Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Guest]

Beginning to look like another one day South East special special on Wednesday before the GFS 00z has frontal activity sweeping in and the 2019 theme of immediate ‘payback’ weather follows on for a couple of days. At least the Ops run beyond the 21st is a cool outlier however with a complete scattergun effect in the ensembles any outcome appears possible so I will try and ignore the 13c max temps through parts of next weekend from the Op run shows Although worryingly by 144hrs UKMO is also trending pretty unsettled, less than ideal conditions Thursday/Friday and Synoptics that appears to support the GFS and another unsettled spell going into next weekend with southerly tracking Jet.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Alderc

[northwestsnow]

EC looking similar to the GFS/UKMO at 144-

A small ridge which won't hold back the low to our west, however, the hope from my perspective is the jet will take on a slightly more northerly route eventually.

The blocking to the NW showing signs of pulling west , fingers crossed an absolutely wretched month ends on a better note..

[knocker]

The weakening and retrogression of the trough from the eastern Atlantic, without being earth shattering, is a continuation of the previously indicated trend with the TPV firmly established over N. Canada

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The weakening and retrogression of the trough from the eastern Atlantic, without being earth shattering, is a continuation of the previously indicated trend with the TPV firmly established over N. Canada

I'm going to be completely honest here Knocker and say i was very suspicious of your intentions in days and months past, i know it doesn't bother you anyway but i have got to say your posts over recent times have been excellent and very informative, with no bias  whatsoever.

I wanted to write this as a way of thanking you..

edit, the ridge does hold off the low at 168, and it becomes cut off?

Edited June 15, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

EC brings a plume of hot air up from the south at day 9,the SE would be high 20's IMHO, all conjecture at that range of course..

 

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC brings a plume of hot air up from the south at day 9,the SE would be high 20's IMHO, all conjecture at that range of course..

 

Better than last evening's 12z and that wasn't too shabby, plenty of warm weather on this run, even potentially a few very warm / hot days..especially for the s / se which would make it feel like summer at least..not a settled run by any means but some fine weather for sure!

[knocker]

The ecm has the UK trough moving away to the north on Friday with another trough approaching from the west  So just some showers in the north west

The movement of the Atlantic trough is slowed on Saturday as the subtropical high ridges north so generally a dry day with temps a tad above average,

By midday Sunday the trough and associated front have made some progress and rain is into the western half of the country

Of course the detail for next weekend is not yet sorted.

[mushymanrob]

hmm.... tentetive signs of things moving in a positive direction? (albeit in fi)

 

[knocker]

The front has cleared here and it's a fine morning

Sidney junior will be pleased

[Methuselah]

Not a bad GFS 00Z, this morning -- thundery on Wednesday? No return of HLB?

 

Ensembles still suggest much of a muchness, over all?

  

[knocker]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm going to be completely honest here Knocker and say i was very suspicious of your intentions in days and months past, i know it doesn't bother you anyway but i have got to say your posts over recent times have been excellent and very informative, with no bias  whatsoever.

I wanted to write this as a way of thanking you..

 

 

Appreciate that nws but I'm intrigued as to what you thought my intentions were/are.  I mean I'm agenda free unlike everyone else with the odd exception, (rest easy JH)

Edited June 15, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

ECM H500 NH plot looks okay at T240: 

In that there's little indication of any substantial Greenland block. Maybe no heatwave, but we can at least say goodbye to the 10C days? 

[Frosty.]

Sorry can't post the charts right now but the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks much better towards the end, especially day 10 with the azores high / ridge building in and becoming much warmer..next midweek could be very warm too, mainly for the s / se.

Edit..here they are.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Djdazzle]

Promising day 10 mean on the ECM. FI yes, but good to see anyway. It could herald a proper summer spell.

 

EDIT: Jon Snow posted the same thing - snap!

Edited June 15, 2019 by Djdazzle

[damianslaw]

Models suggest a return to something more typical for the time of year, a generally westerly flow in the main, temperatures very much average, warmest conditions reserved for the SE corner of the Uk, wettest and coolest conditions for the NW, Preety standard fayre and far better than the past 2-3 weeks, but no signal for any substantial settled spell or any significantly warm in the foreseeable at least.

 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad GFS 00Z, this morning -- thundery on Wednesday? No return of HLB?

 

Ensembles still suggest much of a muchness, over all?

  

There seems to be a real split developing around the 23rd, with half the ensemble members building pressure.....while the other half drop it away.

The ECM cluster from last night shows this quite well on the 25th, and the  ECM 00z ensemble also heading back up to a mean of 10c by day 9/10, which is a positive:




 

[Methuselah]

Wednesday still looking good for summat thundery:

 

Hottest summer since 2018 is guaranteed!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Jet still in Washing Machine mode over weekend.

Normality? of sorts  - best for SE

[Iceaxecrampon]

59 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models suggest a return to something more typical for the time of year, a generally westerly flow in the main, temperatures very much average, warmest conditions reserved for the SE corner of the Uk, wettest and coolest conditions for the NW, Preety standard fayre and far better than the past 2-3 weeks, but no signal for any substantial settled spell or any significantly warm in the foreseeable at least.

 

Windermere 

[Gordon Webb]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Wednesday still looking good for summat thundery:

 

Hottest summer since 2018 is guaranteed!

you would have thought after all the moaning done by some about the rain this past week that more rain would be the last thing they would want 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

you would have thought after all the moaning done by some about the rain this past week that more rain would be the last thing they would want 

not by me, it's the cool temps I have now had enough of, know it's only mid June, but Wed again looking cool only 15-16 degrees

[I remember Atlantic 252]

settling down but still not warming up much, not a write off as such, but wouldn't surprise me if there was no 20 degrees this June for this area

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-MR take on Wednesdays temps and Cape, Scope for some big storms down in the S/E.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

Day 10 ECM cluster:



Nothing much to write home about - a continuation of average temperatures, sunshine and showers most likely.

By day 12 a number of cluster members trying to build stronger heights and a proper high over the UK (darker reds appearing) - but cluster 3 with an almost equal probability has a trough instead.



Basically - impossible to tell what's going to happen at the moment.

[Guest]

Well the warmth is already starting to get squeezed out from Wednesday, highly likely it won’t happen at all before another lengthy spell of unsettled conditions along with temperatures below average. Frustrating. Gfs Ops is a cold outlier at times however the ensembles make for poor reading IMO.