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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just look at that heat in France though..epic!!!!👍🔥

Yep, and with a SE wind it’s coming our way Fri / Sat.

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17 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Ensembles solid on +20c 850's for 2/3 days towards the end of this week.

 Add strong summer sunshine and somewhere in South should reach at least 34c!  😎

They aren't though unfortunately and looking at how they compare to just 3 days ago sums up the overall picture.

image.thumb.png.ffa7211bac8492f69af8f5c813d90bf7.pngimage.thumb.png.07da362cb94c1d964d0eafa24d04cfbd.png

The current OP is well below what the coolest ensemble member was predicting 3 days ago for the same time!!

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Taking the Gem 0z..the plume looks great eye candy but the 2m temps are nothing special..certainly not ramp worthy!!..but in France..what a scorcher!!👍🔥..

gem-1-108.png

gem-1-132.png

gem-9-132.png

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14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just look at that heat in France though..epic!!!!👍🔥

 

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yep, and with a SE wind it’s coming our way Fri / Sat.

 

With a few days still to go, it's definitely possible that a slight change in wind direction could lead to widespread mid 30s (even upper 30s) in the south of the UK.

gfs01.thumb.png.16b8c844f90ae4159b675c5af8c8131b.png

gfs03.thumb.png.732f2e5329ae0668e1ac6dc2af04d2ff.png

It seems like the June Paris maximum temperature record of 37.6 degrees will probably be broken Thurs - Sat.

Edited by Stabilo19

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I wonder if temps are being undercooked by NWP for western areas?

No issues west of the pennines from north sea hair for starters!

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I wonder if temps are being undercooked by NWP for western areas?

No issues west of the pennines from north sea hair for starters!

As Paul says above, forecasting 2m temps could be quite hairy?:oldgrin:

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8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

They aren't though unfortunately and looking at how they compare to just 3 days ago sums up the overall picture.

image.thumb.png.ffa7211bac8492f69af8f5c813d90bf7.pngimage.thumb.png.07da362cb94c1d964d0eafa24d04cfbd.png

The current OP is well below what the coolest ensemble member was predicting 3 days ago for the same time!!

Always the way with model watching in complex situations.....don’t take a forecast at day 6 and expect it to happen. I’m not surprised at all we’ve seen a lot of changes. When this first started unraveling it appeared it would be washed away by Friday.....now it could be fri/sat/sun end up hottest of all.

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Also - someone else may be able to help me here - is this unprecedented in that we have the very hot uppers but also a North Sea flow? Has this happened before? I can’t really remember any other time that very hot 850s have wafted up and not led to baking weather. Could it be the models are really struggling to compute all of the conflicting air masses to give an accurate temperature?

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Also - someone else may be able to help me here - is this unprecedented in that we have the very hot uppers but also a North Sea flow? Has this happened before? I can’t really remember any other time that very hot 850s have wafted up and not led to baking weather. Could it be the models are really struggling to compute all of the conflicting air masses to give an accurate temperature?

It’s upper level divergence caused by the trough filling after it has pumped warm air north (trough fills, surface flow backs easterly but because the trough has filled there is not much to force a quick change in the residual upper flow).

Quite rare.

Edited by summer blizzard

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36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I wonder if temps are being undercooked by NWP for western areas?

No issues west of the pennines from north sea hair for starters!

I expect areas further west will be a cut above 😜 temperature-wise compared to eastern areas. 

Wondering how we'll get on here in Sheffield given we are well inland but also the 'wrong' side of the Pennines in this setup.

A fascinating week-ahead to come though! You know it's unusual when you start a plume with a thundery breakdown 😅

Edited by Onding
spelelelling

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Indeed - went to San Francisco a couple of years ago in August and temperatures maxed at about 21c even with 850s above 20c with the onshore flow. You only had to go 15-20 miles inland though and it was 30c+ again. For example, today in sfo is forecast to be 22c.....Walnut Creek down to road will be 33c. Hopefully the North Sea clag doesn’t push too far inland and ruin a potentially historic spell. The hot days seem to be getting pushed back more and more though, so to start with it looked like midweek would be the furnace, now perhaps fri/sat and maybe even Sunday when the North Sea Dow finally gets cut off.

Yes but San Fran is on the coast. Don’t think any of us are doubting that with an onshore breeze from the North Sea that places on the east coast will be much cooler, but further inland it should be much hotter. Just as you described in California. 

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4 minutes ago, danm said:

Yes but San Fran is on the coast. Don’t think any of us are doubting that with an onshore breeze from the North Sea that places on the east coast will be much cooler, but further inland it should be much hotter. Just as you described in California. 

Yeah I get that - but look at the 6z gfs run for Thursday. 850s over 20c again and max temps predicted everywhere are 20-23c, east to west. It just doesn’t add up at all. Think I’ll go with the met and assume low 30s.

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13 minutes ago, uksnowaffects said:

1016645807_ukmaxtemp(7).thumb.png.934c7c23c2894a7b8f1c58a7ab2cc325.pnggfs 6z 29c for Tuesday 🔥

30 possibly 31 as gfs underestimates by couple of degrees if the sun is out

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2 minutes ago, clark3r said:

30 possibly 31 as gfs underestimates by couple of degrees if the sun is out

Wow! Just 14°c here on Anglesey 😳

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yeah I get that - but look at the 6z gfs run for Thursday. 850s over 20c again and max temps predicted everywhere are 20-23c, east to west. It just doesn’t add up at all. Think I’ll go with the met and assume low 30s.

Take a look at the skew-t, it may give you a reason why?

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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Take a look at the skew-t, it may give you a reason why?

True, but that doesn’t explain why the METO forecast is so at odds with the GFS model.

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Interestingly the GFS 06z instead of moving towards the ECM longevity of higher uppers, it in fact curtails the warmer upper air 12 hours earlier. Also the max temps even more subdued than the 0z run! Friday struggling to max at 23c in the SE:

126-582UK.thumb.gif.9cc9e7b3d3e747ce584b3b61389fc222.gif

On Saturday is the peak of the plume:

150-582UK.thumb.gif.10364ae0e72ea88f05f2cd2d62369f88.gif

Less than Tuesday when the uppers are lower?

Edited by IDO

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

True, but that doesn’t explain why the METO forecast is so at odds with the GFS model.

I'll discuss that in the relevant thread if you would like to do that?

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T+171 and the hot, sticky nights should be replaced with warm, slightly less-sticky nights?

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Has anyone been on null school? You can look at all sorts of live data on there. A handy one being the temp/850 you can clearly see a lot of heat being pumped up from North Africa all ready but unfortunately at the surface things are coming from the east which ain’t good!! As could really have an impact on ground temps.Anyway theres some plus 19 uppers and above just to our south advecting  our way so let’s just be patient next week and not get hung up on each run. Things will get hot next week but how hot and how stormy is yet to be determined until we reach T3/T12 as these setups are really hard to predict 

6B4E5E2C-1412-4E02-937C-1AD9C5FF04EF.png

7CF897E7-0E10-4CE8-985A-B5C80BD1F882.png

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This thread is now locked, new one open here:

 

Edited by Paul

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