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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You would of thought with these uppers it would be sweltering but mid twenties on the 2m temps . Suits me fine the less heat the better . 

B21B92CC-4049-4FB2-8D0B-128A469455DC.png

2868BB86-D3AC-4A69-8B9B-C888B475ED25.png

The usual under cooking from the Gfs, probably several degrees higher in reality?..surface wind flow and cloud cover could be the reason but the gfs time and time again is just pants when it comes to maxima in summer especially..that's my perception anyway...it does make me wonder whether this is another garden path job from some of the models and that the event may not be an event, certainly if the meh temps shown on that chart are accurate.

Edited by Jon Snow

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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You would of thought with these uppers it would be sweltering but mid twenties on the 2m temps . Suits me fine the less heat the better . 

B21B92CC-4049-4FB2-8D0B-128A469455DC.png

2868BB86-D3AC-4A69-8B9B-C888B475ED25.png

Island climate for you. Uppers 12 degrees or more higher than those today yet surface temperatures not much higher.

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

That’s 100% wrong. No way will the temps me that low.

I have been thinking the same that it’s gotta be wrong but meto app and bbc have got around the same temps . As @knockerexplained it’s not all bout 850 temps . I think some are gonna be disappointed this week , they have the bar set to high . Somewhere will hit 30 but I don’t think mid 30’s will be reached . 

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A few posts have had to go, Posts will go missing if they aren't Model Output Discussion. 

Thanks.

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8 minutes ago, Onding said:

I understand the caution (we've been burned before!), but we have all the models pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet with an initial glance of the plume and thundery troughs for us, then a more sustained feed of hotter air off the continent as the low to the SW gets cut off and draws up the plume with an increasingly hot SE feed.

To my eyes, we need the low cut off first before we draw the really hot air in, hence why we plume later on in the week.

Aye, I think we are leading to a big plume eventually. My concern is that any notable heat keeps being put back 6 hours.

If every run keeps putting it back 6 hours then we will be chasing it forever....

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Well, I don't want to seem like I'm 'ramping', so I'll content myself by saying that next Saturday might be rather warm!:shok:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Posted (edited)

sounding.thumb.png.c9239171b11d5308f704b26ecc1f11dc.png855708339_sounding2.thumb.png.64d3b09716bb4d8484d28f2100bb8906.png

Edited by knocker

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I have been thinking the same that it’s gotta be wrong but meto app and bbc have got around the same temps . As @knockerexplained it’s not all bout 850 temps . I think some are gonna be disappointed this week , they have the bar set to high . Somewhere will hit 30 but I don’t think mid 30’s will be reached . 

You’re right, it’s not just about 850s. Early part of the week will probably be less hot than originally thought with the main plume later in the week. But those GFS temps seem excessively low.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

You’re right, it’s not just about 850s. Early part of the week will probably be less hot than originally thought with the main plume later in the week. But those GFS temps seem excessively low.

Agree. We are unlikely to see temps in the 30s until later in the week but 22-25c seems too low. With some decent sunshine places in the SE/S should hit the high 20s on Monday and Tuesday. 

Edited by danm

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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

You’re right, it’s not just about 850s. Early part of the week will probably be less hot than originally thought with the main plume later in the week. But those GFS temps seem excessively low.

Agreed, 19c is below average..lol, some event eh...think you're right, the models have shifted to more of a back loaded heat for later next week instead of early.

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Think ecm will be a direct hit tonight!!even better than ukmo maybe aswell!!i be happy if it just continues from this mornings 00z!!!unbelieveable charts right now!!poor gfs has come back crawling!!ecm is defo leading the way right now!!

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Posted (edited)

GFS 12z rolling out and I refuse to believe the ridiculously low 2m temps with the 15 to 20C uppers. Its like Beast from the East in mid January and overnight temps not falling below 5C

Edited by 38.5*C

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Nice trend away from melt and bake outlook as it keeps being pushed back. God bless the north sea me thinks as we pick us a good breeze. The reverse of Winter when us coldies see their beast from the east disappear with a whimper. I actually like the outlook at the moment low 20's here for most part next and a nice breeze .South and west looks warmer. Saturday does look bake and melt but I'm off work so can keep cool. Question what does this do for the Storm idea?

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Those fretting about surface temperatures might want to take a look at the summer moan and ramp threat. I’ve posted some screenshots of the Met Office projected temperature for Monday to Wednesday. Pretty different to the raw model output!

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1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 12z rolling out and I refuse to believe the ridiculously low 2m temps with the 15 to 20C uppers. Its like Beast from the East in mid January and overnight temps not falling below freezing.

Worth noting - certainly for the 06z GFS (not yet commenting on the 12z) an issue for suppression of temps until later on this week is excessive cloud cover.....Those who subscribe to NWx will have seen this on the more indepth model output charts than the freebies.....freely available FAX charts also show an almost quasi-stationary front draping the spine of the country until thursday.......In our climate, without direct insolation, 25C+ is very hard to achieve....With more in the way of sunshine later on in the week towards next weekend, temperatures will rocket.....Believe me though, low to mid 20's under heavy cloud with high humidity will feel darned warm and for quite a few, unpleasant 

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Best to ignore model predicted temps still. Met have tweeted mid 30s by midweek, which I think we all agree is much more likely than these ludicrous gfs runs showing low 20s!

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Best to ignore model predicted temps still. Met have tweeted mid 30s by midweek, which I think we all agree is much more likely than these ludicrous gfs runs showing low 20s!

Funny thing is its supposed to get hotter still by thur/fri !!!

Looking at ukmo i would suggest so..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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I don't no about you guys... But I'm eying up plume 2...high pressure looks to be gaining momentum.... 

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-1-252.png

gfs-1-288.png

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Posted (edited)

The GFS 12Z temperatures match what the ECM 00Z has done with temperatures - both have flows that go through the whole of the north sea without touching land (which actually isn't easy to achieve) - once that flow is cut off, the temperatures rocket back up. 

However, considering the Met Office are tweeting 33C for Tuesday and 34C for Wednesday, maybe this phenomena is getting poorly modelled. 

Headline for me tonight : temperature records are modelled to be under threat by Saturday, and maybe before that too. 

Edited by Man With Beard

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Posted (edited)

Well all I’m going to say is ... it’s currently 24°C...GFS thinks it should be 17! I know what I think is going to happen with that this week. 

Edited by Chris.R

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Funny thing is its supposed to get hotter still by thur/fri !!!

Looking at ukmo i would suggest so..

 

After all this discussion..it better be an event..or else!!!!👍😁

Broadly speaking the pattern next week hasn't changed, still warming up and becoming more humid, becoming hot for some, especially the s / se..31c 88f is the figure being hotly tipped..pardon the pun

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

Well apologies for my pessimism earlier. Although Monday and Tuesday are toned down the ensembles are at least really firming up.

The 20c isotherm is finally within the T96 range haha.

There has been 23 runs since this heatwave first started showing up on Monday... clearly fatigue is setting in...

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I don't no about you guys... But I'm eying up plume 2...high pressure looks to be gaining momentum.... 

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-1-252.png

gfs-1-288.png

Aye, I was wondering the same thing. Especially if the LP over Spain and France continues to 'hold up' the HP?

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, I was wondering the same thing. Especially if the LP over Spain and France continues to 'hold up' the HP?

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

All this talk of plume potential and we might in fact be sleepwalking into a sustained period of warm, dry and settled summer weather to begin July 😅

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

 

Yes, in total contrast to GFS, the scary thing is wednesdays projection, thur/fri, looking at NWP products this evening will get warmer still !!

Edited by Polar Maritime

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