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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

The GFS 12Z is a bit disaster IMO, bar a very brief warm up through Tuesday & Wednesday next its followed by a succession of lows despite the collapse of the Greenland heights. To be fair at least it stays milder.....

Can't wait to see how all you 'Glass have full' peeps ramp this up......

Nothing to ramp about but it is miles better than what we currently have. The Atlantic mobile pattern is, as the name suggests, mobile. Yes we will get rain bands for a few hours at a time but that will be interspersed with brighter and warmer weather, and we will not be stuck under cloud and rain for days at a time. It is not perfect but it is in another league compared to this absolute sh*te we have now. I honestly cannot think of anything worse, this week has been 0/10.

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

You keep pointing out how bad the GFS is. Ukmo looks OK, ecm to come. We had a fantastic spell last year, does it really matter if the first few weeks of summer are mixed! I can't see much ramping going on tbh, I can see folk saying things are better than currently. 

I wish this summer was mixed.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
39 minutes ago, knocker said:

And further to my earlier comment it will be interesting to see whether the GEFS and EPS get any traction out of this

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1464000.thumb.png.8f4e9e1d62d2c0cd77b32e8388cc1bad.png

Certainly some

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1464000.thumb.png.9b2d516f3bdef48650b7ce0578c11584.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Best 12z run probably the GEM here at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.22b7835a7796edceefaf2a07682ff365.jpg

Moving on to this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c1a5aaa8a953d676c6b210cbb2bb5384.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5e77a1a161cc97cccdf570a2a5b14c7c.jpg

On an another note, the elephant in the room if you like, I no longer have a 'reputation'.  I will therefore be spending a lot less time posting on here, the corollary is that those that never had one will be posting more. 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Political comment removed.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

My god... ECM is only bringing some warmth into next week... Turn the heating down, throw away those hot water bottles.... Fling open ya windows, order your fans now.... We may not be able to cope after the recent spell....

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Average weather is going to feel great next week..in the south

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Average weather is going to feel great next week..in the south

Yes a bit of a stinker so far for the rest of us and even the South/Southeast on the ECM 192 chart. (Although anything is better than what loads of folk have had to endure the past few days - plus the next run will be completely different! 

77D1E46B-9134-4694-ABE7-3176AE0874E3.thumb.png.9a06c6e1474284fd8cbeb1f1bbfd8465.png087A0377-E69B-4DFC-A190-404F9B624D5D.thumb.png.3264b83d52170ba49f7d97b99ca085a2.png

Any chance @DiagonalRedLine could hide this thread for a week or two until we see more of a pattern change to above average temps and plenty of sun for all the UK and Ireland?  (Chasing average Summer UK weather charts is starting to bore me to death!)

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Average weather is going to feel great next week..in the south

I sense this is about right. The second half of June may well be a North / south split, from the charts I've been looking at. Heights improving to the south, but heights not weakening drastically to our north - the Atlantic path may well be directed through the NW, while the south may occasionally tap into warmer air...? 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That's more like it:

image.thumb.jpg.17486d1d03a4359b616d571e2ac9fed0.jpg

ECM T240.  I genuinely think that this evolution is a possibility, even probability for summer (or the rest of it anyway) once we get through this Greenland blocking period, we will see...

Not a warm chart though Mike - hopefully going forward the high uppers start to move North and back West! 

ECM 240 

6CB079B9-A819-4C49-A555-46D73417183D.thumb.png.e2009ad7a9cf7703e28e20e6d0b2190a.png

I am hoping you are spot on with regards to thoughts going forward - it has been a painfully slow start for proper Summer warmth/sunshine!

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Not a warm chart though Mike - hopefully going forward the high uppers start to move North and back West! 

ECM 240 

6CB079B9-A819-4C49-A555-46D73417183D.thumb.png.e2009ad7a9cf7703e28e20e6d0b2190a.png

I am hoping you are spot on with regards to thoughts going forward - it has been a painfully slow start for proper Summer warmth/sunshine!

You had your summer the other day Mr frost... You gorra wait another year now....

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

If this is a "mixed summer"    then I am scared to see what a bad summer looks like

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Best 12z run probably the GEM here at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.22b7835a7796edceefaf2a07682ff365.jpg

Moving on to this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c1a5aaa8a953d676c6b210cbb2bb5384.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5e77a1a161cc97cccdf570a2a5b14c7c.jpg

On an another note, the elephant in the room if you like, I no longer have a 'reputation'.  I will therefore be spending a lot less time posting on here, the corollary is that those that never had one will be posting more. 

I blame it on the Northern Hemisphere's (or should that be Oceania's?) synoptic profile myself, Mike:

image.thumb.png.ffd5cfa96c4c58422e3c187a189c771c.pngimage.thumb.png.1ce3ff0c1d9907ee01387cb602492735.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
Removed 'political' content...I must learn to be PC!
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

ECM ending on a high note, I think if this were to run a  couple more days, we would also be seeing quite a warm up... Let's see where it sits in the ensembles.... Over to you Karl..... King of the mean!!!

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Blimey Pete I think you must be posting the precipitation charts for the Amazon rain forest here, either that or some ones tachycardia graph looks like off the scale rainfall in places!! And looking at the meteociel graph, rainfall seems to be on the decrease as we progress further Into the month. 

graphe3_1000_262_88___.png

If rainfall doesn't decrease we are actually on track for worse June than 2012   by this date in June 2012 we had 86mm here in 2019 it is 99.3mm
so well on course to beat 2012.    So all those who said this is like 2012 or worse and got slated - you are correct rainfall wise

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

If rainfall doesn't decrease we are actually on track for worse June than 2012   by this date in June 2012 we had 86mm here in 2019 it is 99.3mm
so well on course to beat 2012.    So all those who said this is like 2012 or worse and got slated - you are correct rainfall wise

Most people were being laughed at prior to the beast from the east in 2018...saying it was to late.. Or wouldn't come off!! We have got very unlucky with the Conditions over the last week.... This is a situation you would expect in January, and not June!!! These conditions don't come around every year to this extreme, so to say the ones who called it correct.... Would leave me just a tad sceptical! The ensembles do show a drying up trend for sure, and it pretty much coincides with exters thoughts to. On a more positive note... July can surely only get better! 

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

I don't think these conditions could occur in January the excessive rainfull is being driven by heat over Europe/East

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, StormChaseUK said:

I don't think these conditions could occur in January the excessive rainfull is being driven by heat over Europe/East

In some of the run of mild wet winters we had... I've seen this before in January, with major flooding around the prone areas... Jet stream bang over us bringing rain band after rain band.. This low pressure has had nowhere to go... Completely boxed in by high pressure, not to mention a distorted jet. If we can just keep the heights lower to our NW, at least we should finally start to see something resembling summer. My only concern is a NW/SE split becoming prominent during the next part of summer... Meaning those further North have nothing to write home about. Those from the Midlands South fairing better. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

The next week looks fairly unsettled to say the least, the following Sunday to Tuesday not too bad, warmer anyway and then it's back to unsettled again, especially further north. _20190613_203757.thumb.JPG.023336a1675a1d14aa66195d20b0b117.JPG

_20190613_204136.JPG

_20190613_203841.JPG

_20190613_204056.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

In some of the run of mild wet winters we had... I've seen this before in January, with major flooding around the prone areas... Jet stream bang over us bringing rain band after rain band.. This low pressure has had nowhere to go... Completely boxed in by high pressure, not to mention a distorted jet. If we can just keep the heights lower to our NW, at least we should finally start to see something resembling summer. My only concern is a NW/SE split becoming prominent during the next part of summer... Meaning those further North have nothing to write home about. Those from the Midlands South fairing better. 

best setup is high over Scotland, everyone joins in, not sure if that's possible though in August

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

ECM mean folks... Not to bad. 

EDM1-144 (1).gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192 (1).gif

EDM1-216 (1).gif

EDM1-240 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
24 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I don't think these conditions could occur in January the excessive rainfull is being driven by heat over Europe/East

The excessive rainfall is due to the pattern establishing the stagnation of the upper trough over the UK and thus slow moving and persistant fronts/troughs within the circulation. Which is perhaps just starting to slowly relax

index.thumb.png.c144d709892c67e1dbd0b6aef35774f4.pngindex2.thumb.png.47e165a0e44e94f6f38e506d130bdf33.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Evening All!! Good news for next week it does get warmer and drier for a while.  But still the model suite is very hazy in the outlook and any substantial build of pressure is is now very unlikely...High level of Shannon entropy,  but there is potential for again  next week  to receive copious amounts of rain somewhere in the UK  ...Watch this space Oh and 2012...

ecmt850.168-1.png

h850t850eu-12.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's like groundhog day in here again.. Would just love to no who this Shannon girl is!! ECM mean is better than the op.... Still plenty of work to be done though. 

graphe_ens3 (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It's like groundhog day in here again.. Would just love to no who this Shannon girl is!! ECM mean is better than the op.... Still plenty of work to be done though. 

graphe_ens3 (2).png

Here you go, Matt: Shannon Entropy 101: https://medium.com/udacity/shannon-entropy-information-gain-and-picking-balls-from-buckets-5810d35d54b4 :oldgood:

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