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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's very profound, SCUK: the current pattern is locked in until it isn't?:oldgrin:

PS: The GFS updater is having a wobbly, just now!:shok:

All seems too much for the GFS   has commited  Hara-Kiri

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

This looks OK from the 6z so far... Lovely to see those intense Greenland heights doing one.... Please pay us another visit in December. 

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-1-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

From this image.thumb.png.2c20ce539088351137fefc73409db707.png at T120 to this image.thumb.png.f0fe3740efd7bcdef5615b59525f88a7.png

at T240, and to this image.thumb.png.82daffdc8d76f99cb31a4a9c49e280b8.png at T300...Looks like a pattern-change to me.:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

To me Pete it looks like it is putting us back to square one in fi with low pressure being boxed in with surrounding High pressure, with disappointing uppers again on show! Just as well its deep in fi... But surely not again! 

gfs-0-324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Looks like the middle/end of next week continues the unsettled theme according to ECM. Though slightly warmer. Could be a long wait for summer. 

_20190613_120210.JPG

_20190613_120100.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

To me Pete it looks like it is putting us back to square one in fi with low pressure being boxed in with surrounding High pressure, with disappointing uppers again on show! Just as well its deep in fi... But surely not again! 

gfs-0-324.png

Oh I dunno, Matt...It ain't that bad a pattern! image.thumb.png.a63ed886afbe44279353e6276122e6d4.png:unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Just now, StormChaseUK said:

Not much improvement at all, square one cycle continues.

GFSOPUK06_372_48.png

You do realise that chart is over 2 weeks away?

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, danm said:

You do realise that chart is over 2 weeks away?

Yes and so were the very warm ones posted earlier.  hence the square one comment.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Not a bad 6z operational apart from the start and finish, certainly next week looks better compared to this week, especially further south / southeast with at least some warm fine spells, but then, that's not saying much really!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

 

Until that heat shifts from Germany, Poland, Arctic Circle, Finland  our pattern is locked in

 

This makes no sense...it's the pattern change that will shift the heat from that area, not the heat shifting that will break the pattern surely!

Changes are afoot that's for sure. It may not be exactly what we want to see yet but no one can deny that the charts are showing changes already.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looking fairly average - quite tight temperature banding on the 850 ensembles, with ppn spikes appearing through. No dry settled weather of any length on the cards, but equally the washout of the last week gone too. Just average summer weather, temperatures about where you'd expect.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
21 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Not much improvement at all, square one cycle continues.

GFSOPUK06_372_48.png

GFSOPUK06_180_17.png

Here's another one for you- only around a week out and that looks like a huge improvement to me on 12C and rain that we've had this week! Especially in the south east where it could become very warm next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

This makes no sense...it's the pattern change that will shift the heat from that area, not the heat shifting that will break the pattern surely!

Changes are afoot that's for sure. It may not be exactly what we want to see yet but no one can deny that the charts are showing changes already.

With that, you've highlighted a problem I have: does the spatial relationship between contrasting air-masses cause, or result from, the overall NH weather pattern?

I keep getting stuck with a chicken-and-egg problem...:unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

06Z ensembles still showing (how could they really show anything else!) improvement:

image.thumb.png.ef996934ca11ccc8aaefb2e057b852e4.png image.thumb.png.85c29854cc2725edbc6e55db7c35ccf4.png 

image.thumb.png.938902450468621ec2ee4d4f4de9c64f.pngimage.thumb.png.6f47e08714039a1d26e54b7459a59c61.png 

I can't tell whether we're moving to the Amazon Basin or to The Congo, as those precipitation spikes appear to be absurd!☔

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean indicates some better weather for most of next week compared to this week's rubbish, at least for southern uk but in a week's time there's a blip as a showery trough drifts over the uk but beyond that it's predominantly an upward curve, again, mainly for southern uk with at least some weather resembling summery!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Azazel don't get to hung up on some of the more negative posts, showing the worse case scenario... The general consensus is for warmer conditions to come in.... Next week  could become quite showery later, perhaps even some storms, and there are growing signs of high pressure being more of a key player  ome months end!!! Trust me it's better than the current garbage we have had. 

Edited by Mapantz
removed hidden quote
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
26 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Azazel don't get to hung up on some of the more negative posts, showing the worse case scenario... The general consensus is for warmer conditions to come in.... Next week  could become quite showery later, perhaps even some storms, and there are growing signs of high pressure being more of a key player  ome months end!!! Trust me it's better than the current garbage we have had. 

I think Azazel is hung up on the temps shown in that chart rather than negative posts!......

My broadbrush interpretation of the major model suites outputs over the past 48 hours is one of an improvement on current conditions, not 'high summer heat' by any stretch of the imagination, but the feeling that weather conditions surely can't get any worse!.....In saying that though, some of the output gives a 'soft' signal of a return to unsettled weather with troughing close to the UK throughout the model runs. One can hope that this 'groundhog day' scenario will not verify, but one can't rule it out either, fingers crossed the former will be truer to the mark 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

People are extrapolating a poor week of weather it seems onto the rest of the summer and losing sense of rationality.

Or they aren't paying any attention to the model output.

Next week looks average temperature wise and the northern blocking is waning with some high pressure later, anything after that is pure speculation.

Edited by Mapantz
removed hidden quote
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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

This makes no sense...it's the pattern change that will shift the heat from that area, not the heat shifting that will break the pattern surely!

Changes are afoot that's for sure. It may not be exactly what we want to see yet but no one can deny that the charts are showing changes already.

True in a sense, but the heat over east is the reason the low pressure over us is generating so much rain

The low pressures we are having are not normal atlantic lows, they are forming in situ.

Edited by StormChaseUK
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The upper trough continues to dominate in the eastern Atlantic and this evening the surface low will run with the circulation to be just west of Stornoway by 0600 tomorrow. The bands of showery rain will become somewhat fragmented this evening as they also run around the circulation but by late evening rain from another frontal system will be effecting south west Wales and the SW tip of England. This will track north east through the rest of the night effecting Wales and much of central England with some heavy pulses over the former

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0470400.thumb.png.df0e7a72f6942d93e29ba316589745cc.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.bad786babbbd025f28947b4e2637440d.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.7c73c8e5137b08dcda57ee6f65dc940d.gif

precip_d02_12.thumb.png.5ab07c9d9fe0caa8442fdc4f4f0439d6.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.e29ee6fb8878573d3c610a3dfe345327.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.2cb02722c0c9659c540fc97c79ce38ee.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.c52116e4a23e854877c6b8a9c806ee1a.pngprecip_d02_26.thumb.png.6b78a75c1b3e0ff24faa3bd9d88f5ba6.png

Some rainfall and sunshine figures for this month

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
44 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

True in a sense, but the heat over east is the reason the low pressure over us is generating so much rain

The low pressures we are having are not normal atlantic lows, they are forming in situ.

Well at least we are not stuck in that hideous European heat this afternoon. 

_20190613_161001.JPG

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10 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Well at least we are not stuck in that hideous European heat this afternoon. 

_20190613_161001.JPG

Can I have some purple please....would love some 40c+! 

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