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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Well all I’m going to say is ... it’s currently 24°C...GFS thinks it should be 17! I know what I think is going to happen with that this week. 

Yup what I said earlier today 

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Well, at least more plumes haven't been removed from the table. Not saying it will happen, but a period of extended plumescence looks far more likely than does any repeat of 2007 or 2012?:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yup what I said earlier today 

Only three places, all near to London, bettered or equalled 23C today...So the models weren't all that far-off after all.

Edited by Ed Stone

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

but a period of extended plumescence looks far more likely

  

As long as it's not an extended period of tumescence!👍😉

Anyway, these charts from the ukmo 12h should warm the cockles!😲😁

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Yeh and thats what the ecm is about to show in an hour😈🔥☀️🌡!!hoping for a direct hit and no messing around!!

Edited by Polar Maritime
Snipped removed quote.

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These are the best mean charts I've seen since..the 6z!!!👍😉

Prepare to roast next week, at least across the s / se but probably quite widely actually during the second half of the working week!!!!!!!🔥

GFSAVGEU12_54_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_78_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_78_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_102_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_102_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_126_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_126_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_150_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_150_1.png

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What are the chances of this developing into another July 2006 dry and hot period lasting for several days in July and beyond? Are we close by or are we far from it?  There seems to be a good deal of High pressure to our East that could aid our chances if the dreaded HLB can do one once and for all. Also lots of the long range models in Spring were focusing on a ridge to the East with lots of S'ly and SE'ly influence.

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Well folks, here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles. And what a mighty fine bunch of stonkers they are too!:yahoo:

t2mLondon.png  t850London.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

As for 35C+ sweatiness: image.png.d70c58ce951db5ddebc30fec67e9f160.png

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Posted (edited)

No more on Meto please. If your post has gone it's because it should not belong in here.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Posted (edited)

With every single GEFS member having +20C uppers into the UK at T144 (yes, I checked!) let's see what the ECM 12z comes up with, here at T96, compared with UKMO at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.26bdbd7c4cb9bea563a178c40d22104d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.23dc47bf5e0f99085c0e1cc7b235e680.jpg

Wouldn't want to split the difference there, so onwards....

Edited by Mike Poole

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The Gem 12z also looks very plumescent as next week goes on..the working week, especially between wed / fri looks increasingly hot and sultry..change to cooler and fresher from the west next weekend but no guarantee of that happening!!👍

gem-1-72.png

gem-1-96.png

gem-0-96.png

gem-1-120.png

gem-0-120.png

gem-1-144.png

gem-0-144.png

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Posted (edited)

Moving on, and the ECM T120 has the heat in!

image.thumb.jpg.7ab06d7a455655078c4be2097b7a5d9b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c20e7ce6c1cf0691b5525ec8d4f029ff.jpg

Low still cut off, pump away...think this is going to be a hot one!!

Edited by Mike Poole

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Good consistency from the ECM.

ECM1-120_nog3.GIF

ECM0-120_dle3.GIF

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Posted (edited)

ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.292163dbbd7b149c6c401a19bdd568e9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.54ad49e3ea24994f643da40e0338781d.jpg

The way that cut off low is handled is absolutely key, I'm buying ECM over GFS!

There's some heat there!😎

Edited by Mike Poole

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24’C uppers for the South West by Friday.ECM0-144_cwy8.GIF

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Incredible ecm again. Probably the hottest uppers to ever hit the UK?

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.292163dbbd7b149c6c401a19bdd568e9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.54ad49e3ea24994f643da40e0338781d.jpg

The way that cut off low is handled is absolutely key, I'm buying ECM over GFS!

North Sea flow cut off away from the east too. Places like W Wales could see mid 30s on this chart, I feel. 

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Awesome ECM. As we saw last winter the icon is a good heads up for what ECM will show later. 

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ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.e2401adc6d24003becf7052d60529e07.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.69839dd146de52901a31a61433110f8d.jpg

Direct hit on this run, but previous runs have had a much wider plume, not sure if this is narrowing down on to 'the solution' or the natural variability?

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2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ecm 12z has 26c uppers across the south west... one of the best chances we're ever gonna get of smashing the record. 

144_mslp850uk-1.png

Cor! That's a chart and a half. Another stunning run! Well and truly blowtorched 🌡️

I can't wait for people to tell me that we'll have highs of 24C on that day 😜

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Plenty of heat from ECM, surely to god mid 30s somewhere! I've got lots of gardening duties next week.. I may need to revise my plan..... 

ECM0-96.gif

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168.gif

thumb_summer-is-coming-worksmarternottharder-redneck-ingenuity-drop-a-like-20996582.png

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ECM for next Saturday : 22/23C uppers, slack SEly away from east coast - if storms stayed away, for me the all-time record would go on this chart :

ECU1-168.GIF?22-0

ECU0-168.GIF?22-0

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.e2401adc6d24003becf7052d60529e07.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.69839dd146de52901a31a61433110f8d.jpg

Direct hit on this run, but previous runs have had a much wider plume, not sure if this is narrowing down on to 'the solution' or the natural variability?

Can’t see much difference to the 0z myself:’

ECM0-168_kca5.GIF

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