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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
22 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Well at least we are not stuck in that hideous European heat this afternoon. 

_20190613_161001.JPG

Painful viewing.    West in February/March  -  East in June/July

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Well at least we are not stuck in that hideous European heat this afternoon. 

_20190613_161001.JPG

Yes, very nice temperatures there. 13C and rain is certainly much less pleasant...

Edited by stainesbloke
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Can I have some purple please....would love some 40c+! 

we already have temps in the 40's here.....Fahrenheit, that is :oldwink:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks OK for next week, temps improving but with some showers around i would imagine..

Cant post charts as on notso smartfone.

Agreed, the ukmo 12h looks better (predominantly warmer and drier) the further south by southeast you are next week..big improvement compared to this weeks unseasonably cool unsettled dross but that improvement is mainly for southern uk and more specifically the s / se.

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Here you go guys, UKMO charts for next week. 

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

The GFS 12Z is a bit disaster IMO, bar a very brief warm up through Tuesday & Wednesday next its followed by a succession of lows despite the collapse of the Greenland heights. To be fair at least it stays milder.....

Can't wait to see how all you 'Glass have full' peeps ramp this up......

Edited by Alderc
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GFS 12Z looks much better at T120...What could possibly go wrong?☔

image.thumb.png.246d2a0400ed73ab7d6299abcdf67495.pngimage.thumb.png.5e10267d41dec5b2250d24d7f495cb53.png 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS 12Z is a bit disaster IMO, bar a very brief warm up through Tuesday & Wednesday next its followed by a succession of lows despite the collapse of the Greenland heights. To be fair at least it stays milder.....

Can't wait to see how all you 'Glass have full' peeps ramp this up......

You keep pointing out how bad the GFS is. Ukmo looks OK, ecm to come. We had a fantastic spell last year, does it really matter if the first few weeks of summer are mixed! I can't see much ramping going on tbh, I can see folk saying things are better than currently. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Can't wait to see how all you 'Glass have full' peeps ramp this up......

There's nothing to ramp up but a return to more typical June weather will do for now..especially further south which means your location should do much better than the North next week!!

Edited by Frosty.
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

You keep pointing out how bad the GFS is. Ukmo looks OK, ecm to come. We had a fantastic spell last year, does it really matter if the first few weeks of summer are mixed! I can't see much ramping going on tbh, I can see folk saying things are better than currently. 

Yes I think one or two people define good summer weather as 38.5C+ and set their standards far too high.

Saying the GFS 12z is a disaster is fake news really. It looks like standard June fare with the odd warmer day. Not being glass half full, just realistic in the context of UK summer climate.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

During the latter part of next week the gfs attempts to promote the east Atlantic and European subtropical high zones and disrupt the north Russia TPV trough connection south adjacent to the UK. This would be good if it were to happen. not likely of course

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0945600.thumb.png.4fb75abac74eb0a686f552863bafdf0c.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1032000.thumb.png.1b17f7eab50799398e62287f3003974c.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1118400.thumb.png.fc2a0022b2dbb992fc79d98f7eaf9878.png

Edited by knocker
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Shocking! Disgusting! Filth! Vile!

image.thumb.png.cca84b0d4e17f7a29d8a60721ef351c1.pngimage.thumb.png.a7d423c469c3aefe9ff4ac3180771485.png 

Better stop, before I get challenged for repetition!

Edited by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed.
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes I think one or two people define good summer weather as 38.5C+ and set their standards far too high.

 

And conversely a whole swathe of members define good winter weather as -10C and set their standards far too high whilst normal folk call that bad weather.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

Anybody who calls the GFS 12z a disgusting run is either drunk, trolling or living in the wrong country!

It won’t go down in history, but disgusting?

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Back to model discussion please, This is not the place to talk of other members or posting styles.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

And further to my earlier comment it will be interesting to see whether the GEFS and EPS get any traction out of this

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1464000.thumb.png.8f4e9e1d62d2c0cd77b32e8388cc1bad.png

Edited by knocker
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The 12Z ensemble points toward a run of very run-of-the-mill days:

image.thumb.png.d990bdcc096c1670b1c241261451f6b4.pngimage.thumb.png.a2c154c988481cc42f765e40493ff4e2.png  

image.thumb.png.f5096f9afeaffe0ae0c8eb3c8f982199.pngimage.thumb.png.c46d002f8002000b4bdaab76c7387260.png  

And, the precipitation graph is still throwing a wobbly!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking at the longer term GEFS 12z mean  I'm sensing more chance of high pressure, more chance of continental heat..in other words, better than this week's filth and the generally poor start to summer...no guarantees of course but the mean does become more summer like later!!..next week looks better too, especially further s / se..

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes I think one or two people define good summer weather as 38.5C+ and set their standards far too high.

Saying the GFS 12z is a disaster is fake news really. It looks like standard June fare with the odd warmer day. Not being glass half full, just realistic in the context of UK summer climate.

GFS 12z is not a disaster but 20C at the moment will feel like heatwave.   And given recent posts some people consider 21C, 22C as too high expectation.
June is the prime month of the year for warmth so we should expect 20-23C  

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

image.thumb.png.c46d002f8002000b4bdaab76c7387260.png  

And, the precipitation graph is still throwing a wobbly!

Blimey Pete I think you must be posting the precipitation charts for the Amazon rain forest here, either that or some ones tachycardia graph looks like off the scale rainfall in places!! And looking at the meteociel graph, rainfall seems to be on the decrease as we progress further Into the month. 

graphe3_1000_262_88___.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And looking at the meteociel graph, rainfall seems to be on the decrease as we progress further Into the month. 

 

That would certainly tie in with the background signals!!...oops I've cursed it now.:oops:

Edited by Frosty.
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Is it safe to say this fv3 is still cack?? The ensembles always look a dogs dinner!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Is it safe to say this fv3 is still cack?? The ensembles always look a dogs dinner!

Follow the runs carefully, you will see +15 uppers become 0c uppers from time to Time. Is the old gfs being discontinued Completely, or running along side the FV3? 

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