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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The problem you’ve got is that the very weather pattern that has been giving Eastern Europe all this hot weather is why it’s been so cool and unsettled here. Greenland blocking tends to drive trough of in our neck of the woods while blowing up a big ridge to the east. There aren’t any signs at all of this reversing like in 2018 sadly. Odd days here and there may get a brief high pressure incursion, but a pattern reversal to give long lasting dry and hot weather like 2018 just isn’t there this month.

Yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A very poor set of models again today for anyone wanting any warmth in the foreseeable, everything set up wrongly... northern blocking, long wave trough stuck over the UK, all the heat bottled up top our east.. no quick exit out of this pattern.

Indeed some long drawn north easterlies being shown middle of next week, airstream all the way from north of russia!

We may see a change as we head into the latter part of the month, but for now, more of the same, predominantly cool, something more settled possibly further north west (for a change!), showery elsewhere. Poor for June.

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

Pattern locked in for a real hot summer for the arctic circle/ Finland. Incredible temperatures looking at the models all the way to end of the run. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

GFS 18z is out, nothing much to go on just the same trough lingering in our direction from start to finish while big heat continuously gets pumped into continental Europe..  Seems we're not far from the heat so it should only take a few minor adjustments to the pattern and we could tap into it, but for now I suppose we'll just have to wait patiently for any change to appear within a reliable timeframe now the models have locked into this trough start to finish.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

That really is a staggering Greenland HP on the ICON 0z

image.thumb.png.524fbcfa2c79cbd93ef3d3f5b255c714.png

UKMO too

image.thumb.png.331d6ca2e33368ccd9e3a2e662bf053b.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - the medium term evolution has been exercising a few minds of late although despite the expected turbulence of the next few days the EPS has remained in the same ball park, albeit with a touch more amplification. So perhaps we are looking at a tad more settled with a N/S split in reverse to normal

10-15.thumb.png.00296c9e1e3644aca8fd8524070cfbd5.png7-12.thumb.png.635c1d455a39faea96776dbce03efe7f.png

The NH 500mb profile and the North atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300UTC UK chart

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9952000.thumb.png.fc2f75a6c41cea471cdbccba4b293869.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.8efeaedbddd46bd39673d7f123360b0b.gif03.thumb.gif.cd45355aca18c24100c97eba753f0dc1.gif

The low will continue to fill and track into the North Sea today and the band of rain, still containing some heavy pulses, associated with the occlusion wrapped around it, will do likewise This will be followed by frequent showers, mainly in the west and north although some are still likely in the south west in the continuing blustery wind. The showers will pep up a tad as another occlusion slips down behind the original. Quite a cool day with temps below average

PPVE89.thumb.gif.5320192450fb7001885f488f50091486.gif1963070301_maxsat.thumb.png.8e71c1dd0252d8eb5ad02e555b9f2e11.pngprecip_d02_13.thumb.png.a6fc505d789d488d023eed5738baa3c2.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.f7cce287c7d4c61558608bf44d745e2b.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.74c5bcf44def72bbf572649e21efcabe.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.850dd070f52f564bd8650c786f19da11.pngprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.50ea8661bd7391df5ce5b3e87c97a96b.png

With the low and fronts now well clear a mainly clear night with just a few showers lingering in the north and west.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.7f4ead6a49eda615941497cfc86f96e1.gifprecip_d02_35.thumb.png.f77ce5d2293e13a6adad40cd611a8c0a.png

Sunday will be a much better day with the wind abating but still a fair few showers around, particularly in the north west, courtesy of a shallow and trough adjacent to Ireland. They will pep up somewhat in central/southern England during the afternoon.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.0aa022617d502228f81eb234291536a7.gif1672842510_maxsu.thumb.png.5147572d0e300f4dba1e6a746d5534c7.pngprecip_d02_40.thumb.png.945577f04931eefefae80fd24ddebb65.pngprecip_d02_44.thumb.png.171953e25505de9c09a506a4ad63dcb9.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.b73d0eb173124f5052d44c4ef6a2e592.png

Little change over Sunday night and through Monday so a sunshine and heavy showers day but amplification is well underway upstream

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0168000.thumb.png.b2ba6f486a63d1a228d424dc3d162d9a.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.924c1304b819b0f97cee0d1319087bd9.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.cdf06585dd74f10a03f2df22e679747b.gif

452080650_rainmon.thumb.png.a1bee06903db34e35edd239132b4223b.png524585973_maxmon.thumb.png.120ba8e28d9db03ae2de18888d1dc9d4.png

Amplification continues apace over Tuesday and Wednesday squeezing the ridge and establishing a high cell to the north west and low pressure to the south of the UK. This initiates a brisk north easterly wind and an occlusion associated with the low to the south tracks north west and thus rain spreading north over the two days, both of which will be on the cool side with temps below average, particularly in England.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0254400.thumb.png.3ed7b2b4c71b6c1d1cee6dd8f592658b.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0340800.thumb.png.2d09adb64daad9725c4f954be60c0e54.png

PPVM89.thumb.gif.7d54a36b513624bb9948699f254c70a9.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.6ee240646b78ef8430780bec1992fb28.gif

1214113910_raintues.thumb.png.7493175579c93a2c97c548d87366a0b1.png1322336434_rainwed.thumb.png.694854e0a5fc98e1b196b3f8cbdf778f.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Over the next five days the gfs has the subtropical high zones amplifying and establishing a strong high cell over northern Greenland whilst further establishing the upper lows in the east and west Atlantic. Not good news as this portends a continuation of unsettled weather with temps below average.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0816000.thumb.png.1708d2d1b5df3b18a8e248db68008223.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0751200.thumb.png.bf4991107cf7e1439545984c257c4002.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS this morning shows much warmer/settled conditions establishing towards the longest day..

2002596412_viewimage-2019-06-08T072629_768.thumb.png.ecfedb49ebc7d8092ffb49dcf21e0583.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z operational is a trough magnet until mid June but then the whole landscape changes as summer arrives with high pressure and much warmer conditions..hopefully!!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Through Thurs > Sat the ecm has the surface low drifting west to be west of Ireland thus remaining unsettled with temps below average from the UK down over western France and into Iberia whilst initiating strong WAA into central Europe

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0427200.thumb.png.2b94967251e2b40151fc3edfcb387e13.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0513600.thumb.png.48231d8a2ef5a7853d664fa845375b36.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0600000.thumb.png.51395a1ec11e3c51cd1f0196b8ecb60f.png

The gfs ten day rainfall for what it's worth

gfs-uk-total_precip_inch-0816000.thumb.png.49a47778787c5af6731591c8ccd8b96e.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Big improvements this morning in the longer term it seems, interesting how the ECM op has stuck to its guns from the 12z run yesterday evening, with the trough eventually setting up to our west to allow a pressure build from the south and east.

The GFS also shows the trough moving away from the UK in FI allowing high pressure to move over us. Even though it's unlikely to pan out this way, it gives us a good idea of how this pattern could break more easily than a lot of people have been suggesting. This could potentially happen within a few days.

Funny how previous awful summers skew people's perceptions. Since 2007 people on here have tended to be extremely pessimistic in summer when there's any sign of northern blocking. There is nothing to suggest it will persist through the whole summer. And even if it does, it's not necessarily a deal-breaker for the entire summer.

What a sensible post. People forget how patterns can just change within a few days.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
20 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

What a sensible post. People forget how patterns can just change within a few days.

............. or can get stuck in the same repeating pattern. thats what gave us last years heatwave, and what produced the washout summers 07,12.

the trend over the last week or so has been for a gradual deterioration. what was first expected to be a short lived unsettled blip has gradually got worse until the outputs this morning are about as bad as you can get for early/mid june .

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

............. or can get stuck in the same repeating pattern. thats what gave us last years heatwave, and what produced the washout summers 07,12.

the trend over the last week or so has been for a gradual deterioration. what was first expected to be a short lived unsettled blip has gradually got worse until the outputs this morning are about as bad as you can get for early/mid june .

Try actually looking at the outputs before posting. Yes, there are two sides to the argument but Scorcher’s post merely shaped the other option.

There is nothing to suggest that this pattern will be a long term lock in. The ECM this morning is an improvement, so not sure where you get the “charts are the worse they’ve been” idea from.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Feel like having a retreat from the models. Just like in Winter, it’s just becoming exhausting chasing particular setups. While I don’t mind unsettled weather in Summer if it’s in the form of high-quality showers and thunderstorms, think I’ve burnt myself out going after warmer, High Pressure dominated outlooks on both the models and some of the anomaly/mean charts.

I do have faith things will still improve for the warm and settled weather enthusiasts on here (and also, a typical Summer in the U.K isn’t always filled with settled and very warm spells), but just need a break from it as it’s becoming kinda stressful. I suppose for anyone else feeling the same way, maybe some space from the models might do some good! 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

............. or can get stuck in the same repeating pattern. thats what gave us last years heatwave, and what produced the washout summers 07,12.

the trend over the last week or so has been for a gradual deterioration. what was first expected to be a short lived unsettled blip has gradually got worse until the outputs this morning are about as bad as you can get for early/mid june .

It can get stuck, but the two summers you referenced were exceptionally poor and unusual (just as last summers prolonged heat was unusual). Even 2012 had it’s better spells - end of July and much of August was good for some. 

A repeat of those two summers is unlikely simply because it is rare, just as a repeat of last summer would be unlikely. 

As mentioned before, we need to write off the next 6/7 days and keep looking for signs of improvement. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

00Z at least ends on a brighter note; but, as it's all after Day 10, I'm not going to get excited just yet ...we have been there before:

image.thumb.png.a9fd341eb3fc4d0c8e7e878ebad0f715.pngimage.thumb.png.81a98f1daac5bf68e2a2050cd031f0c2.png 

 

But, the FV3 doesn't even do that!

image.thumb.png.2bf9b51e6d72413fae47c267bc3c5bd2.pngimage.thumb.png.cd997fbf2fb23325390412984705717b.png

 

And the GFS op is, in stark contrast to yesterday's runs, a warm outlier:

image.thumb.png.536f2a8b6080f4aba9a4d3068ee3933e.pngimage.thumb.png.722639600f847372730cc7cd8eaf811d.png 

image.thumb.png.9b4f2673310608b6704b864c79c208b9.pngimage.thumb.png.8da59131b3610f37956c4599a64555f4.png

So yes, things could improve (they could hardly get much worse!) but could just as easily stay stuck as they are. Especially when one concentrates mostly, as I do, on NWPs...?:oldsmile:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Hope of a change just after mid month resurfaces this morning-

Hopefully not a false dawn, EC pointing to improvements by day 8 onwards..

image.thumb.png.24a3712b8d9d3535c4e96905099bb2bd.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
42 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Try actually looking at the outputs before posting. Yes, there are two sides to the argument but Scorcher’s post merely shaped the other option.

There is nothing to suggest that this pattern will be a long term lock in. The ECM this morning is an improvement, so not sure where you get the “charts are the worse they’ve been” idea from.

i have seen the outputs thank you very much, and i stand by the charge that for this week at least they are about as bad as they can get for this time of the year. 

the 'improvements' the ecm and gfs are suggesting for ten days time are of course in fi, and the synoptic patterns expected before then is anything but safe. the problem for me, as i see it, is that theres been an 'improvement' in that timeframe for a week or more now. this unsettled week was only supposed to be a short break from the otherwise rather settled outlook and the 'improvements' were supposed to be taking place now.

the trend has been, is, one of prolonging the unsettled, cool, wet conditions whilst the 'improvements' remain in fi. and these 'improvements' dont (yet) have anomaly support and until they do, ill not be pinning too many hopes on them.

 

unsettled.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

00z UKMO is again showing some extremely high rainfall totals by D6 with up to 150mm locally in England and Wales

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019060800_144_18_157.thumb.png.6af5c4a01f0deb0248a7a844e60e8480.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The new GFS is due to go live on Wednesday 12th June one major change is t240 to t384 where the updates will be at 3 hourly intervals instead of the current 12hr this will mean each GFS run will take around 20 minutes longer to update from t240 to the end than it currently does

Quote

The current operational GFS V14 is run at a coarser horizontal resolution beyond forecast hour 240; GFS V15 will run at a uniform, high resolution throughout the entire forecast length up to 384 hours. As a result, the delivery of all GFS products after 240 hours of forecast will be delayed. The last products at forecast hour 384 will be delayed by up to 20 minutes.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Big improvements this morning in the longer term it seems, interesting how the ECM op has stuck to its guns from the 12z run yesterday evening, with the trough eventually setting up to our west to allow a pressure build from the south and east.

The GFS also shows the trough moving away from the UK in FI allowing high pressure to move over us. Even though it's unlikely to pan out this way, it gives us a good idea of how this pattern could break more easily than a lot of people have been suggesting. This could potentially happen within a few days.

Funny how previous awful summers skew people's perceptions. Since 2007 people on here have tended to be extremely pessimistic in summer when there's any sign of northern blocking. There is nothing to suggest it will persist through the whole summer. And even if it does, it's not necessarily a deal-breaker for the entire summer.

definitely better 00Z's, kinda following on from yesterdays 12Z EC, peoples expectations are miles too high for early to mid June, tomorrow looking good 17 degrees and dry, decent day for time of year

as SS posted in CET thread, this June is above average so far

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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The new GFS is due to go live on Wednesday 12th June one major change is t240 to t384 where the updates will be at 3 hourly intervals instead of the current 12hr this will mean each GFS run will take around 20 minutes longer to update from t240 to the end than it currently does

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

Will the hourly timeframe GFS forecast still be available or is only the original 3hr one on the new model? 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Will the hourly timeframe GFS forecast still be available or is only the original 3hr one on the new model? 

I don't fully understand all of the text within the pdf so it might be explained within that somewhere with regards to the hourly updates to t120 

If not we'll just have to wait and see Wednesday brings when it rolls out

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The models show another week of dross but mid June could be the turning point according to the Gfs / Ecm 00z ops with a more summery second half of the month or at least containing some high pressure and warmth, particularly for southern uk..fingers crossed all of the uk enjoys some sustained fine and warm weather before June is over!

Edited by Frosty.
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