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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are barely average. I think the Gfs needs another revamp

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Just now, Leo97t said:

Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are barely average. I think the Gfs needs another revamp

Well, it was the first model to pick up on the trend for outrageous uppers and most believed it had lost the plot!

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2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are barely average. I think the Gfs needs another revamp

Barely average for where exactly?

This adds nothing helpful to the discussion.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Barely average for where exactly?

This adds nothing helpful to the discussion.

The raw temperatures are being shown in the low to mid 20s across southern England throughout the week despite uppers into the 20s

Edited by Mapantz

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Last 4 GFS runs for midnight Thursday.

image.thumb.png.9c285cb151835a6cbd59d6e003b77aa7.pngimage.thumb.png.d30fa7e2a3cfca016dc290d87e57fd3b.pngimage.thumb.png.427eb5a8740dab47baad6ef691805f94.png  image.thumb.png.834c8a5ae4fc03fd472a05565cd59cc8.png

Clearly a shift towards anticyclonic there in contrast to Tuesdays more cyclonic trend.

Will the anticyclone continue its growing influence and will it allign correctly for a plume by the end of the week?

Worth noting 20C uppers are delayed by 6 hours again. More anticyclonic weather does promote settled weather and a prospect of a sharper plume after but it may be a sluggish process and isn't without risk.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Don said:

These charts are definitely giving me cause for concern and I cannot get excited by them!  I feared back in February that 2019 could be an eye opener weather wise (for the wrong reasons) and it looks like I may have been correct, sadly!

If you can't get excited about them charts Don, how about these ones.... Ohhhhh yehhhhh 

gfs-1-102.png

gfs-1-120.png

gfs-1-138.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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10 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

The raw temperatures are being shown in the low to mid 20s across southern England throughout the week despite uppers into the 20s

It's quite possible that it is correct for some locations. If cloud cover is problematic, then temperatures will be highly suppressed. It's not exactly a high resolution model, so it can't pick out these areas very well. Also, analysing each run with a fine toothed comb is asking for trouble. You're better off comparing 12Z's with 12Z's or 00Z's with 00Z's.

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58 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Someone is going to have a lot of egg on their face next week. I'm guessing it will be the models going for highs of 24c with uppers of 27c.

They can only show what they are programmed to show based on the start data and algorithms they use to work out what may happen from that point?

It's the same old challenge here in the UK being a small island trying to pinpoint or weather is very hard beyond a couple of days.

Today was a lovely day and it was only 21 degrees in my area so I'll happily take 25 and if it gets hotter it's a bonus.

It's looking like it will, it's rare for the big 3 to agree beyond 48 hours so will have to wait until midweek to see what is in store for next weekend.

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For people wondering about the the Surface temperatures being suppressed its quite a plausible outcome. Soundings show there is a strong EML in place and given the cold SST's there will probably a lot of convective debris and strata-clu riding atop the θ-E advection from France. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Agree with John Holmes here. Until the low level flow hits SEly, the uppers will matter not one jot.

I've studied the surface flow and winds take a detour down through the N sea then across the UK. So whilst uppers may be off the scale, we run the real risk of surface temperatures maxing out around the mid 20s for much of next week. 

This is because at ground level, not only do you have the surface flow off a (relatively) cold body of water, those uppers will ensure the flow is also moisture laden at ground level which will preclude the usual ground-up heating process via insolation.

Edited by CreweCold

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My god this coming week could turn out week of nothingness!!!!just took a look at the gfs 18z and the highest temp we get is 25 or 26 degrees and thats on saturday!!!after all that hyping up we could end up with your bog standard weather!!

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god this coming week could turn out week of nothingness!!!!just took a look at the gfs 18z and the highest temp we get is 25 or 26 degrees and thats on saturday!!!after all that hyping up we could end up with your bog standard weather!!

That’s still very pleasant and I would say far better than if temperatures were in the 30s. Furthermore that’s still above average and so not bog standard weather by any means.

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god this coming week could turn out week of nothingness!!!!just took a look at the gfs 18z and the highest temp we get is 25 or 26 degrees and thats on saturday!!!after all that hyping up we could end up with your bog standard weather!!

You wait a life time for them uppers and look what we get for our moneys worth

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Just now, 38.5*C said:

You wait a life time for them uppers and look what we get for our moneys worth

Tell me bout it!!!thats the first time i would have ever seen uppers of that kind and get no real hot temps with it!!ive had uppers of 10 degrees and got close to the 30 degrees before so it would be really dissapointing!!

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I'm not taking any real notice of the surface temperatures shown at the minute. Simply because I don't believe they're correct. I think they're being significantly underdone. 

 

We know the heat is coming, let's just not analyse every run in major detail.

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god this coming week could turn out week of nothingness!!!!just took a look at the gfs 18z and the highest temp we get is 25 or 26 degrees and thats on saturday!!!after all that hyping up we could end up with your bog standard weather!!

25 or 26 is well above average, and I certainly wouldn't make that call on the back of the 18z..as for hyping, we do it all winter... Emotions run a little to high to the point some will start saying its not gonna happen, on the back of one run! All the output today has been a success, swings and roundabouts here.... There will be little tweaks along the way, sometimes favourable, sometimes not.... I certainly wouldn't lose any sleep over the 18z run though... Keep a cool head, we have plenty of time to put our blood pressure through the roof in the winter season.... 🌞💯

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Posted (edited)

For an insight into my concerns about the delays of notable heat just compare the charts that were being put out for Wednesday evening earlier in the week, compared to what is shown now...

image.thumb.png.4a2d710167f3d0c701c8f894cd3d0edf.pngimage.thumb.png.4a8178724ecb46fbf2acef0e67a61c96.png 

We need to see the heat being moved forward in time with each run, not remaining stuck on the same timestep.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Lol what happened to the gfs? Now showing max temps of 22 degrees, that run only had 1 day where it could hit 30 and that’s on the Friday, most of the week hovers around 20 to 24 degrees 

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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

For an insight into my concerns about the delays of notable heat just compare the charts that were being put out for Wednesday evening earlier in the week, compared to what is shown now...

image.thumb.png.4a2d710167f3d0c701c8f894cd3d0edf.pngimage.thumb.png.4a8178724ecb46fbf2acef0e67a61c96.png 

We need to see the heat being moved forward in time with each run, not remaining stuck on the same timestep.

Folk are starting to dissect every single run now to look for little faults.. And the 18z must be the most prone for error runs of all time... I can't see that many problems with the overall output today.... People are actually starting to nit pick now with a fine comb.... Over analizing every microscale detail... 

gfs-1-138 (1).png

UW144-7.gif

ECM0-144 (1).gif

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Folk are starting to dissect every single run now to look for little faults.. And the 18z must be the most prone for error runs of all time... I can't see that many problems with the overall output today.... People are actually starting to nit pick now with a fine comb.... Over analizing every microscale detail... 

But what I'm showing really isn't limited to the 18z and its fine details that make or break unusual spells of weather. That is something we should all know.

As I mentioned earlier, noteworthy spells of weather will never happen if their onset keeps getting dealyed by 6 hours with every run. It will only get closer once we start seeing these same charts at the same timestep. Monday and Tuesday are looking unsettled now and if last weeks output had persisted the heatwave would be established by Tuesday.

The heat could very easily get bottled up over France and we are left with the remains of a plume to the far SE that is weaker in intensity.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

But what I'm showing really isn't limited to the 18z and its fine details that make or break unusual spells of weather. That is something we should all know.

As I mentioned earlier, noteworthy spells of weather will never happen if their onset keeps getting dealyed by 6 hours with every run. It will only get closer once we start seeing these same charts at the same timestep.

The heat could very easily get bottled up over France and we are left with the remains of a plume to the far SE that is weaker in intensity.

The theory seems to be if it can go wrong... It will go wrong in the uk.. The models don't handle plumes very well, much like they don't handle significant cold spells in winter.. I don't see anything to get alarmed by just yet... But I stand to be corrected if tomorrow mornings output has really backtracked.... 😉

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Agree with John Holmes here. Until the low level flow hits SEly, the uppers will matter not one jot.

I've studied the surface flow and winds take a detour down through the N sea then across the UK. So whilst uppers may be off the scale, we run the real risk of surface temperatures maxing out around the mid 20s for much of next week. 

This is because at ground level, not only do you have the surface flow off a (relatively) cold body of water, those uppers will ensure the flow is also moisture laden at ground level which will preclude the usual ground-up heating process via insolation.

You make a good point, however wasn’t John’s point more in relation to the east coast? Completely agree that an onshore surface level wind flow from the North Sea will suppress temperatures from what they would be if from a more SE’rly direction. However it does seem odd that projected temperatures for places further inland are barely any higher than the 850 temps, which are forecast to be exceptional.

Edited by danm

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