Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ukmo 12h there's an improvement in surface conditions coming, especially further s / se where it may become very warm for a time, as well as drier and sunnier than we've seen recently but NW Britain is the exception where it stays generally cooler and more unsettled, nowhere is immune from rain as even the s / se could see some thundery showers associated with importing some continental air into southern uk briefly next week and by day 6 it becomes cooler as an atlantic trough introduces a w'ly / nw'ly breeze and a mix of sunshine and showers, again the southeast may be better than elsewhere.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Jon Snow

[049balt]

Yes Tamara, definitely your best post and most helpful. A very valued contribution.

[knocker]

The GEFS ext pretty much as expected with the TPV over the Pole/N. Canada  and an upper westerly flow across the Atlantic which is relatively benign by the time it reaches the positive anomalies in the east. Probably still  portending changeable with a N/S bias and temps around average

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean also indicates a brief but very noticeable warm up next week, especially for the s / se... Longer term, although it doesn't suggest any strong support for anticyclones it does at least look rather warmer than we've seen recently and some fine weather is hinted at, particularly across southern uk.

[Methuselah]

Ace post from @Tamara...I even think I'm starting to understand it better, now!

[Mike Poole]

Back to basics then..and the 12z GEFS ensembles. Here T240 mean:

Not bad, here are some of the more summery individual members:

Not quite there yet, but summer is bubbling under, this kind of chart is likely the form horse come tomorrows 12z suite, I would suggest.    

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z ensembles are looking okay, though not spectacular:

     

    

[Frosty.]

All in all, not a bad Ecm 12z operational, certainly much better than this week with at least some fine and warmer spells, especially further s / se where it could become very warm for a time next week and increasingly humid, there is a risk of thundery showers at times too.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

Leaving the short range aside for the moment the ecm at t144 has the upper trough to the NW of the UK with a shallow low tracking north east across the UK resulting in quite a wet day on Wednesday. As the low exits into the North Sea and beyond it gets incorporated within the circulation of the main low to the north west and the latter consequently tracks south east and associated fronts bring more rain to the north of the country. Temps around average but below under the rain. By midday Friday the low is still adjacent to northern Scotland so some rain here and showers further south in the westerly flow. Temps below average.

A summation of the NH profile for this period highlights the problem if there is some strong ridging into the Labrador Straits and an intense TPV around Franz Joseph which maintains the trough in the eastern Atlantic and which starts to lose it's grip by the end of the period

[mb018538]

ECM goes a bit downhill tonight, but to be honest after day 5 at the moment is fantasy land. Lots of ensemble noise even at day 5 - 850s ranging from 5-10c at short timeframes never inspires much confidence.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM goes a bit downhill tonight, but to be honest after day 5 at the moment is fantasy land. Lots of ensemble noise even at day 5 - 850s ranging from 5-10c at short timeframes never inspires much confidence.

At least it looks better than this week, not that it would be difficult but some decent uppers and at least some ridging  next week, not the dismal cool and washout that this week has been!

[mb018538]

The day 10 chart has washout written all over it - but it’s day 10 and looks far too pessimistic to me. I’d expect the ensembles and clusters to paint a different picture than a trough parked over the UK again.

[cheeky_monkey]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

Leaving the short range aside for the moment the ecm at t144 has the upper trough to the NW of the UK with a shallow low tracking north east across the UK resulting in quite a wet day on Wednesday. As the low exits into the North Sea and beyond it gets incorporated within the circulation of the main low to the north west and the latter consequently tracks south east and associated fronts bring more rain to the north of the country. Temps around average but below under the rain. By midday Friday the low is still adjacent to northern Scotland so some rain here and showers further south in the westerly flow. Temps below average.

A summation of the NH profile for this period highlights the problem if there is some strong ridging into the Labrador Straits and an intense TPV around Franz Joseph which maintains the trough in the eastern Atlantic and which starts to lose it's grip by the end of the period

looks pretty cool and wet across N.America

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

looks pretty cool and wet across N.America

Well NA is a pretty large block of land but at t168 not particularly either except around the two troughs

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by knocker

[cheeky_monkey]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well NA is a pretty large block of land but at t168 not particularly either except around the two troughs

 

in my experience those are some pretty cool looking charts for this time of the year across most of the Continent ..usually there is an east west split..with one or the other being hot and dry and the other cooler and wetter

[northwestsnow]

Good news is EC mean continues to push the jet further north in time...

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Folks! A Quick heads up looking like flooding rain in some parts next week 

[knocker]

NOAA and the ext EPS very much on the same page this evening with both showing a brisk zonal flow across the Atlantic which would still portend changeable weather, perhaps a tending towards a N/S split with temps around average. Of course this does not rule out some high pressure influence on the day to day basis as the Pm and Tm airmasses phase

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good news is EC mean continues to push the jet further north in time...

 

Indeed, here's the charts.

[knocker]

And the jet

[StormChaseUK]

Marvelous to see the jet move north. Things are looking a lot more positive now 

[summer blizzard]

Despite the optimisim i see little in the 12z models to excite me beyond an average to poor outlook.

Euro has a rather average outlook until the end when it cuts off another low near our east.

GFS has a rather average outlook until about day 12 when it goes back to very unsettled.

[StormChaseUK]

18z hmm looks like we are turning a corner.

The heat northern europe /Russia had is finally giving way..  good sign

[knocker]

Outlook - The south/south east of the country will slowly slip from under the umbrella of the upper low as it changes position and orientation to the north west

The NH 500mb profile and North atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK chart

The east and south east will start the day dry and relatively clear but cloud and rain is already into western regions courtesy of a rather complex frontal system tracking east in the southern quadrant of the aforementioned low. The movement east of the occlusion and the band of showery rain, which will contain some heavy pulses, will continue today so cloud will gradually effect eastern regions whilst a clearance gets underway in the west behind the front.

The occlusion will clear to the east during the evening apart from NE Scotland so showery rain persisting there. And further showers will creep into the south courtesy of a a perturbation on a remnant of the old front.

The showery rain will clear north east Scotland Sunday morning but further front(s)/troughs wilt track north east in the circulation of the low so a breezy day of sunshine and heavy showers, and longer periods of rain where they coalesce.

The complex nature of the analysis embedded within the circulation of the low continues overnight and through Monday so another day of sunshine and showers, some heavy and prolonged.But the changes mentioned at the beginning are underway as the orientation of the upper low shifts. And it is starting to get a tad warmer in eastern regions

The changes aloft continue through Tuesday which will be a more pleasant day as warmer air is advected in from the south west. Relatively dry as well apart from the north west courtesy of an occlusion associated with the filling low.

But this slow evolution has opened the back door and a shallow thundery low tracks north east on Wednesday to bring heavy downpours to most regions apart from the far north

Edited June 15, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the gfs

The rain spreads to Scotland as the low continues to track north east and phase with the old low. So once this clears a showery day Thursday in the westerly wind.

Sunny intervals and showers again on Friday and by Saturday the old trough is finally out of the way to the north as further troughs approach from the south west.