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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 12z mean does improve longer term, at least for a time, especially further south as the azores high noses / ridges in which could translate to a proper anticyclonic spell..glass half full naturally!!

GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_288_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GEF 12Z Operational is so much on the warmer end of the pack, it spends quite a lot of time as a 2m temperature outlier...but not in either T850s or SLP. Could predicted daily sunshine-totals be what're making the difference?:unknw:

image.thumb.png.c6b0890c2a5194ef732076f1adfd7f77.pngimage.thumb.png.acb420a8accc1eb1a0287660ee320229.png  

image.thumb.png.a2bb330ae1a5e0a5df12047f4d09323e.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Friday looks okay, expect it to downgrade though, settled weather seems to

ECM1-144.GIF?15-0

Cheer up, there's nothing to fret about from the north sea...  on that chart anyway!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Dear god the ecm is utterly horrendous tonight and actually starts rebuilding a big Greenland high at 240! Doesn’t match the clusters at all from this morning so I’m guessing it’s not representative at all.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Dear god the ecm is utterly horrendous tonight and actually starts rebuilding a big Greenland high at 240! Doesn’t match the clusters at all from this morning so I’m guessing it’s not representative at all.

Tonight's mean will be interesting, hope it builds on this from earlier today!!

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted (edited)

Surely all this NB is giving way to fast ice melt in the Arctic.  Awful awful poor chart from ECM, Glad the ensemble cluster suite doesnt support it otherwise things would just look so depressingly similar to the past two weeks with absolutely no sign of anything decent in terms of a good spell of summer weather. Only 6 weeks left now as I wouldn't really count on August as it has a bad reputation for being the most Autumn month of the Summer.

greeny big block.png

Edited by 38.5*C
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

ECM mean folks. 

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168 (1).gif

EDM1-192 (1).gif

EDM1-216 (1).gif

EDM1-240 (1).gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
6 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Surely all this NB is giving way to fast ice melt in the Arctic.  Awful awful p1$$ poor chart from ECM, Glad the ensemble cluster suite doesnt support it otherwise things would just look so depressingly similar to the past two weeks with absolutely no sign of anything decent in terms of a good spell of summer weather. Only 6 weeks left now as I wouldn't really count on August as it has a bad reputation for being the most Autumn month of the Summer.

greeny big block.png

My god, your making our summer shorter and shorter... August can potentially be a hot month, and tbh, we are long overdue one. 

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

My god, your making our summer shorter and shorter... August can potentially be a hot month, and tbh, we are long overdue one. 

16 years and counting

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

It’s another poor set of 12z’s. ECM this takes the prize for being utter dog there’s no warm spell midweek now which has pretty much and just when you think it’s turning the corner next weekend it rapidly starts building Greeny heights again and the begins of another trough look as though they are about to start developing down over us. To be fair it’s not just ecm all the models are poor this evening, absolutely nothing to look forward to weather wise and inconceivable I’ll probably be going into July with my 4 warmest days of the year in middle of April and warmest of them 2 or 3c higher than anything recorded in May/June utterly pathetic. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
50 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight's mean will be interesting, hope it builds on this from earlier today!!

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean ends well..hoping late June will bring a marked improvement! 

EDM1-240.gif

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

It’s another poor set of 12z’s. ECM this takes the prize for being utter dog there’s no warm spell midweek now which has pretty much and just when you think it’s turning the corner next weekend it rapidly starts building Greeny heights again and the begins of another trough look as though they are about to start developing down over us. To be fair it’s not just ecm all the models are poor this evening, absolutely nothing to look forward to weather wise and inconceivable I’ll probably be going into July with my 4 warmest days of the year in middle of April and warmest of them 2 or 3c higher than anything recorded in May/June utterly pathetic. 

The mean is not to bad,and it's not so keen to build the Greenland heights as you put it! A tad dramatic yet again. 

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My god, your making our summer shorter and shorter... August can potentially be a hot month, and tbh, we are long overdue one. 

Even Gavin partridges month ahead forecast earlier was nothing to bring home. Just a continuation Poor >> showery >> Poor >> showery right into the first week of July.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The mean is not to bad

Agreed, it's heading in the right direction..I'm looking to the azores high to kick start our summer!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

The mean is not to bad,and it's not so keen to build the Greenland heights as you put it! A tad dramatic yet again. 

 Not really dramatic, statistically accurate regarding max temps, absolutely nothing to suggest they be seriously challenged, outlook is poor. 

I’m just so staggered people are so Positive over charts that are clearly poor. It’s almost like ramping up snow over the Cairngorms in winter as a good wintry run. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, 38.5*C said:

Even Gavin partridges month ahead forecast earlier was nothing to bring home. Just a continuation Poor >> showery >> Poor >> showery right into the first week of July.

So basically he has to be correct, while other organisations are wrong! Talk about glass half empty... This is literally running on fumes.. I just can't wait for winter.... December 1st.....its over... Its over... There is just no way out of this mild spell... Come on you guys.... The model output is just nowhere near as bad has your calling it... 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

 Not really dramatic, statistically accurate regarding max temps, absolutely nothing to suggest they be seriously challenged, outlook is poor. 

I’m just so staggered people are so Positive over charts that are clearly poor. It’s almost like ramping up snow over the Cairngorms in winter as a good wintry run. 

Perhaps it's time for a break from model watching Alderc, has its clearly driving you round the bend... 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So basically he has to be correct, while other organisations are wrong! Talk about glass half empty... This is literally running on fumes.. I just can't wait for winter.... December 1st.....its over... Its over... There is just no way out of this mild spell... Come on you guys.... The model output is just nowhere near as bad has your calling it... 

certainly isn't, remember what we've just had, 11 degrees most days, here that is Dec to Feb like, next 2 weeks look like being 18 degrees, and may not rain all day, so drier and more like Spring

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

This evening's EPS medium term mean anomaly is not without interest compared to three days ago and it would mean more settled weather with temps peeking just about average if sustained.

10-15.thumb.png.5045045e350e57f723726b7ab547d8cb.png7-12.thumb.png.b202f555409b9821e370f709b51cd96f.png

But in the later frames the subtropical high loses any traction and a zonal westerly is back in place which in fact is comparable with tonight's NOAA. So changeable the day to day variations of detail dependent on the interaction of the different airmasses

9-14.thumb.png.69a885e2bd11d2265d0bab32e6e7ef50.png814day_03.thumb.gif.49d486851ecd38e9197f21371729bd7d.gif

Edited by knocker
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Blessed Weather Maestro

Blessed Weather

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
Posted

Can we stick to model output discussion and cut out the personal comments please. And there is another thread for moans about summer - see the top of the page. Thank you.

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So basically he has to be correct, while other organisations are wrong! Talk about glass half empty... This is literally running on fumes.. I just can't wait for winter.... December 1st.....its over... Its over... There is just no way out of this mild spell... Come on you guys.... The model output is just nowhere near as bad has your calling it... 

Its not really a question of whether hes correct or not, he is simply stating in his own words what the main three models output is displaying and its really not looking good. Six weeks to go then its a straw to clutch for August.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Thanks @knocker. Looks like average weather most likely to win out....no appetite in the longer term to build a strong UK ridge, temporary builds of pressure perhaps the best bet.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So basically he has to be correct, while other organisations are wrong! Talk about glass half empty... This is literally running on fumes.. I just can't wait for winter.... December 1st.....its over... Its over... There is just no way out of this mild spell... Come on you guys.... The model output is just nowhere near as bad has your calling it... 

Gavin P, as much as I admire his enthusiasm, has as patchy a record (regarding long-term predictions) as many of the rest of us do, when it comes to definitive prediction: sometimes he's right, sometimes he's wrong...He was wrong for much of last winter -- but then so were we. Being 'wrong' is a big part of what makes model-watching so addictive...Especially to us addicts!:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 

8 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Should probably caveat this is for the old GFS, FV3 may be different but I've no reason to expect it would be.  

By the way, does anyone know if the GEFS now use FV3?  There was never a parallel version for the ensembles, I'd be interested to know if these have also been 'upgraded'.

No upgrade for the gefs .......

The story seems to be that the deepish upper troughing that has plagued much of the spring will go but whilst there will be a general rise in thicknesses (and therefore temps), I don’t see any convincing evidence that the upper lows will disappear so warm rain possible I/o the cold stuff we’ve been having ......

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