imminent. 

Very rare to see such a broad area of 25c 850s making it into central Europe, would be a highly dangerous situation combined with the humidity if the GFS Ops rain can off through the middle of next week.

Edited by Alderc
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Quite a difference between icon and GFS regarding low pressure at day 6. GFS not devoloping it to the same extreme for starters..... And oh my god.... I can feel a plume coming on. Come on GFS don't let me down... Me deckchair is becoming a rust bucket. 

icon-0-168.png

gfs-0-174.png

gfs-1-174.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

This is more like it from the Gfs 12z operational !!!..this is what I want to see verifying this summer!!!

12_216_mslp850.png

12_216_mslp500.png

12_222_ukthickness850.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Again though GFS is very unsettled with frontal active and pretty cloud laden through the weekend into next week with high teen uppers only punching out low 20’s by next Wednesday. Could be a very complicated scenario, hopefully some of the frontal activity will subside and we can take advantage of the warm airmass.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

That's more like it GFS.. ignore the doom sayers.... Its off to the beach we go... 

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-222.png

54980294-portrait-of-funny-businessman-on-the-beach-man-having-fun-by-the-sea-summer-vacation-and-travel-conc.jpg

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Subtle but perhaps important differences between GFS/UKMO at 144 this evening..

While its lovely to see such a GFS run the troughing to the SW will be crucial for our plume chances, my experience with these scenarios means i will hold off getting too carried away for now.

Lovely to look at though ..

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Nae bad. Nae bad, at all!image.thumb.png.1b85c827c14900f59531539f9f048f2b.pngimage.thumb.png.70b724df3ce461e58024476c7a129c9f.png

                                                            image.thumb.png.ac79a5ab603dc1f4b2157001b0f2a793.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

The 12z is looking more and more impressive than the other previous runs now,so looking plumetastic,i hope this outlook gains more traction over the days cos i am off work next week,chuck me a good thunderstorm in too and i will be an happy bunny but i will take the dry warm/hot spell too?️?️

Oh! and it's nice to be posting again without no internet for a week and a half

Edited by Allseasons-si
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nae bad. Nae bad, at all!image.thumb.png.1b85c827c14900f59531539f9f048f2b.pngimage.thumb.png.70b724df3ce461e58024476c7a129c9f.png

                                                            image.thumb.png.ac79a5ab603dc1f4b2157001b0f2a793.png

YUK!

ukmaxtemp.pnghgt500-1000.png

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

To advect the very warm airmass into the UK the position and movement of this upper low in conjunction with the European ridge needs to be precise from around this point  Not to mention the ecm needs to be on the same page

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1291200.thumb.png.4f7f918cc2bf191e71b916799a001f78.png

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gem 12z shows how when things go wrong, the wheels come flying off, unlike the 00z which showed when things go right..etc..etc..they are poles apart..won't show the charts you will be pleased to know!

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, knocker said:

gfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-1636800.thumb.png.0b62ca4d758637d422b36ac6689609c7.png

Thanks for posting that.

I just looked at the GFS 12z so far and seen these and thought the Churchill dog was sitting beside me because all I could hear in my head was..Oooohhhhh yes! 

3302AB12-6023-446E-B888-87116E43A723.thumb.png.1c533ed17e9179cd7e2ce26482667763.png1DDB574E-A723-4147-8039-CA1385E0DE38.thumb.png.ed76798006966ac767db1c6354856df1.png

AF5CF295-9721-477D-A0EF-845BC99C239B.thumb.png.393c9c18ad35c319d66399d58bef6547.pngFBDBE97E-4B06-4C7F-8490-CC590DCA266D.thumb.png.ba91d0b5759266e3ed528caf3fb10676.png

But then I check the predicted temps and think ohhhh no! (For my location)

Oh to be living in France! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Some interesting output this evening for sure, first up decent showing from UKMO at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.1bc78353f264858ad0bfc9815dfc146b.jpg

Moving on to T240, and there is considerable uncertainty due to the cut- off low, here the 'old' GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.3c74415ca95cbe1da99d229ddd5341e0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e07171cee6c1e797500560ffc2249b51.jpg

GEM same time:

image.thumb.jpg.0b5e7f1d71b854671a3988c45a2938f7.jpg

and GFS operational (FV3) showing the plume potential:

image.thumb.jpg.a1698a4969731d561017d39489bcc163.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7c949bd209a0b01d292645423d10ba66.jpg

With an attempt to ridge to the UK from the Azores and that cut off low in the way, I think there will be some interesting runs thrown out by the models before the direction of travel can be resolved.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted

It does look as though for a couple of days at least that the Southeast of England (in particular) could be in the oven near the end of the month. (Would tie in with the Metoffice outlook which mentions very warm for that area) 

For my area near the West coast of Scotland a pathetic 15 and 16 degrees on the same days. 

CFA01008-57B8-4B1A-A01E-545F371459E1.thumb.png.4a8355ecb85b31b30f27577990f43db6.pngCA957501-8B77-4DF0-AA2B-0D258AD5C65F.thumb.png.69061eadb77bcd91315787b4f564b1b6.png

DB5309B6-082E-4C15-9523-0F374022C2EE.thumb.png.009911fec75b2b303c1aad1dd8b240ab.png36EC66E0-D910-425F-B0BA-A6A474121A57.thumb.png.137e4ceafa78e2c03352390cd43281bc.png

If I lived down there I would be banking this run! 

Longer term looks like reverting back to rubbish though for the start of July.

We shall see! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 12z there's a chance of a plume or plumette or plume lite at the end of this week / early next week!

GFSAVGEU12_168_2.png

GFSP03EU12_168_2.png

GFSP06EU12_168_2.png

GFSP08EU12_192_2.png

GFSP10EU12_168_2.png

GFSP11EU12_192_2.png

GFSP13EU12_180_2.png

GFSP16EU12_174_2.png

GFSP17EU12_168_2.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well, the 12Z ends on a better note...But will the Azores High push in like that?:unknw:

image.thumb.png.ab58786c1595b4b09a34ce58e9436b08.pngimage.thumb.png.d2e835e1b641d2850d87f6b119120cb7.png 

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