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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
    11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    Well all I’m going to say is ... it’s currently 24°C...GFS thinks it should be 17! I know what I think is going to happen with that this week. 

    Yup what I said earlier today 

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    Potential windchill for next Wednesday 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, at least more plumes haven't been removed from the table. Not saying it will happen, but a period of extended plumescence looks far more likely than does any repeat of 2007 or 2012?:yahoo:

    h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    14 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

    Yup what I said earlier today 

    Only three places, all near to London, bettered or equalled 23C today...So the models weren't all that far-off after all.

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    but a period of extended plumescence looks far more likely

      

    As long as it's not an extended period of tumescence!??

    Anyway, these charts from the ukmo 12h should warm the cockles!??

    UW96-7.gif

    UW120-7.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-7.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

     

    Yeh and thats what the ecm is about to show in an hour??☀️?!!hoping for a direct hit and no messing around!!

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    Snipped removed quote.
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    These are the best mean charts I've seen since..the 6z!!!??

    Prepare to roast next week, at least across the s / se but probably quite widely actually during the second half of the working week!!!!!!!?

    GFSAVGEU12_54_2.png

    GFSAVGEU12_78_2.png

    GFSAVGEU12_78_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_102_2.png

    GFSAVGEU12_102_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_126_2.png

    GFSAVGEU12_126_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_150_2.png

    GFSAVGEU12_150_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    What are the chances of this developing into another July 2006 dry and hot period lasting for several days in July and beyond? Are we close by or are we far from it?  There seems to be a good deal of High pressure to our East that could aid our chances if the dreaded HLB can do one once and for all. Also lots of the long range models in Spring were focusing on a ridge to the East with lots of S'ly and SE'ly influence.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well folks, here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles. And what a mighty fine bunch of stonkers they are too!:yahoo:

    t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

    prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

    As for 35C+ sweatiness: image.png.d70c58ce951db5ddebc30fec67e9f160.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    No more on Meto please. If your post has gone it's because it should not belong in here.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    With every single GEFS member having +20C uppers into the UK at T144 (yes, I checked!) let's see what the ECM 12z comes up with, here at T96, compared with UKMO at same time:

    image.thumb.jpg.26bdbd7c4cb9bea563a178c40d22104d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.23dc47bf5e0f99085c0e1cc7b235e680.jpg

    Wouldn't want to split the difference there, so onwards....

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gem 12z also looks very plumescent as next week goes on..the working week, especially between wed / fri looks increasingly hot and sultry..change to cooler and fresher from the west next weekend but no guarantee of that happening!!?

    gem-1-72.png

    gem-1-96.png

    gem-0-96.png

    gem-1-120.png

    gem-0-120.png

    gem-1-144.png

    gem-0-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Moving on, and the ECM T120 has the heat in!

    image.thumb.jpg.7ab06d7a455655078c4be2097b7a5d9b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c20e7ce6c1cf0691b5525ec8d4f029ff.jpg

    Low still cut off, pump away...think this is going to be a hot one!!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.292163dbbd7b149c6c401a19bdd568e9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.54ad49e3ea24994f643da40e0338781d.jpg

    The way that cut off low is handled is absolutely key, I'm buying ECM over GFS!

    There's some heat there!?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Incredible ecm again. Probably the hottest uppers to ever hit the UK?

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.292163dbbd7b149c6c401a19bdd568e9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.54ad49e3ea24994f643da40e0338781d.jpg

    The way that cut off low is handled is absolutely key, I'm buying ECM over GFS!

    North Sea flow cut off away from the east too. Places like W Wales could see mid 30s on this chart, I feel. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Ecm 12z has 26c uppers across the south west... one of the best chances we're ever gonna get of smashing the record. 

    144_mslp850uk-1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T168:

    image.thumb.jpg.e2401adc6d24003becf7052d60529e07.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.69839dd146de52901a31a61433110f8d.jpg

    Direct hit on this run, but previous runs have had a much wider plume, not sure if this is narrowing down on to 'the solution' or the natural variability?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Ecm 12z has 26c uppers across the south west... one of the best chances we're ever gonna get of smashing the record. 

    144_mslp850uk-1.png

    Cor! That's a chart and a half. Another stunning run! Well and truly blowtorched ?️

    I can't wait for people to tell me that we'll have highs of 24C on that day ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Plenty of heat from ECM, surely to god mid 30s somewhere! I've got lots of gardening duties next week.. I may need to revise my plan..... 

    ECM0-96.gif

    ECM0-120.gif

    ECM0-144.gif

    ECM0-168.gif

    thumb_summer-is-coming-worksmarternottharder-redneck-ingenuity-drop-a-like-20996582.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T168:

    image.thumb.jpg.e2401adc6d24003becf7052d60529e07.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.69839dd146de52901a31a61433110f8d.jpg

    Direct hit on this run, but previous runs have had a much wider plume, not sure if this is narrowing down on to 'the solution' or the natural variability?

    Can’t see much difference to the 0z myself:’

    ECM0-168_kca5.GIF

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    Message added by Paul

    This thread = Models, models and more models
    Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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