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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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ECM looks magic, but I smell downgrades in the air lingering for the next run, its like a very strong unpleasant scented bouquet catching my nose. We'll see...

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Just now, 38.5*C said:

ECM looks magic, but I smell downgrades in the air lingering for the next run, its like a very strong unpleasant scented bouquet catching my nose. We'll see...

On another forum they are saying the ECM only has raw temps of 24C in London next Friday. Surely not!

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It’s not as simple as just using the 850s as an estimate. As others have pointed out, 850s through  the hot spell last summer weren’t anything special and we got plenty of days in the low 30s - strong anticyclone and upper ridge giving home grown heat.

In a straight slack s/se flow with uppers 20-25c you’d probably expect 35c as a minimum, and who knows as the maximum!

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Posted (edited)

Potentially Epic Ecm 12z ensemble mean..Fan-Tastic plume direct hit from wed / sat..so like the operational the heat continues next saturday..and there's a strong azores ridge at the end so we can do this all again in early July hopefully!!!!!!!!!!👍🔥😁..now we just need the surface wind flow and cloud amounts..and lots of other factors to behave themselves!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!🤪

EDM0-120.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-240.gif

ways-cool-summer-fans-2017-swan.jpg

Edited by Jon Snow

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

On another forum they are saying the ECM only has raw temps of 24C in London next Friday. Surely not!

FI still anyway, if cloudy could be 24 degrees aye, but if clear will be mid 30's

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

On another forum they are saying the ECM only has raw temps of 24C in London next Friday. Surely not!

This is absolutely true. Is the impact of a keen North Sea wind going to peg back temps? We'll only find out for sure later in the week. But a keen east wind will mean interesting fohen effects to the west... 

Edited by Man With Beard

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12 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

ECM looks magic, but I smell downgrades in the air lingering for the next run, its like a very strong unpleasant scented bouquet catching my nose. We'll see...

Hey 38.5... There is an old saying.... Once you reach the top there is only one way to go.... Or is that when you reach the bottom... Same thing applies though... 😉

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is absolutely true. Is the impact of a keen North Sea wind going to peg back temps? We'll only find out for sure later in the week. But a keen east wind will mean interesting fohen effects to the west... 

Even with an onshore wind from the North Sea, with 22c-24c 850’s surely the maxes won’t be as low as 24c in London? I’d expect it to possibly peg temperatures back by a few degrees, e.g. 30c instead of 35c), but not 24c. 

There was a 3/4 day spell last summer when we had an easterly breeze which saw Porthmadog in NW Wales top the temperature charts, getting into the low 30’s, and here in London it was cooler, but still 27-29c (with far lower 850’s). 

Edited by danm

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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is absolutely true. Is the impact of a keen North Sea wind going to peg back temps? We'll only find out for sure later in the week. But a keen east wind will mean interesting fohen effects to the west... 

That would be a serious waste of amazing uppers,

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Doubt that. Met office forecasting 30-34c midweek onwards, so I’d ignore that raw data. No way it’ll be 24c Friday with that chart.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, danm said:

Even with an onshore wind from the North Sea, with 22c-24c 850’s surely the maxes won’t be as low as 24c in London? I’d expect it to possibly peg temperatures back by a few degrees, e.g. 30c instead of 35c), but not 24c. 

There was a 3/4 day spell last summer when we had an easterly breeze which saw Porthmadog in NW Wales top the temperature charts, getting into the low 30’s, and here in London it was cooler, but still 27-29c (with far lower 850’s). 

Precisely my thoughts too. In fact I'm a little frightened by ECM's charts for Friday. Uppers on the Welsh coast touch 27C - add a fohen effect... assuming the upper air temps are right, mathematically you get to a temperature in the low 40Cs somewhere like Porthmadog but surely, surely not...? 

Edited by Man With Beard

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Re the temperatures on the east coast IF the surface wind is off the N Sea, either due to the isobars or in a sea breeze.

The 850 mb temperature will have little effect on the surface in these conditions in my view. The patest values I have seen, and not sure how accurate they are, suggest 12 C off N Yorks to 14 off East Anglia.

Values well in excess of this will be the main driver, if not cancelled out by any breeze from off the land. I would think that 8-10 C is most often the difference between land and sea temperature that will start to initiate a sea breeze. So some of the ideas of 25C+ may be a bit high. Interesting even so to see what coastal stations do reach.

The link below is the Met Fax from last night for Wednesday. Complicated by fronts and with a very slight isobar flow from a westerly point in the north but none in the south.

Sorry if this clutters up the thread.

It certainly is an interesting spell for next week and I wonder how accurate any of the models turn out to be, be it T, Td or rainfall.

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Want to enter the temperature forecasting competition?

 

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So the fun continues with ICON 18z.  only runs to T120 but it's a belter nonetheless:

image.thumb.jpg.66cb5267abcf94c1785f7ba86c04c9d8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c338b7e4486c1a07e6b1079f4dc34b9b.jpg

This stuff is in the reliable now!!!!!

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I'm watching this with great interest.Im no meteorologist,but the BBC are saying 25 midweek?.They keep going lower,and lower?.

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So the fun continues with ICON 18z.  only runs to T120 but it's a belter nonetheless:

image.thumb.jpg.66cb5267abcf94c1785f7ba86c04c9d8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c338b7e4486c1a07e6b1079f4dc34b9b.jpg

This stuff is in the reliable now!!!!!

Cant remember a time In my lifetime , that I have seen 850's like that , can only ever remember 20c 850's clipping SE . For places like Manchester that are fairly sheltered , temp records will likely be broken for areas in Northern England

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Someone is going to have a lot of egg on their face next week. I'm guessing it will be the models going for highs of 24c with uppers of 27c.

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2 minutes ago, Big daddy 49 said:

I'm watching this with great interest.Im no meteorologist,but the BBC are saying 25 midweek?.They keep going lower,and lower?.

Think they've got the first digit wrong, they meant 35, I think!

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3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

27C 850s in Wales next week, but ecm raw have maxes of around 24C.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/temperature-850hpa/20190628-1800z.html

Find it bizarre. By far the highest 850hpa temperatures I’ve ever seen across the UK but surface temperatures not much above average. I realise wind direction and cloud cover can suppress temperatures, but that is ridiculous.

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Find it bizarre. By far the highest 850hpa temperatures I’ve ever seen across the UK but surface temperatures not much above average. I realise wind direction and cloud cover can suppress temperatures, but that is ridiculous.

Thats why im thinking places in the West , and further North will do rather well as further away from any onshore breeze .

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Just now, BlackburnChris said:

Thats why im thinking places in the West , and further North will do rather well as further away from any onshore breeze .

Possible fohn effect also.

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On the subject of temperatures, this day saw temperatures of 33C in Hull from my weather station and this site backs my reading up from Humberside airport. Look at the T850s though. The preceding weeks were also cool and fairly wet.

https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/06-2011/ws-33735.html

image.thumb.png.85becc704739c7c55d1d4952524c549c.pngimage.thumb.png.eab7fc02746097c2410c4c12239ed60d.png 

So don't worry about forecast temperatures, they are way too low. Everyone should know that by now!

I reckon somewhere will see 28C on Monday, 29C on Tuesday, then rising into the 30s from Wednesday. 

image.thumb.png.c6690bb4f3e7b58bc6493d6ef2f00a29.png

This chart will easily see temperatures in excess of 30C in Western areas given how sheltered they are and potential Foehn effects. So don't read into the automated junk, watch the predicted temps shoot up a day beforehand.

I feel a bit more reassured from the 12z output. Can't see a low pressure slicing through now so the remaining question is whether the high on Wednesday alligns correctly to give us a big plume for the end of the week. I think it will but I will wait till the end of Sunday before calling it...

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Precisely my thoughts too. In fact I'm a little frightened by ECM's charts for Friday. Uppers on the Welsh coast touch 27C - add a fohen effect... assuming the upper air temps are right, mathematically you get to a temperature in the low 40Cs somewhere like Porthmadog but surely, surely not...? 

These charts are definitely giving me cause for concern and I cannot get excited by them!  I feared back in February that 2019 could be an eye opener weather wise (for the wrong reasons) and it looks like I may have been correct, sadly!

Edited by Don

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