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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Pretty quick breakdown out West though. You would have to think the breakdown won't happen that fast

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.e2401adc6d24003becf7052d60529e07.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.69839dd146de52901a31a61433110f8d.jpg

Direct hit on this run, but previous runs have had a much wider plume, not sure if this is narrowing down on to 'the solution' or the natural variability?

Amazing charts, really hope it is extended into next weekend..don't want it to end just in time for the flippin weekend do we!!!!!👍

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144_mslp850.png?cb=2 168_mslp850.png?cb=2

ECM sure is impressively consistent with setting up a SSE to NNW plume orientation like this.

As the previous two runs have illustrated and now this new 12z too, that trough by Greenland interacting with the cut-off low really is a fascinating addition to the proceedings in terms of what it can potentially set in motion for the weekend.

A lot will depend on two main factors; how well LP consolidates out west of the UK and how strong the ridge is as it becomes isolated just E or NE of the UK.

This run doesn't consolidate the low much, but the ridge is strong enough that the plume makes an immense surge northward anyway. This is one of the best outcomes for northward plume extent through the UK; a more consolidated low would likely tilt the plume at least a little eastward instead.

The only more extreme outcome I can think of is if the lows out west organise into one stretched-out feature aligned NNW to SSE, but that would mean yet another unusual event to coincide with the exceptional heat plume. So it'd be very surprising to see.


Anyway, on this run, my homeland spends two days in a row with noon 850s of 23*C. Regardless of how hot the surface wind flows and humidity allow it to become beneath that, such an outcome would be very memorable indeed for my statistically-minded brain.

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20c 850hpa in Northern Scotland on Saturday, unprecedented stuff. May never see charts like this again.. to get 20c clipping SE England is extremely rare in itself. 🙂

168_mslp850uk-1.png

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Well that’s 3 models at just +120 going for 3 days of exceptional uppers, absolutely incredible! Thursday-Saturday seems to be historic potentially. 

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Pretty quick breakdown out West though. You would have to think the breakdown won't happen that fast

The high is situated further north on this run and says....

download.jpg.e8d6782bac798aa837a9135ec6a1d6f6.jpg

i would think there is some sort of undercut happening at 168,but nope at 192,the low heads NE but that's a long way off.

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1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

May never see charts like this again.. 

168_mslp850uk-1.png

Oh I think we will see charts like this again..tomorrow, monday, tuesday..etc👍😜

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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Oh I think we will see charts like this again..tomorrow, monday, tuesday..etc👍😜

Apart from this week ;) you got me there

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The high is situated further north on this run and says....

download.jpg.e8d6782bac798aa837a9135ec6a1d6f6.jpg

i would think there is some sort of undercut happening at 168,but nope at 192,the low heads NE but that's a long way off.

Indeed- a moderation of the 850s but no Atlantic breakthrough out until the start of the working week- 

Beautiful EC det -

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If the models are correct, the June record will go, 100%.

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7 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Apart from this week ;) you got me there

Not sure about that, I think they will become more common in the years ahead.

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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If the models are correct, the June record will go, 100%.

I’d guess Saturday would be the day? Slightly lower uppers but a better wind direction and a slacker flow. 35-37c on the cards by the weekend, that’s not even an exaggeration.

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I’d guess Saturday would be the day? Slightly lower uppers but a better wind direction and a slacker flow. 35-37c on the cards by the weekend, that’s not even an exaggeration.

June record under serious threat now.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 38c recorded in London or the south east.

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Posted (edited)

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.61eff72a4f4266b29426ecc6a26d2592.jpg

Looks like summer is on the way, not just a hot thundery plume, but in line with what the long range seasonal models highlighted as a probability....I will have more to say on this, but after next weeks weather which currently deserves full attention...

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.61eff72a4f4266b29426ecc6a26d2592.jpg

Looks like summer is on the way, not just a hot thundery plume, but in line with what the long range seasonal models highlighted as a probability....I will have more to say on this, but after next weeks weather which deserves full attention...

Could be a rinse and repeat if the azores high builds in properly, reloads galore!!👍

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Some of these charts are simply off the scale. How hot would it get should a plume like this one arrive in early August?:shok:

ECU1-168.GIF?22-0&key=f17cd71d2c35af65aa  144_mslp850uk-1.thumb.png.0fd8de8da4fbd0images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRGKbTIBN50wVKBu0Le8-1

 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Some of these charts are simply off the scale. How hot would it get should a plume like this one arrive in early August?:shok:

ECU1-168.GIF?22-0&key=f17cd71d2c35af65aa  144_mslp850uk-1.thumb.png.0fd8de8da4fbd0images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRGKbTIBN50wVKBu0Le8-1

 

more unlikely of course but 40 degrees by 5th day definitely, even more unlikely late Aug but 42 degrees maybe then

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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So beautiful i want to frame it and put it on the wall!!😍

168_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

168_thick.png

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9 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

So beautiful i want to frame it and put it on the wall!!😍

168_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

168_thick.png

The depth of heat is staggering. 20 uppers in scotland. Places like leeds and manchester could see there records been broken 

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Some of these charts are simply off the scale. How hot would it get should a plume like this one arrive in early August?:shok:

ECU1-168.GIF?22-0&key=f17cd71d2c35af65aa  144_mslp850uk-1.thumb.png.0fd8de8da4fbd0images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRGKbTIBN50wVKBu0Le8-1

 

An eye opener indeed.  We really are starting to feel the force of climate change now!  If this upcoming spell is the start of a hot summer kicking in, 40c really is likely to be breached at some point IMHO before the end of August.  We have already had 70f in February, so 40c shouldn’t come as a surprise during a hot summer.  June 1995 had a cool first half, but a hot spell at the end made way for a hot July and August.

Edited by Don

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ECM ensemble mean has the +20c isotherm into the UK at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.2be6b2cccbed993c2fb0b1723144b390.jpg

Im as flabbergasted at this as I was with the 0z to be honest....any road, it is going to happen!

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No complaints from me with the mean... Looks hot to start... And high pressure is ready to pounce by the end... 

EDM0-96.gif

EDM0-120.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Good support from the ecm mean to push away the really high uppers at T192 . Still warm tho . 

F0278948-DBEB-4653-90FF-1C113535243C.png

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In Late June how much can you add to the 850HPA temp, so if 25c 850HPA occurs as some models what would the likely temp be.

(Not saying it will happen exactly like this of course)

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4 minutes ago, J10 said:

In Late June how much can you add to the 850HPA temp, so if 25c 850HPA occurs as some models what would the likely temp be.

(Not saying it will happen exactly like this of course)

Pretty sure this time last year uppers were around 12'C and surface temperatures exceeded 30'C. That was under high pressure with low humidity, clear skies and light winds though.

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