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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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What a finish!!..chalk and cheese compared to the Ecm 00z operational!!👍

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 Can't believe how quite it is guys, Considering we have had a good set of 12s..

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Cos we all suspect the models will show green snot parked over the UK again in the morning.....

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 Can't believe how quiet it is guys, Considering we have had a good set of 12s..

What interests me is how much better the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looked at the end compared to the earlier operational, just hoping tonight's mean keeps the improvements coming on the back of  the superb end to the 12z operational!!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Much better 12z runs. Not perfect, but a big improvement. I daresay some folk will extract the maximum amount of negativity from them though!

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Just now, Frosty. said:

What interests me is how much better the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looked compared to the earlier operational, just hoping tonight's mean keeps the improvements coming on the back of superb end to the 12z operational!!👍

Yes Karl much better, I'm quite surprised some can say after some decent runs, that they expect them to be rubbish again tomorrow. If we had never had a very warm spell before, I would understand..... Hopefully this will be built on. Which ever way you look at it, sooner or later we will get a very warm settled spell... Sods law... Even in a bad summer, we will still obtain a few. 👍

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Karl much better, I'm quite surprised some can say after some decent runs, that they expect them to be rubbish again tomorrow. If we had never had a very warm spell before, I would understand..... Hopefully this will be built on. Which ever way you look at it, sooner or later we will get a very warm settled spell... Sods law... Even in a bad summer, we will still obtain a few. 👍

I think the answer lies somewhere between 'once bitten, twice shy' and 'a never ending story'?:oldgrin:

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

I think the answer lies somewhere between 'once bitten, twice shy' and 'a never ending story'?:oldgrin:

Yes true Pete.. But firstly we have already had numerous warm spells since February, and on the back of last year's historic summer, confidence should still be quite high. If this was winter, I would expect it... But getting heat into the U.k is relatively simple, and very common. Unless you live in Manchester or something... 🤣Only joking... Good weather for all I hope. Expecting some decent ensembles from ECM

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Ens will be of interest but not defining..

Key timeframe 168....still unreliable.

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Posted (edited)

Tonight's day 10 Ecm 12z ensemble mean is not quite as good as the 00z but still  better than it looks this week, at least for southern uk!!👍

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Yes.. The 12z op was on the warmer side of things... Still an overall improvement though. It looks like the ens have switched with one another comparing both sets today.. First the op  from the 0z was disappointing, now the op on the 12s are much improved. 

But the mean if anything has dropped a tad. 

 

 

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graphe_ens3 (1).png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes.. The 12z op was on the warmer side of things... Still an overall improvement though. It looks like the ens have switched with one another comparing both sets today.. First the op  from the 0z was disappointing, now the op on the 12s are much improved. 

 

graphe_ens3.png

More of a small step than a giant leap in the right direction but for those of us (including me) hoping the second half of June will be better..a small step forward is better than backwards!!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Just now, Frosty. said:

More of a small step than a giant leap in the right direction but for those of hoping the second half of June will be better..a small step forward is better than backwards!!👍

Definitely Karl... A bit like my last post... It took more editing than a BBC documentary. 👍😉

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's day 10 Ecm 12z ensemble mean is not quite as good as the 00z but still  better than it looks this week, at least for southern uk!!👍

EDM1-240.gif

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Yes Frosty - seems like I am Bill Murray in Groundhog Day at the minute when looking at the models/mean on a daily basis. (I think this is why the thread has become much quieter - folk are a bit bored of it all)

Slight improvement for Southern parts but the rest of us are still sitting waiting for our starters to arrive.

I just can’t see a UK and Ireland wide hot spell this month - few days heat in Southern parts then few days average temps...rinse and repeat.

Time for a wee break from it all - be back in ten days to hopefully see a change to Summery weather for all! Until then another monsoon tomorrow here in the West of Scotland! 😂

Have a good week all! 

Edited by Mr Frost

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1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Yes Frosty - seems like I am Bill Murray in Groundhog Day at the minute when looking at the models/mean on a daily basis.

Slight improvement for Southern parts but the rest of us are still sitting waiting for our starters to arrive.

I just can’t see a UK and Ireland wide hot spell this month - few days heat in Southern parts then few days average temps...rinse and repeat.

Time for a wee break from it all - be back in ten days to hopefully see a change to Summery weather for all! Until then another monsoon tomorrow here in the West of Scotland! 😂

Have a good week all! 

If we end up with a NW/SE split Mr Frost... You may not be coming back at all.... 🤣 Hopefully something better for you soon. 

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Well....I've been away from looking at the models and this forum for the past 3 weeks or so. I haven't even checked the forecast on the TV or bbc. I've just been taking each day as it comes. This evening I thought I would take the plunge and have a look at the charts from 0z to 12z. Well.... I am gobsmacked at how utterly abysmal they are! I am utterly speechless. 2007 and 2009 carbon copy!!! Very little sign of hope on the horizon. What a shame, after last summer I was hoping that we might get a half decent shot this year but it seems perhaps at least the remainder or June is looking very autumnal. After that absymal, disgusting outlook, I wont be back until July at the earliest. Hopefully by then we might have some less autumnal looking weather. Time to put the heating back on! Chow

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Tomorrow will be interesting.

Summer lovers will be hoping EC has latched into something with its evolution,was only really an outlier at day 10 so fingers crossed the theme is still there at 8am!

 

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6 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Well....I've been away from looking at the models and this forum for the past 3 weeks or so. I haven't even checked the forecast on the TV or bbc. I've just been taking each day as it comes. This evening I thought I would take the plunge and have a look at the charts from 0z to 12z. Well.... I am gobsmacked at how utterly abysmal they are! I am utterly speechless. 2007 and 2009 carbon copy!!! Very little sign of hope on the horizon. What a shame, after last summer I was hoping that we might get a half decent shot this year but it seems perhaps at least the remainder or June is looking very autumnal. After that absymal, disgusting outlook, I wont be back until July at the earliest. Hopefully by then we might have some less autumnal looking weather. Time to put the heating back on! Chow

Try actually looking at the charts before posting! Remainder of June looking autumnal? On the 3rd?

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Tomorrow will be interesting.

Summer lovers will be hoping EC has latched into something with its evolution,was only really an outlier at day 10 so fingers crossed the theme is still there at 8am!

 

Well to be fair we’ve already been here a couple of times in the past 3-4days where various models have hinted at D10 improvements. We need those northerly heights to relax allowing the weekends low to shift north swiftly which in turn should allowing a north east extension of high pressure over the Uk.

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Reliable timeframe - oh dear very disappointing outlook for all, rain, showers and cool - not a good start to summer 2019.

Longer term - hints azores high will ridge NE in time.. a waiting game though.

I'm not feeling summer at the moment - for personal reasons I need this weekend to be dry - but I fear a washout.

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let's hope it's dry for you Damian, and for everyone else, I mean who likes rain

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Posted (edited)

Well I just browsed the models for first time in 48 hours and still looking like not much hope in any of the current output within the foreseeable range, I hope there' is a big change come mid-June but Im not making any bets for anything warmer in 10 days, the atmosphere isnt very stable so its unlikely any heat will last long and it will just break down into thunderstorms..So if heatwaves do turn up from the South they will probably be short lived 1 or 2 day affairs. . .  

Also seems like an awful lot of Northern blocking is going on too, not seen this much since 2012 so I wont be surprised if June comes out a total write off.


Meanwhile monthly CETs have also been taking a downward trend since Janauary with each month this year being above average but slumping so June will come out below average if that downward trend continues. 
 

Edited by 38.5*C

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Ev ening All .big storm for the weekend...?.......

h850t850eu-5.png

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13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ev ening All .big storm for the weekend...?.......

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Not often I vent frustration - but that low can do one.. terrible timing!

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3 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Perhaps this summer will be a long overdue back-loaded summer!

For the first time in years, I'm going away twice in August (unusual given the unnecessary cost), so I can guarantee that August will be the best in years lol.

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