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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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15 minutes ago, Why said:

Absolutely, I have no issues with those pointing out the dire output at the moment, it is pretty awful for the heat-seekers among us. If you really need the rain, and are a hayfever sufferer, there are some positives to take from the next 7-10 days mind you! 😄

Those who then write off close to three months of summer based on 2 weeks output though, well they need to pick up their toys, go to another thread and calm down. It contributes nothing and gets in the way of informative posts from @knocker, @Catacol and @Tamara recently, among others. Keep it up guys 🙂 

Well its pretty hard to be positive when run after run keeps churning out vile looking charts that look worser each day.

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Posted (edited)

Does anyone have historical data for poor June's leading to poor weather in July.

One thing is sure with the GFS it has flipped the coin frequently.  Bit of a lottery really could be 11C or 24C 5 days out. 

Actually June 1991 was awful but July 1991 very warm.

Edited by StormChaseUK

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4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Does anyone have historical data for poor June's leading to poor weather in July.

One thing is sure with the GFS it has flipped the coin frequently.  Bit of a lottery really could be 11C or 24C 5 days out. 

Yes, I pattern matched June rainfall at Bournemouth airport against the rest of summer. Of the 24 wet June’s with more than 60mm since 1957, only 1983 (about 12th wettest) had a decent backloaded summer. Not until you get down to 1990 & 2003 with about 50mm in June do you start getting into better summer territory. In summery wet June’s are nearly always followed by a poor remainder of summer. 

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54 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

00z and 06z:  Dreadful. I'll give this pattern two weeks to shift, if no change then I think its time to consider closing curtains on Summer 2019. Its normally the pattern that sets in around Solstice which will determine July and August. Sadly models are showing no real sign of a pattern change in the next 2 weeks. .

Nonsense once again. Ridiculous hyperbole with zero science to back it up. It's this kind of logic that I remember led people on here to proclaim around 2012 that it wasn't possible to record a hot summer in the UK again due to the patterns that seemed to be taking hold.

I take it you haven't actually looked properly at the 06z run? Just outside the reliable time frame it shows a substantial improvement with the trough drifting to our north, eventually settling over Iceland. Okay no heatwave, but it results in a big improvement for the southern half of the UK at least in a westerly flow. Temperatures would likely return to around the average for the time of year which is not bad at all in June.

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25 minutes ago, Why said:

Absolutely, I have no issues with those pointing out the dire output at the moment, it is pretty awful for the heat-seekers among us. If you really need the rain, and are a hayfever sufferer, there are some positives to take from the next 7-10 days mind you! 😄

Those who then write off close to three months of summer based on 2 weeks output though, well they need to pick up their toys, go to another thread and calm down. It contributes nothing and gets in the way of informative posts from @knocker, @Catacol and @Tamara recently, among others. Keep it up guys 🙂 

Logically this post makes a lot of sense. But there are two mitigating factors to consider before slating those with pessimism. Firstly we are in the unknown historically regarding climate change and rapid melting of the polar ice caps , which as I type are surely melting rapidly given this temperatures in Greenland/arctic currently. Therefore we cannot pattern match for this correctly. 

Secondly we've see this before, northern blocking and a powerful warm air advection into Greenland early in the summer and the famous 'snot' sitting over us for 2 months. Here in Ireland 2007,08,09,10,11 and famously awful 12 each had at least 2 months of this pattern. Therefore going from off these previous summers and despite my love of sun and warmth I'm not hopeful of a change anytime soon. But will continue to chase the carrot as always!

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Many posts don't belong in here (some nowhere) Let's please head swiftly back to discussing the Model Outputs. Pattern matching and general chat about Summer belong in the Summer discussion thread.

Many thanks, Please continue.

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51 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Better save some energy for later. There are those who subscribe to the stratosphere opening new season as it closed the last.This post strong SSW/final warming pattern has been seen before (around last solar minimum) If pattern holds, late autumn and early winter may be of interest. 

Last time was 2010 I believe? 😏

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Posted (edited)

Being as some are writing of June, I thought I would take a look at July on the CFS, the weather overall looks better, and we get more in the way of flirtations with the warmer conditions... High pressure looks to gain more traction at times... But I can't help notice how heights stay pretty high over Greenland throughout!! Also worth noting, just look at how the serious heat gets locked in over Central and Eastern Russia, the low countries and Greece for instance. 

cfsnh-2-582.png

cfsnh-2-624.png

cfsnh-2-654.png

cfsnh-2-684.png

cfsnh-2-750.png

cfsnh-2-786.png

cfsnh-2-822.png

cfsnh-2-852.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

Does anyone have historical data for poor June's leading to poor weather in July.

1954, 1956, 1972, 1980, 1998, 2007, 2012

All had bad Junes. None had a good July or August. The Augusts of 1998 and 2012 were average and by far the best summer months of all those years.

Edited by B87

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

Does anyone have historical data for poor June's leading to poor weather in July.

One thing is sure with the GFS it has flipped the coin frequently.  Bit of a lottery really could be 11C or 24C 5 days out. 

Actually June 1991 was awful but July 1991 very warm.

Edit: read the first line wrong.

Edited by MP-R

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Posted (edited)

And yet again the thread is being derailed by making pointless comparisons with previous years! Like I said the other day.... Yesterday is history .... Tomorrow is a mystery... 🙄

Edited by Mattwolves

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

And yet again the thread is being derailed by making pointless comparisons with previous years! Like I said the other day.... Yesterday is history .... Tomorrow is a mystery... 🙄

I was just going to make the very same point, Matt! What on earth have 1987,1996, 2010, 2012...got to do with 2019? Pattern-matching doesn't work, at the best of times!🤪:oldgrin:

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56 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Being as some are writing of June, I thought I would take a look at July on the CFS, the weather overall looks better, and we get more in the way of flirtations with the warmer conditions... High pressure looks to gain more traction at times... But I can't help notice how heights stay pretty high over Greenland throughout!! Also worth noting, just look at how the serious heat gets locked in over Central and Eastern Russia, the low countries and Greece for instance. 

cfsnh-2-582.png

cfsnh-2-624.png

cfsnh-2-654.png

cfsnh-2-684.png

cfsnh-2-750.png

cfsnh-2-786.png

cfsnh-2-822.png

cfsnh-2-852.png

Well I've been looking at the NAO index and its showing a trend towards positive so you might be right about July being a improved month. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

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Some pretty concerning rainfall totals being shown for the upcoming week

image.thumb.png.d2cd8fdad39fd5af79cd762c0e1c8231.pngimage.thumb.png.c7db2182b9bf62fe89d127d8fd247dde.png 

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I have a feeling the 12z will throw some warmer curveballs 

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9 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Some pretty concerning rainfall totals being shown for the upcoming week

image.thumb.png.d2cd8fdad39fd5af79cd762c0e1c8231.pngimage.thumb.png.c7db2182b9bf62fe89d127d8fd247dde.png 

They're usually quite exaggerated (like snow depth charts in winter) but even if you halve those larger totals many are in for a very wet week. Not surprised to see warnings out.

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NetWx-MR take of rainfall totals and where/intensity by Tuesday.

249421470_viewimage-2019-06-09T164221_711.thumb.png.b7cd472d7b0daa65dd496b56b8fc2082.png515186521_viewimage-2019-06-09T164306_407.thumb.png.b573d9c3630eed727f0f441c4f3a9e01.png642131471_viewimage-2019-06-09T164329_694.thumb.png.0c76e9947df19732165f53628fedcc1d.png

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32 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Some pretty concerning rainfall totals being shown for the upcoming week

image.thumb.png.d2cd8fdad39fd5af79cd762c0e1c8231.pngimage.thumb.png.c7db2182b9bf62fe89d127d8fd247dde.png 

Some crazy amounts of rain being shown across the C/N Midlands in the immediate term on the 12z GFS.

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20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some crazy amounts of rain being shown across the C/N Midlands in the immediate term on the 12z GFS.

Yep, GFS just as intense

 image.thumb.png.f065e0a46d748b2344c411512b2b8e5c.png

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Wow- this week looks diabolical . The latest GFS has serious rainfall across areas that don't always get a huge amount. It has a 2007 look to it with similar amounts to the event that caused massive flooding across the Sheffield / Hull area but perhaps a focus further south. 

Obviously we have had a drier period prior to this than in 2007 but not sure it makes a huge difference if you end up with 100+ MM over 48-72 hours 

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Anywhere N of Manchester looks like it may escape the worst of the rain based on most recent modelling

 

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Back to waiting for Day 9: image.thumb.png.9d06739c283ad562a23a0906ea026540.pngimage.thumb.png.1c7c88119e71353471527aaf310ee903.png:oldgrin:

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1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

I have a feeling the 12z will throw some warmer curveballs 

;)

h500slp.png

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