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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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The 6z op was most definitely a warm outlier!! The mean remains disappointing to say the least. Getting tedious now! Only positive is the rainfall spikes certainly not indicating anything as near wet as recently. 

Edit... It was a warm outlier towards the end of the run. 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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Some nice anticyclonic members longer term on the GEFS 6z..not a lot but I've seen more than enough dross charts posted recently..time for a few good ones!!?

SST's around the uk are nae bad too!?

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Yes Karl, the GEM is also throwing up a much warmer spell by day 10...perhaps even potentially thundery to the W/SW at times. I've noticed the big boys still calling a much better end to the month... Could our little gem be onto something!!! 

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8 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

ECM still LP dominated into last week of June. 

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Yes, I'm quite surprised by this.. Especially as I'm seeing talk of high pressure being in control come months end! Either the models are missing something.. Or we are missing something... Or both. 

Edit... I wouldn't say low pressure dominated... Ie, low pressure slap bang over the middle of us!! Still looks decent towards the South! 

ECM1-240 (1).gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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29 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The 6z op was most definitely a warm outlier!! The mean remains disappointing to say the least. Getting tedious now! Only positive is the rainfall spikes certainly not indicating anything as near wet as recently. 

Edit... It was a warm outlier towards the end of the run. 

graphe3_1000_295_96___.png

It is an outlier in the early stages, Matt; but, given the fact that it's already 19C in London, it might be that it's the rest of the pack that's in error?:unknw:

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36 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well the warmth is already starting to get squeezed out from Wednesday, highly likely it won’t happen at all before another lengthy spell of unsettled conditions along with temperatures below average. Frustrating. Gfs Ops is a cold outlier at times however the ensembles make for poor reading IMO.

If you are after a longer settled spell and some heat, then yes they are disappointing. However - compared to recently, it'll be just bog standard summer fayre. Temperatures around average, some sun, and a bit of rain. The low passing through on wednesday/thursday could give another soaking deluge though...

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6z ppn chart out to day 10 shows 25-50mm of rain quite widely (a few western locations excluded). After this low clears through nothing too extreme on the horizon.

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Hi Pete! were we not warned of the recent rollout of the new GFS ( june 12th?) and that 'temps' might trend low until they iron out the issue?

I know 'climate Reanalyser' , which uses the out put, has suddenly taken a plunge negative even with the current heatwaves dominating the hemisphere?

If we do see a model running cold then precipitation would be impacted with lower temps leading to condensation where 2c warmer would keep the water in the air?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Thanks GW...good point... It was the 12z that started rolling out and replacing the old 12z on the 12th of June.... So i would assume there are still teething problems with some of the other runs. 

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5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hi Pete! were we not warned of the recent rollout of the new GFS ( june 12th?) and that 'temps' might trend low until they iron out the issue?

I know 'climate Reanalyser' , which uses the out put, has suddenly taken a plunge negative even with the current heatwaves dominating the hemisphere?

If we do see a model running cold then precipitation would be impacted with lower temps leading to condensation where 2c warmer would keep the water in the air?

And, let us not forget that the 06Z has fewer input data to work with? I guess folk don't release as many weather balloons, when it's dark!:oldgrin:

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20 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes, I'm quite surprised by this.. Especially as I'm seeing talk of high pressure being in control come months end! Either the models are missing something.. Or we are missing something... Or both. 

Edit... I wouldn't say low pressure dominated... Ie, low pressure slap bang over the middle of us!! Still looks decent towards the South! 

ECM1-240 (1).gif

Yes looks decent for the south, can see the post you quoted though sadly,

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So you don't know if you guys know it, but t here are lots of us Glastonbury goers watching these threads on the edge of our seats! It's a rollercoaster of doom and relief for us! Sorry this isn't s post with models but just wanted you all to know, we're watching!!!

Edited by duggyfresh
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1 minute ago, duggyfresh said:

So you don't know if you guys know it, but t here are lots of us Glastonbury goers watching these threads on the edge of our seats! It's a rollercoaster of doom and relief for us! Sorry this isn't s post with models but just wanted you all to know, we're watching!!!

Welcome!

The start of Glastonbury is still out of the reliable range at the moment - models having difficulty past day 6/7, so a fortnight away is out of the question! Current indications are just average summer weather, sunshine and showers - very much subject to change. I'd say there will be a good-ish idea on Glasto weather by the middle of next week.

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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Welcome!

The start of Glastonbury is still out of the reliable range at the moment - models having difficulty past day 6/7, so a fortnight away is out of the question! Current indications are just average summer weather, sunshine and showers - very much subject to change. I'd say there will be a good-ish idea on Glasto weather by the middle of next week.

Wimbledon more important though weatherwise, 1-14 July

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28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, let us not forget that the 06Z has fewer input data to work with? I guess folk don't release as many weather balloons, when it's dark!:oldgrin:

Not correct, upper air information is available at 00z, pretty dark then. 

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Morning 

I see the 06z GFS has started to suddenly downgrade its CAPE values for Wednesday in typical fashion. Though this is partly due to the fact that the warm air from the south only clips the SE. Quite an uneventful run if it came into fruition with the most notable thing probably being some low minima values. The run is quite dry as the below chart shows with the rainfall totals being bumped up by Wednesday's low.

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Overall I'd give the 06z GFS a 6 out of 10. The 00z ECM however is more interesting as it is a bit warmer on Wednesday and then later on another pulse of warm air from the south. Though that is some distance away.

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The most noteworthy chart goes to the GFS below. 25C+ 850hpa over Austria, imagine the storms and rainfall totals from that low...

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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not correct, upper air information is available at 00z, pretty dark then. 

That bit was a joke, John...Didn't you say that the 06Zs and 18Zs run off fewer data? Apologies, if not.:oldgrin:

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Looking at the ensembles i'm not seeing much support for nationwide anticyclonic weather anytime soon but there should be at least some fine and warm spells and there could be some very warm and humid thundery plumes spreading up into southern uk from time to time with most of the cool / unsettled atlantic driven weather affecting the far NW but even those areas should improve occasionally..if I was in the s / se in particular I would be happy, there could be a lot to look forward to in the weeks ahead..reading between the lines, GloSea5 / EC32 etc..must be indicating some very summery potential for southern uk through late June and continuing well into July.?

Edited by Jon Snow
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Finally the ECM clusters are giving us options again... and actually the most encouraging for some time! Still a risky of a small trough getting stuck in the pattern, but with most of the positive anomalies not far from the UK, a decent chance of a good final week of June for many? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019061500_300.

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49 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That bit was a joke, John...Didn't you say that the 06Zs and 18Zs run off fewer data? Apologies, if not.:oldgrin:

This comes up time and time again, doesn't it?  There's a place where you can view what data goes into each run, although I can't remember where to find it, but surely the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and I have never seen any statistically significant difference for any of the 4 GFS runs in the verification stats.  Currently the 0z and 18z have a slight advantage but it's all in the noise really!

Stats at t120:

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Should probably caveat this is for the old GFS, FV3 may be different but I've no reason to expect it would be.  

By the way, does anyone know if the GEFS now use FV3?  There was never a parallel version for the ensembles, I'd be interested to know if these have also been 'upgraded'.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Welcome!

The start of Glastonbury is still out of the reliable range at the moment - models having difficulty past day 6/7, so a fortnight away is out of the question! Current indications are just average summer weather, sunshine and showers - very much subject to change. I'd say there will be a good-ish idea on Glasto weather by the middle of next week.

Thanks! Most of us on the Efestivals forum check on you about every 20 minutes or so....? You've got quite an audience at the moment. Fingers crossed for some good news next week then. Your expertise is very much appreciated and we're learning a lot about weather! 

Edited by duggyfresh
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