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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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06Z ensembles look very normal:image.thumb.png.ea07ccf55f119bb56feb1d73340bbefb.png                                                                                image.thumb.png.6a6210eb860a7392a47e6a4c78e8601a.pngimage.thumb.png.05bee5d5b69253c671db7f294e840920.png      

SLP chart for Iceland looks devoid of any noteworthy NB signal:        

image.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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My own summarisation of prospects for this season to date has been concluded, but before that happens, I cannot leave the quoted post remain unanswered as it requires 'outing' for its wholly unaccepta

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Potential windchill for next Wednesday 

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Just a point from a casual observer with very little knowledge of how to evaluate the model outputs, it would be shame for posters who articulate their points in such a good way to be put off posting due to the apparent trolling coming from others.

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12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Despite some of the things you are reading on here the GEFS 6z mean shows an improvement early next week and then again from the end of next week with the south and east doing best, as is typical in summer with lower heights to the NW keeping the n / nw in a predominantly cooler changeable / unsettled atlantic regime but with some fine and warmer spells too, especially in the longer term and the s / se in particular could become very warm at times with continental influence as well as the azores high / ridge..

........... i see frosty has gone all 'throney' on us lol

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

06Z ensembles look very normal:image.thumb.png.ea07ccf55f119bb56feb1d73340bbefb.png                                                                                image.thumb.png.6a6210eb860a7392a47e6a4c78e8601a.pngimage.thumb.png.05bee5d5b69253c671db7f294e840920.png      

SLP chart for Iceland looks devoid of any noteworthy NB signal:        

image.png

Normal will seem good Ed, following such a dismal start to summer!?

Edited by Jon Snow
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Maybe have a sticky of exactly what posters are required to post or limited access only.

It's a catch 22 or no win for some

Poster: I disagree with the XXz GFS output it looks like a terrible summer
Reply: This is model output only it.s not like 2012 do not discuss this go to  XYZ  discussion instead. 

Poster: XXz GFS shows heatwave in 9 days time
Reply: That is FI , it won't verify go to XYZ discussion instead. 

I think the awkward bit is between those that are academic/theoretical interest of models scientifically
and those that are also interested in model output but are more historically interested in model discussion, past events, rainfall recording, past summers, 2012 etc.
 

I only just noticed this thread in  General discussion today - so I will post there I think for more general rants about summer
Unless I have missed it somewhere , there needs to be a "scientific model thread" and "general chat model thread" 

 

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10 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Unless I have missed it somewhere , there needs to be a "scientific model thread" and "general chat model thread" 

 

Been tried before and didn't work very well. And in any case it shouldn't be necessary if people just stuck to the guide lines. Variations in knowledge base is not necessaryly a bad thing, otherwise how do we all learn? Unfortunately, and the winter thread is a fine example, copious amounts of irrelevant drivel can derail the thread. But, and it's big but, at the end of the day this doesn't really matter because it's what the majority want.

Edited by knocker
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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Been tried before and didn't work very well. And in any case it shouldn't be necessary if people just stuck to the guide lines. Variations in knowledge base is not necessaryly a bad thing, otherwise how do we all learn? Unfortunately, and the winter thread is a fine example, copious amounts of irrelevant drivel can derail the thread. But, and it's big but, at the end of the day this doesn't really matter because it's what the majority want.

Hmm yes I see your point.  If it was scientific output only,  there would only be 2 or 3 posting - If there are no limitations then you get more people visiting, everyone posts but that dilutes the scientific side.  

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45 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

........... i see frosty has gone all 'throney' on us lol

A change is as good as a rest..?

looking at the models, a change there too from utterly abysmal to less abysmal..especially further s / se where it should feel like summer at times..but..winter is coming!!!:shok:? 

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8 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Interesting that the JMA is showing a return to northern blocking for early July

I was interested until you said JMA..a model i never bother looking at!?

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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

I was interested until you said JMA..a model i never bother looking at!?

? so we have gone from being selective about the nature of discussion, to selective on what type of model

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10 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Interesting that the JMA is showing a return to northern blocking for early July

northern blocking per se isnt the problem, theres often high pressure over greenland.
its the strength, shape and orientation of such a block  that is the key.

and early july is so far in fi, its as accurate as a christmas forecast!

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The upper low that has been a complete pain this week slowly slides around to be WNW of N. Ireland by o600 tomorrow.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-0578400.thumb.png.1f61f52525539f9ea2219f1a927a8341.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.53a3ae1eee92e9b991fd53b75554fc4a.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.68a3ab1554e9f38ad3b7c8d3ef8c668b.gif

So this evening the showers, which by now are mainly over eastern England, will quickly dissipate leaving a clear and dry night in many areas. But an  occlusion which is associated with a frontal system which is swinging around the southern quadrant of the low will bring cloud and patchy rain into western areas by around midnight. This will track slowly east during the early hours and become more concentrated with heavy bursts in some western areas and N. Ireland in particular

precip_d02_12.thumb.png.060254952c65d80751776f0f02ad0cca.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.04fb4c40d4d73e3507537b61a6c0ab6f.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.55a6cd247e716255dd0b46a3951b0535.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.375144054715252a6826e9c1bb912bd3.pngprecip_d02_25.thumb.png.88ddb58cc96ff3ac2ef2d2ffb0e5adf0.png

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 theres often high pressure over greenland.
 

Indeed mushy it's normally what we call a surface high isn't it?..or am I wrong.?

Edited by Jon Snow
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

theres often NO high pressure over Greenland during the Winter months.
 

Spot on Mushy - agree 100%. ?

Tell you what it looks very pleasant for all you lucky folk in the Southeast over the next few days - chart below for example and many others from the GFS earlier. (Metoffice outlook in agreement)

1534E62B-12EE-49AD-A06A-E85F9BB57E87.thumb.png.1be66c517b044837ab8f3e58a626bd42.png

I would take the average Summer temperatures you ladies and gents get anytime during the Summer! 19 degrees to 23 is tropical here! ?

Have a good weekend everyone - that’s enough chasing a bit of average warmth/sun for me this week! 

Cheers! ?

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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NetWx-MR take on temps uptill Wednesday, Certainly much warmer than of late if not very warm for the S/E and into Central/Northern England and East Yorkshire, But cooler further North up into Scotland. High Cape values also Modeled on Wednesday which could very well produce some storms for the South with plenty of showers. 

12761095_viewimage(2).thumb.png.8529d1730baa97da44803bbe65c0137e.png322383553_viewimage(3).thumb.png.b8f8629cad7a689f8c6cb320375d9e53.png1372300612_viewimage(4).thumb.png.ac31e612efb1859f53283f6fdfb35e30.png249917655_viewimage(5).thumb.png.8c014c270d18dd2dddda06b87cc4ed86.png1645193030_viewimage(6).thumb.png.b25dc9deb0288350c70b953535028688.png1599560720_viewimage(7).thumb.png.03cb5dffed65f2477b41c1a8c1853153.png

 

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

? so we have gone from being selective about the nature of discussion, to selective on what type of model

Everyone has, I suspect, both their favourite and one at the opposite end. A case of each of us using what we prefer so long as we state which it is and for what time scale. 

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Early doors on the 12s, here ICON, GFS and GEM at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.0b6d459a7248813f94639df0784b1eeb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.cbd2bc218272e9adb182e2d8069b38dc.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.e57bae653f6697561dd61a910d318d18.jpg

Coherent signal for a build of pressure for UK, as per expectations, wouldn't like to analyse much in the runs beyond T180 at the moment, let's get this delivered and then we will see what might follow...

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1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-MR take on temps uptill Wednesday, Certainly much warmer than of late if not very warm for the S/E and into Central/Northern England and East Yorkshire, But cooler further North up into Scotland. High Cape values also Modeled on Wednesday which could very well produce some storms for the South with plenty of showers. 

12761095_viewimage(2).thumb.png.8529d1730baa97da44803bbe65c0137e.png322383553_viewimage(3).thumb.png.b8f8629cad7a689f8c6cb320375d9e53.png1372300612_viewimage(4).thumb.png.ac31e612efb1859f53283f6fdfb35e30.png249917655_viewimage(5).thumb.png.8c014c270d18dd2dddda06b87cc4ed86.png1645193030_viewimage(6).thumb.png.b25dc9deb0288350c70b953535028688.png1599560720_viewimage(7).thumb.png.03cb5dffed65f2477b41c1a8c1853153.png

 

 

A tad disappointing this run for me when I'll be camping in Pembrokeshire, only Tuesday will be around average, Wednesday looks very cool @13C a bit like this week, of course there's a chance though if we avoid the very warm humid air we might actually miss the storms and stay drier perhaps 

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