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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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The only good news is that the weather couldn’t be as bad as the models are suggesting. No idea what’s allowing to produce charts like this. The algorithms need a serious looking into. They are making a 1 in 200 year bad summer like 2007 look good!

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear...It ain't getting much better, is it? :unknw:

image.thumb.png.1c46262209490fed7d054f7ff70b5561.pngimage.thumb.png.cefe7aa9c952310d794096dfc8173159.png 

not for you members that like rain, but that chart looks decent, and at least it will be mild

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear...It ain't getting much better, is it? :unknw:

image.thumb.png.1c46262209490fed7d054f7ff70b5561.pngimage.thumb.png.cefe7aa9c952310d794096dfc8173159.png 

That's much too unpleasant even for me.  We need rain here (not much in South Norfolk today) but we don't need things that cold.

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Another set of truly dreadful 12z runs - if anything getting worse by the day now. We are well and truly stuck in under the trough now, so it will just swirl around the UK dumping loads of rain as it does so. Even the decent FI charts have vanished, and all models just show unsettled and cool weather dominating from now until day 10-15.

Can anyone with a greater knowledge base than me point to anything that would help get us out of this rut?? 

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Another set of truly dreadful 12z runs - if anything getting worse by the day now. We are well and truly stuck in under the trough now, so it will just swirl around the UK dumping loads of rain as it does so. Even the decent FI charts have vanished, and all models just show unsettled and cool weather dominating from now until day 10-15.

Can anyone with a greater knowledge base than me point to anything that would help get us out of this rut?? 

Don’t trust the charts past 96. You can easily snap out of these setups.

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GFS continues to churn out a real crapathon with a trough that is configured so badly that its just so stuck & sandwiched between two areas of HP. Its like it knows where it is and its saying "I'm sorry for giving you no rain last summer so here is the rain I owe you, plus I'll give you this years worth and heres some extra rain to compensate the delay, enjoy".  

 

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Dont post much in the summer but thought i would drop in to see whats happening!gota say the charts are pretty bad at the moment for the forseeable future!if its not persistant rain then it shall be in the form of heavy showers!another thing ive noticed in the last few weeks is the ensembles promising a lot of high pressure after day 6 but only to vanish come closer to the time!!!that is most certainly not a good sign cos i have witnessed over the years how stubborn this pattern could be to shift!!!patience is key now!!

Edited by shaky

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24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

FV3 doesn't offer much, either: image.thumb.png.a7382e3345136763836d7ab2abd61ffa.pngimage.thumb.png.e4fae10d864dbefd675a8840289f6992.png

What I've learned from the FV3 is to expect nothing and then you won't be disappointed.👍

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I think some of our esteemed members have missed the CWC background signal .. Essentially the volume of rain increases in proportion to the volume of cricket matches.. With cricket every day there can be no doubt of rain records broken 

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Well, there is a morsel of not-quite-so-bad news in the 12Z ensembles: the op run is very much on the cold side of the pack::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.208871021ba143650f9d0745760dcd75.pngimage.thumb.png.2c6be026439d1adc030ac7677228597b.png 

 

image.thumb.png.78d91157b2686c151e36a6c2dbe20293.pngimage.thumb.png.40caab385be7c2795c388bfb13624165.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Another set of truly dreadful 12z runs - if anything getting worse by the day now. We are well and truly stuck in under the trough now, so it will just swirl around the UK dumping loads of rain as it does so. Even the decent FI charts have vanished, and all models just show unsettled and cool weather dominating from now until day 10-15.

Can anyone with a greater knowledge base than me point to anything that would help get us out of this rut?? 

In my experience, things aren’t always as bad as they seem. We’re stuck in a rut and the models aren’t showing a way out of this yet. However, I’ve witnessed pattern changes develop in the model output quite suddenly on numerous occasions. The next 6 to 7 days are nailed on as cool and unsettled. The 7-15 day timeframe is showing the same, but is way out in FI

My only advice would be to not assume the charts post day 7 will verify or be as bad as is currently being modelled. 

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A quick glance at the middle next week with the ecm

Tuesday has quite strong amplification with the surface low to the south/south east and a front tracking NW over the country. So quite wet over the Southern half with temps a tad below average in the north easterly wind

Wednesday not a lot of change but the front a little further north

By Thursday the energy flows have created a high cell west of Iceland and a surface low now dominates the UK with rain from the front over Scotland and showers elsewhere. Regional variations of the temp around average.

Not much change by Friday but the center of the quite shallow surface low is now west of Ireland

Of course the detail subject to change

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0254400.thumb.png.4bd0564075dddf8c66943127b4497bf9.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0340800.thumb.png.951f20d86f38cb9ff496dbabcb17f383.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0427200.thumb.png.f5052f462d85b86d7c464e5eaa89c78b.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Purely an observation but the ecm NH chart at T192 is quite bazaar.

It phases the UK trough to and intense upper low to the west creating positively tilted trough across the Atlantic whilst the Bermuda high amplifies towards Greenland. Also strong Arctic blocking and an intense TPV northern Russia

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-0600000.thumb.png.2bf5d4fc1ece2105b8810309ccf390e0.png

 

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That's got to be some of the direst output Ive seen today since last winters farcical attempt at winter charts..... An aussie would simply say...... Stroooottthhhhhh!! So when I saw the end of the ECM all be it fi, I thought come on folks...... One more chase..... 😉

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

giphy.gif

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

That's got to be some of the direst output Ive seen today since last winters farcical attempt at winter charts..... An aussie would simply say...... Stroooottthhhhhh!! So when I saw the end of the ECM all be it fi, I thought come on folks...... One more chase..... 😉

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

giphy.gif

Yeah I bet it would be wonderful for anyone who lives in wales or King’s Lynn 😄

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ECM showing a best case scenario tonight - even with northern blocking you can still end up in the right spot in the UK, it’s just odds against. All dependent of the trough being pulled far enough back out into the Atlantic to allow a pressure rise in our locale.

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46 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's got to be some of the direst output Ive seen today since last winters farcical attempt at winter charts..... An aussie would simply say...... Stroooottthhhhhh!! So when I saw the end of the ECM all be it fi, I thought come on folks...... One more chase..... 😉

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

giphy.gif

Would build heat further east again.  Today Finland broke records, nearly 33C

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Gents, I was merely trying to find a positive. That's the best chart I've seen all day. It could come to nothing... It could be the start of something! It could build the heat to far East... It could build it to far West... Hell... It could end up sending it to the Arctic, such is our luck currently😉 but I thought... Let's get the boys and gals of netweather all ready for a proper summer charge. Patience good folk... Our turn will come... That I have trust! And after putting all that effort into that post.. I just find out the op was a warm outlier.... I don't no why I bother.... 🤣

graphe_ens3 (4).png

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17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Gents, I was merely trying to find a positive. That's the best chart I've seen all day. It could come to nothing... It could be the start of something! It could build the heat to far East... It could build it to far West... Hell... It could end up sending it to the Arctic, such is our luck currently😉 but I thought... Let's get the boys and gals of netweather all ready for a proper summer charge. Patience good folk... Our turn will come... That I have trust! And after putting all that effort into that post.. I just find out the op was a warm outlier.... I don't no why I bother.... 🤣

graphe_ens3 (4).png

really not surprised though about the warm outlier, too good to be true really the op

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With looking at the charts in the last weeks or so I think if we do get some high pressure in it will probably stay for a while. This has happened over Eastern Europe the last few weeks its just getting the right set up to get that outcome. Ecm at day 9/10 shows a high building north. Is this gonna be the high that sets us up for a while or a few days. We will just have to wait and see. We have to go thru the bad to get the good. That's the story in life most of the time maybe that's how it works in the weather too. I no its a long way off still but I for sure am looking forward to the chase. Chin. Up hot weather seeker's like me. Its coming. Night all. 

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Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

With looking at the charts in the last weeks or so I think if we do get some high pressure in it will probably stay for a while. This has happened over Eastern Europe the last few weeks its just getting the right set up to get that outcome. Ecm at day 9/10 shows a high building north. Is this gonna be the high that sets us up for a while or a few days. We will just have to wait and see. We have to go thru the bad to get the good. That's the story in life most of the time maybe that's how it works in the weather too. I no its a long way off still but I for sure am looking forward to the chase. Chin. Up hot weather seeker's like me. Its coming. Night all. 

The problem you’ve got is that the very weather pattern that has been giving Eastern Europe all this hot weather is why it’s been so cool and unsettled here. Greenland blocking tends to drive trough of in our neck of the woods while blowing up a big ridge to the east. There aren’t any signs at all of this reversing like in 2018 sadly. Odd days here and there may get a brief high pressure incursion, but a pattern reversal to give long lasting dry and hot weather like 2018 just isn’t there this month.

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