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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

After the coming week, I'll take this: image.thumb.png.c83d799c8ef1aafcb1762e186f1b073b.png                                                                                                             image.thumb.png.46d62fe8f20042be30ae2743c84634fc.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

;)

h500slp.png

Nice! Pressure falling to the north, high pressure building in from the south and keeping the Atlantic at bay for a while at least.

Eventually the run ends with what would likely be a warm and thundery breakdown as unsettled weather pushes northwards

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

After the coming week, I'll take this: image.thumb.png.c83d799c8ef1aafcb1762e186f1b073b.png                                                                                                             image.thumb.png.46d62fe8f20042be30ae2743c84634fc.png

Aye, certainly looking a lot better from around next Sat, many members expectations too high on here, wanting 30 degrees and plumes every day, 18 degrees decent for time of year

gfs-0-180.png?12gfs-0-192.png?12

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Do my eyes deceive me.....or do we have a Greenland and arctic LOW pressure combo in place by day 10 on tonight’s gfs:

5920F1ED-5521-41F8-806B-14D2C03BC9D8.thumb.png.be984f04a59ba12d5c8f96ec82ed9f8e.png

Interesting where it sits in the ensembles....I’m going to guess top end or outlier.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

At least the FV3 ends better than it starts::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.dff7bfa65906127394be78b34660c41c.pngimage.thumb.png.6eab9db2c02f8a8cd120bc6179dc169b.png

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

I will take this week from hell if we get the 12z D9-16. We have been here before almost all year though. First with cold charts in winter now with warm ones in spring and summer. 

Edited by Snowy L
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I will take this week from hell if we get the 12z D9-16. We have been here before almost all year though. First with cold charts in winter now with warm ones in spring and summer. 

Difference is that it isn’t unreasonable to expect warm weather in June. Some of those winter charts which people chase are very unusual, even for Winter,

ECM rolling out now, let’s hope it continues the hope!

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Difference is that it isn’t unreasonable to expect warm weather in June. Some of those winter charts which people chase are very unusual, even for Winter,

ECM rolling out now, let’s hope it continues the hope!

Agree. Think we need to keep in mind what people here expect in summer vs winter. For us to achieve heavy snow and freezing temperatures in winter is much harder in the UK than it is to get a week of sunny weather with temps in the 20’s in summer. 

Edited by danm
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

ECM doing its best to improve things from 168. Building heights to our east, and lowering pressure over Greenland, Good signs, even if this run doesn’t end up delivering the goods.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

;)

h500slp.png

Can’t believe your trying justify a chart two weeks away when 5 days is massively FI.....

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM doing its best to improve things from 168. Building heights to our east, and lowering pressure over Greenland, Good signs, even if this run doesn’t end up delivering the goods.

Yes, all eyes to spotting the catalyst for positive change rather than an FI end product. Get heights to our north lowered then let summer fall into place 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Much better ecm too - by day ten Synoptics looking much more like what you’d expect in summer, with low pressure back up towards Iceland/Greenland, with the Azores high nosing in at times. Baby steps...

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Can’t believe your trying justify a chart two weeks away when 5 days is massively FI.....

No worse than those people who write the rest of the month off with no evidence, at least he has posted a chart to support his view.

ECM looking a lot better. Yes, it’s in near FI but the trends are positive. Positivity Chris!

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Getting very alarming for my area with the latest projected rainfall totals. Nearly 8 inches of rain in places over a 2-3 day period. Rivers such as the Trent, welland, Witham, and Nene would be at serious risk of flooding. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Getting very alarming for my area with the latest projected rainfall totals. Nearly 8 inches of rain in places over a 2-3 day period. Rivers such as the Trent, welland, Witham, and Nene would be at serious risk of flooding. 

I would be very surprised if we get anywhere near those totals.  Very wet, yes, but the levels being projected are just silly and unprecedented.

 

 

 

Edited by Djdazzle
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

100-150mm rain for central areas on ARPEGE this week - worrying 

Not the only one thats worried!!!!am pretty concerned for us here in the midlands and parts of Lincolnshire if the current 12z gfs is to go by!!very heavy rainfall all day tomorrow and into tuesday and then very heavy rainfall again all day wednesday into thursday!!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GEFS 12Z ensembles...Is that a 48-hour-long mini-FI, early this week?:shok:

image.thumb.png.5487845c9885809562273df57b713d38.pngimage.thumb.png.bcb53c1b06c83c05173820b6a4a3ce60.png 

image.thumb.png.c83935324ab16a2b26226dc7a9edcc91.pngimage.thumb.png.618bf998ea64d3c4e8e1aad9050015fc.png

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted
57 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A pleasing EC beyond day 7 as the model breaks down the Greeny block ..

OK its but one operational so usual caveats apply..

 

I think the encouraging thing is the the trends are also positive from the GFS from around next weekend, and have been for the last couple of runs. Also the UKMO shows the green snot finally leaving our shores towards the end of the week. It's a slow improvement but it's promising.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think the encouraging thing is the the trends are also positive from the GFS from around next weekend, and have been for the last couple of runs. Also the UKMO shows the green snot finally leaving our shores towards the end of the week. It's a slow improvement but it's promising.

Lets hope its not a false dawn!

The signs,albeit subtle, were there on the 00z run, we await the ens but i guess ultimately, all we can do is wait to see if the light at the end of the tunnel is not a mirage..

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Following the unpleasant surprise that was the 00z ECM, the 12z has performed a u-turn and produced the most promising charts since mid-April for a warm and mostly settled run of UK weather.

Reason being, it develops broadly low heights around Greenland. Nowhere near last June’s exceptionally low heights, but enough to be of use to us.

Usual caveats apply of course. It’s been a shame to see the settling down pushed back to Sunday night from Saturday noon over the past four runs. It really needs to hold its ground now!

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