Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[A.J]

A quick summary of the 06z GFS.....

'Meh........apart from a couple of warm days in London next week'.......an average of 15-19C daytime maxima in my locale throughout the run is most certainly not warm before anyone jumps in 

[Mike Poole]

41 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Mike I was always under the impression that it's the 6z and 18z that have less data input. This may explain why the 18z usually goes off on one and does its own thing. 

I believe the 6z and 18z have less data of certain types, maybe more of other types, but overall their performance is not statistically different to the 0z and 12z.  

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, duggyfresh said:

Thanks! Most of us on the Efestivals forum check on you about every 20 minutes or so.... You've got quite an audience at the moment. Fingers crossed for some good news next week then. Your expertise is very much appreciated and we're learning a lot about weather! 

My take on it at the moment is as follows.  Long range models have been suggesting, and continue to suggest, a higher likelihood of a hotter than average summer.  However, thus far that signal seems to have been overridden by a very strong final warming of the stratosphere in late April - every year the winds in the stratosphere reverse from west to east as we move into summer, but usually it's a benign transition that nobody notices!  Not this year, it seems to be responsible for high latitude blocking (high pressure) over Greenland that has hung around for some time giving the recent unseasonable weather, but the models are predicting this to wane now, giving way to more usual British summer weather.

What happens next is open to question,  but with the Greenland high pressure out the way, there is a good chance that the hints from the long range models of a hotter summer, could take hold.  The GloSea5 model, however, suggests no clear signal re rain, so if the warmer weather does come,  it may come with thundery breakdowns.  A lot of uncertainty remains at that range, of course.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

Appreciate that nws but I'm intrigued as to what you thought my intentions were/are.  I mean I'm agenda free unlike everyone else with the odd exception, (rest easy JH)

TBH it was mainly surrounding the charts promoting above average temps in winters past,perhaps, no doubt it was humour on your behalf - as a coldie though i have to confess it was a tad annoying, oh well, all water under the bridge.

Do carry on with the good work

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH it was mainly surrounding the charts promoting above average temps in winters past,perhaps, no doubt it was humour on your behalf - as a coldie though i have to confess it was a tad annoying, oh well, all water under the bridge.

Do carry on with the good work

Ah right, Still you don't have to worry my days of posting in the winter thread are long gone, never to return

[knocker]

We had some nice Cumulus down here this today but no showers and their vertical development was restricted to around 7000 feet.

 

[northwestsnow]

Both GFS/UKMO now promoting a ridge from the azores at 144-

UKMO

Hopefully improvements would be on the way soon after

[knocker]

Some thundery outbreaks late Tuesday?

Edited June 15, 2019 by knocker

[Mike Poole]

So the 12z runs, first UKMO at T144:

Looks promising for some settled weather but as always wish we could see a few more frames!  The others, here ICON, GFS and GEM at T180:

GFS the best, but highlighting the fact that at T180 there is considerable uncertainty, so we wait, and we watch...but at least the vile first half of June is on the way out

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h shows warmer, more humid continental air spreading up across the south / southeast for a time which brings an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out and being imported from france but with very warm sunny spells, progressively cooler and more changeable / unsettled further northwest and this gradually pushes southeast but day 6 shows signs of azores ridging approaching which could bring a gradual improvement from the end of next week, at least for southern uk.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z looking potentially plumescent, in its latter stages:

 

[Methuselah]

But, no: the reverse Midas effect has reared its ugly head!

 

But at least there are hints (when are there not?) of HP to our south, late on? Back to the turd polish it is, then!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, no: the reverse Midas effect has reared its ugly head!

 

But at least there are hints (when are there not?) of HP to our south, late on? Back to the turd polish it is, then!

It looks a typical north / south split with the north suffering the poo end of the stick..as usual.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It looks a typical north / south split with the north suffering the poo end of the stick..as usual.

Aye certainly full days play on this 12Z, for fun of course it's 384 for heaven's sake

[mb018538]

12z vey uninspiring again....probably a lower end ensemble member. Still nothing settled on the horizon, the met must have access to a secret model us mere mortals can’t see!

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

12z very uninspiring again.. Still nothing settled on the horizon

The occasional settled day here and there, mainly for the south..normal british summer weather really..this isn't the Mediterranean after all!

Edited June 15, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

Interesting 12z GEFS mean today, here T192:

I don't think it is sensible to look forward much more than this, but this high pressure setup to our east with a trough to the west looks a feature across the whole ensemble, here selected perturbations at T192:

Yes, heights to the east, but trough to the west still to close for comfort.  Let's get this done, this pattern change, then I'm fairly confident that other more enticing summer charts will start showing in the model output.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

12z vey uninspiring again....probably a lower end ensemble member. Still nothing settled on the horizon, the met must have access to a secret model us mere mortals can’t see!

Its called mogreps!! It's possible that they may even analyse data better than we do.. The 12z FV3 does bring some good ridging at times... Its not all doom and gloom... Unless you live in a cave in Manchester!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The occasional settled day here and there, mainly for the south..normal british summer weather really..this isn't the Mediterranean after all!

Your  correct Karl.. But really we should be expecting better than the odd nice day or 2....especially in a warming climate.

[Frosty.]

I think by this time next week the outlook in the more reliable timeframe will look better, at least for southern uk..brave prediction eh!!

Edited June 15, 2019 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The occasional settled day here and there, mainly for the south..normal british summer weather really..this isn't the Mediterranean after all!

It isn’t, but the met keep mentioning high pressure dominance in late June. That said they kept forecasting that for mid month onwards, and that hasn’t happened either....so it could just not happen at all - much like winter 2019 kept promising and never delivered.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It isn’t, but the met keep mentioning high pressure dominance in late June. That said they kept forecasting that for mid month onwards, and that hasn’t happened either....so it could just not happen at all - much like winter 2019 kept promising and never delivered.

There are some signs of pressure building in the final 3rd though!! Just imagine if us lot was to issue a 30 day forecast every 24 hrs!! The public would think it was being written by somebody with multiple personality disorders!

Edited June 15, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Seriously guys, that is one disappointing 12z mean... Its literally straddling the 5c mark... 

And we finish with a Pete... Edd Stone... Amazon rainfall spike.... 

Edited June 15, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

In my usual unbiased agenda free way I've found where our summer is hiding..P14!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

In my usual unbiased agenda free way I've found where our summer is hiding..P14!!

Its certainly not hiding up the M6 Karl. Surely before much longer, the output we are viewing will start to make a big upturn.